Increased industrial production

Industrial production increased by 3.6 percent in seasonally adjusted figures in January compared to December 2011. Comparing January with the same month in 2011, industrial production increased by 2.1 percent in working day adjusted figures. The figures for all months 2011 have been corrected due to an error in the calculations for industry NACE27 (electrical equipment industry).

The development in production varied among the industry sub-sectors in January compared to December 2011, but most sub-sectors showed a positive development. The pharmaceutical industry and the textile industry increased the most.

Industrial production was unchanged when comparing the most recent three month period, November 2011 – January 2012, with the previous three month period, August - October 2011.

Industrial production increased by 2.1 percent in January 2012 compared with the same month in 2011. On a yearly basis, development also varied among the industry sub-sectors. The largest positive developments were in the industry for non-metallic mineral products and the textile industry.

The figures for January are preliminary. Since the previous publication the change in industrial production in December 2011 compared to November 2011 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points to a decrease of 0.2 percent. The change in the production in December 2011 compared to the same month in 2010 has been revised downwards by 2.4 percentage points to a decrease of 0.4 percent.

In connection with this publishing of Industrial production index for January 2012, the information from January 2011 onwards has been corrected. An error was made in the calculations for industry NACE27 with the sample change in 2011 in connection with the publishing regarding March 2011. The correction affects the comparisons on an annual basis, i.e. for one month in 2011 compared to the corresponding month in 2010. Concerning the monthly changes, primarily January and February 2011 compared to the previous months have been affected. This applies to the reporting groups that the sub-sector in question belongs to.

In connection with the publishing of February 2012, a review of the calculations for all of 2011 will be conducted. This may lead to further revisions. All series from the latest publishing that concern December 2011 are available on the web page.

Percent changes in industrial production volume

NACE 2007	INDUSTRY TITLE	Share of value added 2010	Jan 2012/ Dec 2011 ^[1]	Nov 2011‑ Jan 2012/ Aug-Oct 2011^[1]	Jan 2012/ Jan 2011 ^[2]
B+C	Mines and quarries and manufacturing industry	100	3.6	0.0	2.1
-	Intermediate goods industry	43.8	0.5	0.0	1.2
-	Energy excl. section D	1.1	‑1.1	10.6	‑0.4
-	Capital goods industry	32.2	2.1	‑1.1	0.3
-	Non-durable consumer goods industry	20.4	11.9	‑1.2	5.3
-	Durable consumer goods industry	2.5	5.8	‑2.8	‑4.1
B	Mines and quarries	6.1	‑2.5	1.7	2.0
C	Manufacturing industry	93.9	4.0	‑0.3	2.2
10-12	Food product, beverage and tobacco industry	7.8	0.4	‑2.9	‑5.0
13-15	Industry for textile and leather products	0.8	10.6	0.4	6.1
16	Industry for wood and wood products	4.0	‑1.4	1.1	1.0
17	Industry for pulp, paper and paper products	6.8	2.5	‑2.8	‑4.7
18	Industry for printing and reproduction of recorded media	2.2	‑4.2	0.4	‑1.1
19	Industry for coke and refined petroleum products	1.1	‑1.2	9.7	‑0.5
20	Industry for chemicals	4.2	3.2	0.1	0.4
21	Industry for basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	9.0	28.8	‑1.2	14.5
22	Industry for rubber and plastic products	3.0	2.9	‑1.2	6.4
23	Industry for other non-metallic mineral products	2.5	‑1.5	‑3.8	15.2
24	Industry for basic metals	5.8	5.1	‑1.9	‑0.9
25	Industry for manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	9.1	‑2.5	2.1	1.7
26	Industry for manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	6.9	9.1	‑1.5	2.5
27	Industry for manufacture of electrical equipment	4.5	‑10.9	7.1	‑2.8
28	Industry for machinery and equipment n.e.c.	11.0	8.7	0.5	12.0
29	Industry for motor vehicles	6.2	4.3	‑4.5	‑8.7
30	Industry for other transport equipment	2.5	‑1.2	5.7	‑5.7
31-33	Industry for other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery amd equipment	6.4	2.0	‑1.5	‑7.1

1) Working day and seasonal adjusted figures.
2) Working day adjusted figures.

Definitions and explanations

The Industrial Production Index is based on input data from three different sources. The majority of the industries are calculated with information on deliveries, which corresponds to roughly 95 percent of the total added value. The conversion of delivery information into constant prices is done using the Producer Price Index, (PPI). Calculations for other industries are based on information about quantities produced and the number of hours worked.

Information about deliveries is collected via a monthly online questionnaire sent out to approximately 2 300 enterprise units. The survey's response rate is 80-85 percent, while the weighted response rate (where the size of deliveries for the responding companies is also considered) amounts to more than 90 percent.

All time series use 2005 as the reference base period. All monthly comparisons are based on working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted index values. Seasonal adjustment means making the corrections for the seasonal variations that reappear from year to year. The purpose is in part to show those changes that are not dependent on seasonal variations and thus can allow for comparisons with other months, and in part to study evident trends. Annual comparisons are only revised for calendar effects.

Revisions

When the Industrial Production Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. The material is normally revised for five months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 2000 onwards.

Seasonal Adjustment

Procedure
When seasonally adjusting the Industrial Production Index, every series is seasonally adjusted individually using the TRAMO-SEATS program. TRAMO-SEATS was introduced in 2004 for the Industrial Production Index and is recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment of official statistics.

An important part of this method is to identify a model for the actual time series for each industry. These models are used for forecasts of the actual Industrial Production Index for two years forward and the forecasts are used in the seasonal adjustments. Because the forecasts are completely dependent on the choice of the model, this may cause revisions of seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent. To reduce the effects of revisions in seasonally adjusted data, Statistics Sweden has chosen to follow Eurostat's recommendation to use fixed models during the period of one year. According to Eurostat recommendations, seasonal adjustments should be reviewed at least once every year, including the selection of models. This recommendation has been applied to the Industrial Production Index since 2004.

Review of the model
The previous review of the model was done in the beginning of February 2011 for the data for December 2010. The new review was conducted in connection with the publishing in February 2012 concerning data for December 2011.

Models for a number of series have been changed in connection with the annual review, mostly because the models are no longer optimally adapted for the input data. Due to the change in the model, revisions occur in the seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent, even back in time. Series that have undergone more extensive model changes are NACE 10, NACE 11, NACE 13-15, NACE 16, NACE 16.1, NACE 16.2, NACE 17, NACE 27, NACE 31-33 and NACE 33.

The next review of the model is planned to take place in connection with the publishing concerning December 2012.