Political Party Preference Survey November 2011

The Political Party Preference Survey shows that if a Riksdag election had been held in November, the governing parties (i.e. C+FP+M+KD) would have received 48.4 percent of the votes. The red/green parties (i.e. S+V+MP) would have received 44.6 percent. Sweden Democrats would have received 5.7 percent and other parties 1.4 percent of the votes.

Compared to May 2011, a statistically significant increase was noted for the governing parties as a block between 2.2 and 3.8 percentage points. In November the Centre Party would have received 5.5 percent (±0.4), the Liberal Party 5.6 percent (±0.4), the Moderate Party 33.4 percent (±0.8) and the Christian Democrats 3.8 percent (±0.4).

A statistically significant decrease was noted for the red/green parties as a block compared to May 2011 between 2.0 and 3.6 percentage points. In November the Social Democrats would have received 27.7 percent (±0.8), the Left Party 5.2 percent (±0.3), and the Green Party 11.7 percent (±0.6).

If there were to be an election in November, the Sweden Democrats would have received 5.7 (±0.4) percent of the votes, which is not a statistically significant change compared to May. In the event of an election in November, other parties would have received 1.4 percent (±0.2) of the votes. The Pirate Party and the Feminist Initiative Party were the largest of the other parties.

The table below presents the party estimations and estimations of changes since the Riksdag election in 2010 and the Political Party Preference Survey in May 2011. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimates of election results "if an election had been held today". November 2011

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few coming days?

Party	Estimate November 2011		Change since		Estimated percent								Election 2010
	Percent	Margin of error^[1]	Election 2010	May 2011	May 2011	Nov 2010	May 2010	Nov 2009	May 2009	Nov 2008	May 2008	Nov 2007
C	5.5	±0.4	-1.1*	1.0*	4.5	5.8	4.6	5.0	5.5	5.9	6.2	6.2	6.6
FP	5.6	±0.4	-1.5*	-0.4*	6.0	6.8	5.8	6.5	5.5	6.0	6.8	6.5	7.1
M	33.4	±0.8	3.3*	2.3*	31.1	32.4	29.2	26.2	29.9	24.8	22.4	22.6	30.1
KD	3.8	±0.4	-1.8*	0.0	3.8	4.3	4.5	4.8	4.3	4.5	4.6	4.6	5.6
S	27.7	±0.8	-3.0*	-6.3*	34.0	29.0	33.8	36.5	36.6	42.3	44.7	45.9	30.7
V	5.2	±0.3	-0.4*	0.7*	4.5	4.7	5.6	5.1	5.7	5.7	5.1	5.1	5.6
MP	11.7	±0.6	4.4*	2.8*	8.9	8.8	10.7	8.4	6.0	6.1	5.9	5.2	7.3
SD	5.7	±0.4	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.7	3.9	5.1	3.0	3.2	2.8	..	5.7
Other	1.4	±0.2	0.0	-0.1	1.5	1.5	1.8	2.4	3.4	1.5	1.4	3.9	1.4

1)Margin of error applies to estimations of percentages and of changes.
*The change is statistically significant.

The parties in November 2011

Centre Party

If an election were held in November 2011, the Centre Party would receive 5.5 ±0.4 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared to May and a statistically significant decrease compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.

Compared to May, statistically significant net gains are noted for the Centre Party by about 0.5 percent from the Moderate Party, about 0.2 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.2 percent from the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.2 percent is noted from the Christian Democrats. At the same time the Centre Party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.8 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.4 percent to the Green Party compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 5. 6± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November. This is a statistically significant decrease compared to both May and the Riksdag election in 2010.

Compared to May, the Liberal Party had a net gain of about 0.4 percent from the Social Democrats. At the same time the party had statistically significant net losses compared to May of about 0.6 percent to the group "do not know" and about 0.2 percent to the Centre Party.

Compared to the Riksdag election of 2010, statistically significant net losses of about 0.9 percent are noted to the Moderate Party and about 0.1 percent to "other parties".

Moderate Party

If an election were held in November 2011, the Moderate Party would receive 33.4 ± 0.8 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared to May as well as the Riksdag election in 2010.

Statistically significant net gains are noted for the Moderate Party in May of about 1.2 percent from the Social Democrats and about 0.3 percent from the Christian Democrats. At the same time a statistically significant loss of about 0.5 percent to the Centre Party is noted.

In relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, the Moderate Party have statistically significant net gains of about 1.7 percent from the Social Democrats, about 1.2 percent from the Christian Democrats, about 0.9 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.8 percent from the Centre Party. At the same time the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Green Party since the Riksdag election.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 3.8 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2011. Compared to May, no statistically significant change can be noted, but in relation to the Riksdag election in 2010 this is a statistically significant decrease.

The Christian Democrats have a statistically significant net gain compared to May of about 0.2 percent from the Social Democrats. The party also has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Moderate Party compared to May.

Compared to the Riksdag election of 2010 statistically significant net losses are noted for the Christian Democrats of about 1.2 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.2 percent to the Centre Party and about 0.1 percent to "other parties".

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 27.7 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in November 2011. This is a statistically significant decrease compared to both May and the Riksdag election in 2010.

Statistically significant net losses were noted for the Social Democrats compared to May of about 2.8 percent to the group "do not know", about 1.7 percent to the Green Party, about 1.2 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.9 percent to the Left Party, about 0.5 percent to the Sweden Democrats, about 0.4 percent to the Liberal Party, about 0.2 percent to the Centre Party and about 0.2 percent to the Christian Democrats.

In relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, statistically significant net losses were noted of about 2.3 percent to the Green Party, about 1.7 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.5 percent to the Left Party.

Left Party

If an election were held in November 2011, the Left Party would receive 5.2 ± 0.3 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared to May and a statistically significant decrease compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.
In relation to May, the Left Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.9 percent from the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election there was a statistically significant net gain for the Left Party of about 0.5 percent from the Social Democrats.

Green Party

If an election were held in November 2011, the Green Party would receive 11.7 ± 0.6 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared to May as well as the Riksdag election in 2010.

Statistically significant net gains for the Green Party were noted for about 1.7 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.6 percent from the group "do not know" and about 0.2 percent from "other parties" compared to May.

In relation to the Riksdag election of 2010 the Green Party has statistically significant net gains of about 2.3 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.4 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.3 percent from the Moderate Party, about 0.2 percent from the Sweden Democrats and about 0.3 percent from "other parties".

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 5.7 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2011. No statistically significant change has occurred compared to May or with the Riksdag election in 2010.

In relation to May, the Sweden Democrats have statistically significant net gains of about 0.5 percent from the Social Democrats and about 0.1 percent from "other parties".

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010 a statistically significant net loss was noted of about 0.2 percent to the Green Party.

”Other parties"

The group "other parties" would receive 1.4 ± 0.2 percent of the votes in an election in November 2011. No statistically significant change has occurred compared to May or with the Riksdag election in 2010.

Statistically significant net losses for "other parties" were noted compared to May of about 0.2 percent to the Green Party and about 0.1 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

In relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, "other parties" have statistically significant net gains of about 0.1 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.1 percent from the Christian Democrats. At the same time, "other parties" have a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Green Party since the Riksdag election in 2010.

Figure 1 Net flows from the Riksdag election 2010 to November 2011

Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from the Riksdag election in 2010 to November 2011 for the various parties. The figures report significant net loss and net gain percentages of all submitted information on the chosen party in the Riksdag election in 2010 together with information on the parties which one would vote for in November 2011. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in the share of voters for the parties from the election in 2010 because there are also flows between parties and the "do not know" group. (unweighted information in table 21 in the table publication).

Figure 2 Net flows from May 2011 to November 2011

Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows from May 2011 to November 2011 for the various parties. The figures report significant net loss and net gain percentages of all who have submitted party answers or answered "do not know" for the question on which party one would choose in an election upon each survey round. (unweighted information in table 22 in the table publication).

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in November 2011 was conducted by telephone interviews of a national random probability sample consisting of 9 060 persons entitled to vote in the Riksdag election, without an upper age limit. Of these persons, 13.9 percent could not be reached (including unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.7 percent were too ill to be interviewed and 17.2 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 34.8 percent. A total of 5 907 interviews were conducted. In addition, some persons did not want to answer certain questions. The interviews were conducted by telephone during the period 1 - 27 November. The majority of the interviews were conducted during the first half of the measuring period. 77 percent of the interviews had been conducted up to and including 16 November.

The results are presented in intervals or point estimations ± margins of error. The interval that is created of the percent estimation ± margin of error here is a 95 percent confidence interval, which is an interval with a 95 percent probability including the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.