Press release from Statistics Sweden

2012-03-09 9:30 AM Nr 2012:

New orders and deliveries in industry, January 2012:

New orders decreased

New orders for Swedish industry decreased by 0.1 percent in seasonally adjusted figures in January 2012 compared to December 2011. When comparing January 2012 and the same month of the previous year, new orders decreased by 1.2 percent in working day adjusted figures. The figures for all months 2011 have been corrected due to an error in the calculations for industry NACE27 (electrical equipment industry).

The industry sub-sectors showed a mixed development in January compared to December. The most positive development was seen in the pharmaceutical industry and the industry for other transport equipment. The electrical equipment industry decreased the most. During the last three-month-period (November-January) new orders in total decreased by 1.4 percent compared to the previous three-month-period.

New orders from the domestic market increased by 3.1 percent in January compared to December. During the last three-month-period new orders decreased by 0.7 percent compared to the previous three-month-period.

New orders from the export market decreased by 2.3 percent in January compared to December. During the last three-month-period new orders decreased by 2.0 percent compared to the previous three-month-period.

On an annual basis new orders in total continued to decrease. In January new orders decreased by 1.2 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The corresponding comparison in the domestic market results in an increase of 1.7 percent and the export market a decrease of 2.9 percent. 

The figures for January are preliminary. Since the previous publication the change in new orders in December compared to November has been revised downwards by 1.1 percentage points to an increase of 7.5 percent. The change in new orders between December 2011 and the same month of the previous year has been revised downwards by 1.4 percentage points to a decrease of 2.0 percent.

In connection with this publishing of New orders and deliveries in industry for January 2012, the information from January 2011 onwards has been corrected. An error was made in the calculations for industry NACE27 with the sample change in 2011 in connection with the publishing regarding March 2011. The correction affects the comparisons on an annual basis, i.e. for one month in 2011 compared to the corresponding month in 2010. Concerning the monthly changes, primarily January and February 2011 compared to the previous months have been affected. This applies to the reporting groups that the sub-sector in question belongs to.

In connection with the publishing of February 2012, a review of the calculations for all of 2011 will be conducted. This may lead to further revisions. All series from the latest publishing that concern December 2011 are available on the web page.

Percent changes in new orders

NACE 2007

INDUSTRY TITLE

Share of
value
added 2010

Jan 2012/
Dec 2011[1]

Nov 2011-Jan 2012/
Aug-Oct
2011[1]

Jan 2012/
Jan 2011[2]

     

Tot

Dom

Exp

Tot

Dom

Exp

Tot

Dom

Exp

B+C
Mines and quarries and manufacturing industry
 100.0 ‑0.1 3.1 ‑2.3 ‑1.4 ‑0.7 ‑2.0 ‑1.2 1.7 ‑2.9
-
Intermediate goods industry
 43.8 ‑5.8 2.0 ‑11.1 0.6 ‑1.3 2.1 ‑0.1 2.1 ‑1.8
-
Energy excl. NACE rev 2. Section D
 1.1 2.8 0.7 5.9 29.6 10.0 74.9 12.6 1.2 34.9
-
Capital goods industry
 32.2 1.0 5.9 ‑0.9 ‑5.0 ‑0.9 ‑6.6 ‑3.6 6.6 ‑7.3
-
Non-durable consumer goods industry
 20.4 7.9 1.0 19.9 ‑1.6 ‑1.3 ‑2.1 0.6 ‑3.8 7.0
-
Durable consumer goods industry
 2.5 5.4 11.4 ‑1.2 ‑2.5 ‑4.1 ‑0.7 ‑4.8 ‑0.2 ‑9.5
B
Mines and quarries
 6.1 ‑5.9 ‑14.6 3.5 3.8 ‑0.6 8.6 3.5 ‑9.3 16.0
C
Manufacturing industry
 93.9 0.0 3.4 ‑2.3 ‑1.5 ‑0.7 ‑2.1 ‑1.3 2.0 ‑3.1
10-12
Food product, beverage and tobacco industry
 7.8 ‑0.1 ‑0.4 2.0 ‑2.1 ‑1.7 ‑4.4 ‑5.3 ‑4.9 ‑7.8
13-15
Industry for textile and leather products
 0.8 2.5 6.2 ‑1.4 ‑9.6 ‑7.1 ‑12.2 ‑15.4 2.7 ‑28.8
16
Industry for wood and wood products
 4.0 ‑1.9 ‑0.7 ‑3.4 6.2 1.0 13.7 9.0 ‑2.5 29.3
17
Industry for pulp, paper and paper products
 6.8 5.1 9.2 4.1 ‑3.5 ‑18.3 0.8 ‑6.1 ‑11.2 ‑4.9
18
Industry for printing and reproduction of recorded media
 2.2 ‑2.1 ‑1.2 ‑11.8 0.8 0.9 ‑0.9 ‑1.5 ‑0.1 ‑14.0
19
Industry for coke and refined petroleum products
 1.1 2.8 0.7 5.9 29.6 10.0 74.9 12.6 1.2 34.9
20
Industry for chemicals
 4.2 5.2 2.7 6.7 ‑1.9 ‑1.8 ‑2.0 2.7 8.2 ‑0.1
21
Industry for basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations
 9.0 28.9 42.8 28.1 ‑1.1 4.1 ‑1.4 12.6 ‑10.9 14.6
22
Industry for rubber and plastic products
 3.0 6.3 7.8 4.5 ‑2.2 ‑5.1 1.4 7.0 7.2 6.9
23
Industry for other non-metallic mineral products
 2.5 0.5 1.1 ‑1.6 ‑1.1 0.4 ‑6.1 15.0 23.4 ‑4.1
24
Industry for basic metals
 5.8 1.9 6.9 ‑0.3 1.8 ‑1.3 3.2 ‑9.0 ‑8.7 ‑9.1
25
Industry for manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
 9.1 ‑1.1 8.3 ‑16.9 ‑0.3 ‑0.4 ‑0.2 2.6 3.5 1.1
26
Industry for manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
 6.9 ‑3.1 5.0 ‑4.1 ‑1.2 ‑5.0 ‑0.7 ‑0.3 13.5 ‑2.1
27
Industry for manufacture of electrical equipment
 4.5 ‑53.3 ‑1.2 ‑72.1 4.1 15.6 ‑1.9 ‑6.8 8.8 ‑20.3
28
Industry for machinery and equipment n.e.c.
 11.0 3.3 24.4 ‑3.5 ‑7.9 5.6 ‑12.1 ‑8.1 41.9 ‑19.8
29
Industry for motor vehicles
 6.2 2.9 ‑6.1 8.7 ‑5.5 ‑1.8 ‑7.6 ‑3.4 ‑10.7 0.5
30
Industry for other transport equipment
 2.5 26.2 24.3 30.2 ‑6.2 ‑6.3 ‑5.7 36.6 72.3 4.2
31-33
Industry for other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery and equipment
 6.4 3.8 4.2 3.0 ‑2.1 ‑0.5 ‑4.3 ‑5.3 ‑3.2 ‑7.8

1) Working day and seasonally adjusted figures
2) Working day adjusted figures

 

Definitions and explanations

Percentage change
All comparisons between successive periods are based on working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted index numbers in constant prices. Comparisons between the current period and the corresponding period of the previous year are based on working day adjusted index numbers in constant prices.

Revisions
When the new orders index and the delivery index for a new month are published, the index for previous months is also revised. The material is normally revised for five months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information having been received. The seasonally adjusted series and the trend series are always revised from January 2000 and onwards.

Seasonal adjustment
When seasonally adjusting the new orders and deliveries in industry, every series is individually seasonally adjusted using the Tramo Seats program. Tramo-Seats was introduced for deliveries and orders in the publication on data for January 2011. Tramo-Seats is recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment of official statistics.

An important part of this method is to identify a model for the actual time series for each industry. These models are used for forecasts of the actual Industrial new orders and deliveries for two years forward and the forecasts are used in the seasonal adjustments. Because the forecasts are completely dependent on the choice of the model, this may cause revisions of seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent. To reduce the effects of revisions in seasonally adjusted data, Statistics Sweden has chosen to follow Eurostat's recommendation to use fixed models during the period of one year. According to Eurostat recommendations, seasonal adjustments should be reviewed at least once every year, including the selection of models.  This recommendation has been applied by Statistics Sweden to for example the National Accounts and Industrial production index.

Model review
The new model review was conducted in connection with the publishing in March 2012 concerning data for January 2012.

Models for a number of series have been changed in connection with the annual review, mostly because the models are no longer optimally adapted for the input data. Due to the change in the model, revisions occur in the seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent, even back in time.

The next review of the model is planned to take place in connection with the publishing concerning January 2013.

International comparisons
For international comparisons please refer to Eurostat.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/short_term_business_statistics/introduction

Next publishing will be

The next press release in this series is scheduled for publishing on 2012-04-10 at 09:30.

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Responsible agency and producer

Statistics Sweden, Foreign Trade and Industrial Indicators
Box 24300
SE-104 51 Stockholm, Sweden
Fax +46 8 506 945 71


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