Increase in industrial production in July

Industrial production increased by 2.8 percent in seasonally adjusted figures in July compared to June. Comparing July with the same month of the previous year, industrial production increased by 8.2 percent in working day adjusted figures.

The production in the industry sub-sectors developed in different directions in July compared to June. The motor vehicle industry had the strongest development with an increase of 22.3 percent.

The development was positive when comparing the latest three month period, May-July, with the previous three month period. Production within industry increased by 1.1 percent.

Industrial production continued to develop positively on a yearly basis, but like last month, less strongly than earlier this year. Production within industry increased with 8.2 percent in July compared with the same month of the previous year. As previous months, development was the strongest in the electrical equipment industry with an increase of 39.9 percent.

The figures for July are preliminary. Since the previous publication the change in industrial production in June compared to May has been revised upwards by 0.5 percentage points amounting to a decrease of 2.8 percent. The change in the production in June compared to the same month of the previous year has been revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points amounting to an increase of 7.0 percent.

Percent changes in industrial production volume

NACE 2007	INDUSTRY TITLE	Share of value added 2010	Jul/Jun 2011 ^[1]	May-Jul/ Feb-Apr 2011 ^[1]	Jul 2011/ Jul 2010 ^[2]
B+C	Mines and quarries and manufacturing industry	100	2.8	1.1	8.2
-	Intermediate goods industry	43.8	1.1	0.5	6.0
-	Energy excl. section D	1.1	‑1.0	‑8.6	‑4.8
-	Capital goods industry	32.2	0.5	1.4	13.0
-	Non-durable consumer goods industry	20.4	6.1	1.1	9.1
-	Durable consumer goods industry	2.5	‑0.5	‑3.0	‑10.4
B	Mines and quarries	6.1	2.1	‑0.3	9.6
C	Manufacturing industry	93.9	1.7	1.0	7.1
10-12	Food product, beverage and tobacco industry	7.8	‑3.6	‑1.2	‑8.7
13-15	Industry for textile and leather products	0.8	‑5.9	‑2.8	‑14.2
16	Industry for wood and wood products	4.0	13.7	9.8	‑7.1
17	Industry for pulp, paper and paper products	6.8	‑3.4	‑2.7	‑8.4
18	Industry for printing and reproduction of recorded media	2.2	‑6.1	‑2.2	‑12.6
19	Industry for coke and refined petroleum products	1.1	‑0.9	‑8.3	‑4.8
20	Industry for chemicals	4.2	1.6	‑4.7	‑3.7
21	Industry for basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	9.0	17.5	4.2	33.5
22	Industry for rubber and plastic products	3.0	0.7	2.9	10.9
23	Industry for other non-metallic mineral products	2.5	‑6.0	11.1	1.3
24	Industry for basic metals	5.8	2.5	0.0	4.2
25	Industry for manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	9.1	‑2.0	2.3	‑1.6
26	Industry for manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	6.9	6.2	‑1.1	22.3
27	Industry for manufacture of electrical equipment	4.5	‑1.7	‑1.2	39.9
28	Industry for machinery and equipment n.e.c.	11.0	3.4	6.7	16.1
29	Industry for motor vehicles	6.2	22.3	3.3	11.6
30	Industry for other transport equipment	2.5	‑0.6	0.2	22.6
31-33	Industry for other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery amd equipment	6.4	2.9	3.3	‑5.4

1) Working day and seasonal adjusted figures.
2) Working day adjusted figures.

Definitions and explanations

The Industrial Production Index is based on input data from three different sources. The majority of the industries are calculated with information on deliveries, which corresponds to roughly 95 percent of the total added value. The conversion of delivery information into constant prices is done using the Producer Price Index, (PPI). Calculations for other industries are based on information about quantities produced and also the number of hours worked.

Information about deliveries is collected through a monthly online questionnaire sent out to approximately 2 300 enterprise units. The survey's response rate is 80-85 percent, while the weighted response rate (where the size of deliveries for the responding companies is also considered) amounts to more than 90 percent.

All time series use 2005 as the reference base period. All monthly comparisons are based on working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted index values. Seasonal adjustment means making the corrections for the seasonal variations that reappear from year to year. The purpose is in part to show those changes that are not dependent on seasonal variations and thus can allow for comparisons with other months, and in part to study evident trends. Annual comparisons are only revised for calendar effects.

Revisions

When the Industrial Production Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. The material is normally revised for five months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 2000 onwards.

Seasonal Adjustment

Procedure

When seasonally adjusting the Industrial Production Index, every series is individually seasonally adjusted using the TRAMO-SEATS program. TRAMO-SEATS was introduced in 2004 for the Industrial Production Index and is recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment of official statistics.

An important part of this method is to identify a model for the actual time series for each industry. These models are used for forecasts of the actual Industrial Production Index for two years forward and the forecasts are used in the seasonal adjustments. Because the forecasts are completely dependent on the choice of the model, this may cause revisions of seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent. To reduce the effects of revisions in seasonally adjusted data, Statistics Sweden has chosen to follow Eurostat's recommendation to use fixed models during the period of one year. According to Eurostat recommendations, seasonal adjustments should be reviewed at least once every year, including the selection of models. This recommendation has been applied to the Industrial Production Index since 2004.

Review of the model

The latest model review was conducted in connection with the publishing in February 2011 concerning data for December 2010. The next review of the model is planned to take place in connection with the publishing concerning December 2011.