Trends and Forecasts 2008 presents calculations of supply and demand of educated persons - with an outlook to the year 2030.
A detailed presentation of the current and future situations is given for 49 educational groups.
The report also includes different sections, among other things about higher education, the composition of the population and employment trends.
Some of the basic conditions for the assessments
1. The demand for labour on the whole is expected to increase by nearly 250 000 persons, or 6 percent, between 2006 and 2030.
2. Employment in the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to drop by slightly more than 100 000 persons between 2006 and 2030, while the private service sector is expected to increase by about 120 000 persons. The public service sector is expected to increase by about 240 000 persons up until 2030.
3. Concerning the estimates about demand, assumptions have been made about which types of education that are adequate for each occupational category. The adequate structure of the type of education per occupation is estimated to be reached in the year 2050. At that point in time, all gainfully employed persons within the occupation have in principle been recruited during the forecast period. Adequate type of education refers to an education that matches the competence requirements of the work.
4. The future supply of educated persons is based on the principle that the educational system remains unchanged during the forecast period, and that the educational choices of people and the percentage who complete their education do not change.
The aim of Statistics Sweden's calculations is to focus on the imbalances between supply and demand which appear to occur if development continues along the current path. No consideration has been taken to those adjustments between supply and demand which may occur, for instance a change in the choice of education or employers seeking personnel with other skills than those that are usually in demand.