Retail trade increased in December

The retail trade sales volume increased by 1.5 percent in December compared to the same month last year. Retail sales for consumables increased by 2.4 percent while retail sales for durables increased by 1.0 percent. The information is working day adjusted.

The turnover for retail trade measured in current prices increased by 0.7 percent from December of 2010 to December of 2011. Retail trade for consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) showed an increase of 2.5 percent while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) decreased by 0.5 percent.

The retail trade sales volume increased by 0.1 percent from November to December of 2011. During the last three-month period (October to December), the sales volume increased by 0.6 percent compared to the previous three-month period (July to September). Both of these figures are working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Turnover development in retail trade December 2010 – December 2011

Comments from HUI Research:

December sales, the most important period for retailers, hit a new record in 2011. Just as expected, growth was weak but the small increase meant that December sales exceeded SEK 65 billion for the first time. It also meant that Christmas sales in 2011 hit a record for the 16th consecutive year.

December sales followed the same pattern visible during autumn 2011. Households save on durables but increase their consumable purchases. With weaker price increases consumables reported a solid growth in volume during December. The increase in sales during the most important period of trade was welcome, but the increase was slight and did not help an otherwise lost year. Trade as a whole in 2011 stopped at a growth of 0.8 percent, which is the weakest growth since 1996. Sales were also reduced in a number of the durables industries, where bankruptcy rates have increased and will probably remain so during the current year.

The outlook for 2012 does not look bright for retail trade, which is affected by a weaker Swedish economy and by the households' bleak belief in the future. Interest rate cuts, which also have an impact on households, and increases in real wages, due to low inflation, may help the retail trade in 2012, and it is still reasonable to expect a continuation of growth. HUI's forecast for 2012 is a growth of 1.5 percent.

Sales development 2011/2010:

Sweden

	Current prices			Working day adjusted, constant prices		Price change	Working day effect^[3]
	Dec%	95% Conf.Int.^[1]	2011%^[2]	Dec%	2011%^[2]	Dec%	Dec%
Retail sales for consumables	2.5	± 0.9	1.3	2.4	0.1	0.8	-0.6
Retail sales for durables	-0.5	± 1.1	0.3	1.0	2.1	-1.3	-0.2
Total retail trade	0.7	± 0.7	0.8	1.5	1.2	-0.3	-0.4

International comparisons, comparison to same month of last year (working day adjusted, constant prices)

	Jun. %	Jul.%	Aug.%	Sep.%	Oct.%	Nov.%
EU	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	-0.5	0.0	-1.2
Euro zone	-0.5	0.0	0.2	-1.0	-0.7	-2.3
Sweden	3.2	1.1	0.3	-0.9	-0.6	0.6

Time series:

Current prices

	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.^
Turnover 2005=100	157.7	109.7	103.5	118.5	126.7	130.0	132.5	130.3	129.7	124.7	126.9	125.9	158.8
Monthly development %*	2.9	1.7	2.1	-1.7	5.5	1.6	0.3	-1.2	1.7	0.4	-1.3	-0.3	0.7
3-month development %**	3.6	3.6	2.3	0.6	2.0	1.8	2.4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	-0.4	-0.2
12-month development %**	3.7	3.6	3.5	2.7	3.3	3.1	2.7	2.4	2.2	1.8	1.5	1.0	0.8

Working day adjusted, constant prices

	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.^
Turnover 2005=100	152.2	106.6	100.3	112.2	124.3	122.9	130.5	127.4	126.2	119.7	121.3	121.5	154.4
Monthly development %*	2.7	2.5	2.8	0.4	5.4	-1.0	3.2	1.1	0.3	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	1.5
3-month development %**	4.0	3.3	2.7	1.8	2.9	1.6	2.5	1.1	1.5	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	0.6
12-month development %**	3.3	3.2	3.2	2.9	3.5	3.1	3.1	3.0	2.6	2.1	1.7	1.4	1.2

Seasonally adjusted series

	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.^
Turnover 2005=100	121.4	121.9	121.6	120.7	123.0	120.4	123.7	122.5	122.2	121.8	122.3	123.2	123.3
Development %***	-0.9	0.4	-0.3	-0.7	1.9	-2.1	2.8	-1.0	-0.3	-0.4	0.4	0.7	0.1
Development for the latest 3 month %****	0.3	-0.5	-1.0	-0.8	-0.2	-0.2	0.8	0.4	1.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.4	0.6
Development for the latest 6 month %****	2.6	2.3	1.6	0.9	0.0	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	0.3	0.2	0.9	0.5

[1] The true change is, with 95 % probability, covered by the estimated interval
[2] The period of January up to and including the given month compared to the same period of last year.
[3] The working day effect shows the basic conditions for sales during the period of the present year compared to last year. A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison to same month of last year.
** Comparison among the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison to last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3 or 6 month period compared to the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).

Definitions and explanations

Total retail trade refers to NACE 47, excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.

All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Results for December are based on the response rate of 84 percent. The weighted response rate considers the size of the turnover for the responding companies, which amounted to 95 percent. Results for November are based on the response rate of 89 percent unweighted and 96 percent weighted. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.

Revisions

When the Retail Trade Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. For the last month a new calculation has been made but other months may also be revised. The material is normally revised for twelve months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 1991 onwards.