Retail trade increased in January

The retail trade sales volume increased by 1.5 percent in January compared to the same month last year. Retail sales for consumables increased by 1.0 percent while retail sales for durables increased by 1.8 percent. The information is working day adjusted.

The turnover for retail trade measured in current prices increased by 2.0 percent from January of 2011 to January of 2012. Retail trade for consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) showed an increase of 1.8 percent while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) decreased by 2.2 percent.

The retail trade sales volume increased by 0.1 percent from December of 2011 to January of 2012. During the last three-month period (November to January), the sales volume increased by 1.0 percent compared to the previous three-month period (August to October). Both of these figures are working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Turnover development in retail trade January 2011 – January 2012

Changes are shown as percentages compared to the same period of last year.

Comments from the Swedish Retail Institute:

Retail trade started optimistically in 2012. The growth of 2.0 percent is the largest since spring 2011. Retail trade for durables showed a positive growth in January after several months with negative figures. Meanwhile, retail trade for consumables continues to show a positive growth, both in value and volume.

The explanations for the slightly brighter growth are several. Consumer confidence increased slightly, or at least stopped decreasing. There is probably a latent need for shopping after six months of restraint. The weather has probably also played a part, which is visible regarding sportswear and footwear, both increasing significantly. The supply of items on sale has been good for the consumers, which may also be of significance. However, it is too early to talk about a change in growth for retail trade considering that the growth in 2011 was the weakest since 1996. The bankruptcy rate is high after a weak year and we still have not seen the significance of what the debt crisis in Europe will do with the layoffs and unemployment rates, which may halt the growth of retail trade. It is reasonable to believe in a slight growth in 2012 and the outcome in January suggests that 2012 will be better than 2011.

Sales development 2011/2010:

Sweden

	Current prices			Working day adjusted, constant prices		Price change	Working day effect^[3]
	Jan%	95% Conf.Int. ^[1]	2012% ^[2]	Jan%	2012% ^[2]	Jan%	Jan%
Retail sales for consumables	1.8	±1.0	1.8	1.0	1.0	1.1	-0.3
Retail sales for durables	2.2	±1.1	2.2	1.8	1.8	-2.1	2.5
Total retail trade	2.0	±0.7	2.0	1.5	1.5	-0.7	1.2

International comparisons, comparison to same month of last year (working day adjusted, constant prices)

	Jul.%	Aug.%	Sep.%	Oct.%	Nov.%	Dec.%
EU	-0.2	-0.2	-0.6	-0.2	-0.6	0.3
Euro zone	0.1	0.2	-1.0	-0.7	-1.2	-1.3
Sweden	1.1	0.3	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	1.4

Time series:

Current prices

	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.^
Turnover 2005=100	109.7	103.5	118.5	126.7	130.0	132.5	130.3	129.7	124.7	126.9	125.9	158.8	111.9
Monthly development %*	1.7	2.1	-1.7	5.5	1.6	0.3	-1.2	1.7	0.4	-1.3	-0.3	0.7	2.0
3-month development %**	3.6	2.3	0.6	2.0	1.8	2.4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	-0.4	-0.2	0.7
12-month development %**	3.6	3.5	2.7	3.3	3.1	2.7	2.4	2.2	1.8	1.5	1.0	0.8	0.8

Working day adjusted, constant prices

	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.^
Turnover 2005=100	106.6	100.3	112.2	124.3	122.9	130.5	127.4	126.2	119.7	121.3	121.5	154.4	108.2
Monthly development %*	2.5	2.8	0.4	5.4	-1	3.2	1.1	0.3	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	1.4	1.5
3-month development %**	3.3	2.7	1.8	2.9	1.6	2.5	1.1	1.5	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	0.6	1.2
12-month development %**	3.2	3.2	2.9	3.5	3.1	3.1	3	2.6	2.1	1.7	1.4	1.2	1.1

Seasonally adjusted series

	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.^
Turnover 2005=100	121.7	121.6	120.7	123.0	120.5	123.8	122.5	122.2	121.8	122.3	123.2	123.3	123.5
Development %***	0.2	-0.1	-0.7	1.9	-2.1	2.7	-1.0	-0.3	-0.4	0.4	0.8	0.1	0.1
Development for the latest 3 month %****	-0.6	-1.0	-0.9	-0.1	-0.2	0.9	0.4	1.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	0.6	1.0
Development for the latest 6 month %****	2.2	1.6	0.9	0.0	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	0.3	0.3	0.9	0.6	0.6

[1] The true change is, with 95 % probability, covered by the estimated interval
[2] The period of January up to and including the given month compared to the same period of last year.
[3] The working day effect shows the basic conditions for sales during the period of the present year compared to last year. A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison to same month of last year.
** Comparison among the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison to last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3 or 6 month period compared to the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).

Definitions and explanations

Total retail trade refers to NACE 47, excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.

All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Results for January are based on the response rate of 82 percent. The weighted response rate considers the size of the turnover for the responding companies, which amounted to 94 percent. Results for December are based on the response rate of 89 percent unweighted and 96 percent weighted. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.

Revisions

When the Retail Trade Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. For the last month a new calculation has been made but other months may also be revised. The material is normally revised for twelve months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 1991 onwards.