Bright future for pupils within healthcare and technology

Those pupils who are studying to work within healthcare can expect a bright future. The lack of labour within this area is expected to be very significant eventually. This also applies to work within technology.

All in all, there will be a surplus of those with post secondary education and a shortage of those with upper secondary education up until 2030. The surplus of those with post secondary education above all applies to persons with incomplete higher education.

Lack of trained labour within healthcare and technology

The lack of labour for people who have been trained for work within healthcare and social services is assessed to be very significant in the long-term. The supply is growing but not at all as much as the demand. The demand is increasing sharply for by and large all educational groups within the healthcare sector. This applies to those with upper secondary education as well those with post secondary education. The demand for persons with upper secondary healthcare education is expected to increase particularly sharply, by nearly 50 percent.

…….and within technology

Unless the current education for technology is re-dimensioned and more young people choose this type of education, the current shortage will increase. At the upper secondary level, this applies mainly to persons with an education in manufacturing, while at the post secondary level this applies to engineers with Bachelor of Science degrees.

Increasing surplus for humanities and the arts

The surplus of those on the labour market with an education in the humanities or the arts will increase, particularly on the upper secondary level. The demand is no way near the interest of young people for the arts and the media. Even those with post secondary educations in the same areas can expect a difficult situation on the labour market.

The balance situation varies within social sciences, law, trade and administration

On the whole, supply matches the future demand for labour within these areas. However, there is a growing surplus of those with post secondary education and a growing shortage of those with upper secondary education in economics, trade and administration. This means that some of those with post secondary education may expect to work within other areas than those for which they are educated, or at a level they are over-qualified for.

Imbalances in the area of teaching

Supply and demand of persons with Bachelor of Education degrees is balanced on the whole. However, trends differ among different groups. Estimations show a considerable shortage for teachers in preschool and at leisure time centres, but a certain surplus of teachers with orientation in compulsory and upper secondary school.

Supply and demand of labour in 2030. Distribution and educational orientation

Definitions and explanations

Trends and Forecasts 2008 presents calculations of supply and demand of educated persons - with an outlook to the year 2030.

A detailed presentation of the current and future situations is given for 49 educational groups.

The report also includes different sections, among other things about higher education, the composition of the population and employment trends.

Some of the basic conditions for the assessments

1. The demand for labour on the whole is expected to increase by nearly 250 000 persons, or 6 percent, between 2006 and 2030.

2. Employment in the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to drop by slightly more than 100 000 persons between 2006 and 2030, while the private service sector is expected to increase by about 120 000 persons. The public service sector is expected to increase by about 240 000 persons up until 2030.

3. Concerning the estimates about demand, assumptions have been made about which types of education that are adequate for each occupational category. The adequate structure of the type of education per occupation is estimated to be reached in the year 2050. At that point in time, all gainfully employed persons within the occupation have in principle been recruited during the forecast period. Adequate type of education refers to an education that matches the competence requirements of the work.

4. The future supply of educated persons is based on the principle that the educational system remains unchanged during the forecast period, and that the educational choices of people and the percentage who complete their education do not change.

The aim of Statistics Sweden's calculations is to focus on the imbalances between supply and demand which appear to occur if development continues along the current path. No consideration has been taken to those adjustments between supply and demand which may occur, for instance a change in the choice of education or employers seeking personnel with other skills than those that are usually in demand.