Party Preference Survey May 2010

Statistics Sweden's Party Preference Survey shows that if a parliamentary election were to be held in May then the government parties (Centre Party, Liberal Party, Moderate Party and Christian Democrats) would receive approximately 44.2 percent of the votes. The opposition parties (Social Democrat, Left Party and Green Party) would have received approximately 50.2 percent of the votes.

This is a statistically significant increase for the government parties since the Party Preference Survey from November of 2009 and a statistically significant decrease from the parliamentary election of 2006. In May the Centre Party would have received 4.6 percent (±0.4), the Liberal Party 5.8 percent (±0.4), the Moderate Party 29.2 percent (±0.8) and the Christian Democrats 4.5 percent (±0.4).

This would not mean a statistically significant change for the opposition parties compared to the Party Preference Survey conducted in November, but would be a statistically significant increase compared to the parliamentary election of 2006. In May the Social Democrats would have received 33.8 percent (±0.9), the Left Party 5.6 percent (±0.5), and the Green Party 10.7 percent (±0.7).

In the event of an election in May, other parties would have received a 5.7 percent (±0.5) of the votes. Among the other parties the Sweden Democrats are clearly the largest. The party would receive 3.9 percent (±0.4) percent of the votes if an election were held in May. The Pirate Party dominates the remaining part of the other party's group.

The table below shows party estimates and estimates of change since the parliamentary election 2006 and the Party Preference Survey in November of 2009. An asterisk (*) is used to mark a statistically significant changes. For a more detailed summary of the interval for both percentual changes and estimates of change, see tables 2 and 3 in the Statistical Report.

Estimates of election results "if an election had been held today". May 2010

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few coming days?

Party	Estimate May 2010		Change since		Estimated percent								Election 2006
	Percent	Margin of error ^[1]	Election 2006	Nov 2009	Nov 2009	May 2009	Nov 2008	May 2008	Nov 2007	May 2007	Nov 2006	May 2006
C	4.6	±0.4	-3.3*	-0.4*	5.0	5.5	5.9	6.2	6.2	6.5	7.1	6.2	7.9
FP	5.8	±0.4	-1.7*	-0.7*	6.5	5.5	6.0	6.8	6.5	5.9	6.8	10.9	7.5
M	29.2	±0.8	3.0*	3.0*	26.2	29.9	24.8	22.4	22.6	23.9	24.9	25.9	26.2
KD	4.5	±0.4	-2.1*	-0.3	4.8	4.3	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.4	5.7	5.8	6.6
S	33.8	±0.9	-1.2*	-2.7*	36.5	36.6	42.3	44.7	45.9	45.0	40.4	37.5	35.0
V	5.6	±0.5	-0.3	0.5*	5.1	5.7	5.7	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.4	5.8	5.8
MP	10.7	±0.7	5.5*	2.3*	8.4	6.0	6.1	5.9	5.2	5.5	5.5	4.7	5.2
Other	5.7	±0.5	0.0	-1.8*	7.5	6.4	4.7	4.2	3.9	4.0	4.2	3.3	5.7

1)Margin of error applies to estimations of percentages and of changes.
*The change is statistically significant.

Figure 1 Net flows from the Riksdag election 2006 to May 2010

Figure - Figure 1 Net flows from the Riksdag election 2006 to May 2010

Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from the parliamentary election in 2006 to May 2010 for the various parties. The figures report significant net losses and net gains in percent of all submitted information on the chosen party in the parliamentary election in 2006 together with information on the parties which one would vote for in May 2010. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in the share of voters for the parties from the election in 2006 because there are also flows between parties and the "do not know" group. (Basis for table 21 in the Statistical Report)

Figure 2 Net flows from November 2009 to May 2010

Figure - Figure 2 Net flows from November 2009 to May 2010

Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows from November 2009 to May 2010 for the various parties. The figures report significant net loss and net gain percentages of all who have submitted party answers or answered "do not know" for the question on which party one would choose in an election upon each survey round. (Basis for table 22 in the Statistical Report)

Definitions and explanations

The party preference survey in May 2010 was conducted by telephone interviews of a national random probability sample consisting of 9 035 persons entitled to vote in the parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Of these persons, 15.0 percent could not be reached (including unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.5 percent were too ill to be interviewed and 13.6 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 32.1 percent. A total of 6 135 interviews were conducted. In addition, some persons did not want to answer certain questions. The interviews were conducted by telephone during the period 28 April - 30 May. The majority of the interviews were conducted during the first half of the measuring period. 70 percent of the interviews have been conducted up to and including 16 May. 89 percent of the interviews have been conducted up to and including 23 May.

The results are presented in intervals or point estimations ± margins of error. The interval that is created of the percent estimation ± margin of error here is a 95 percent confidence interval, which is an interval with a 95 percent probability including the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.