New orders decreased

New orders for Swedish industry decreased by 5.5 percent in seasonally adjusted figures in February compared to January. When comparing February of this year and the same month of the previous year, new orders decreased by 8.3 percent in working day adjusted figures.

According to underlying data the development this month is due to uncertain estimates. New orders are partly estimated by using information on deliveries, for which a large share of the decrease appears to be temporary. In most industry sub-sectors new orders decreased in February compared to January. During the last three-month period (December 2011-February 2012) new orders in total increased by 0.9 percent compared to the previous three-month-period.

New orders from the domestic market decreased by 1.1 percent in February compared to January. During the last three-month period new orders increased by 1.0 percent compared to the previous three-month period.

New orders from the export market decreased by 8.5 percent in February compared to January. During the last three-month period new orders increased by 1.0 percent compared to the previous three-month period.

On an annual basis new orders in total continued to decrease. In February new orders decreased by 8.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The corresponding comparison in the domestic market results in a decrease of 5.9 percent while in the export market we see a decrease of 9.8 percent.

The figures for February are preliminary. In connection with this publication of new orders and deliveries in industry, the figures have been revised from January 2011 and onwards for all months. Since the previous publication the change in new orders in January 2012 compared to December 2011 has been revised downwards by 2.9 percentage points to a decrease of 3.0 percent. The change in new orders between January of this year and the same month of the previous year has been revised downwards by 0.8 percentage points to a decrease of 2.0 percent.

Percent changes in new orders

INDUSTRY TITLE			Feb/Jan 2012 ^[1]			Dec 2011- Feb 2012/ Sep-Nov 2011 ^[1]			Feb 2012/ Feb 2011 ^[2]
		Tot	Dom	Exp	Tot	Dom	Exp	Tot	Dom	Exp
Mines and quarries and manufacturing industry	B+C	‑5.5	‑1.1	‑8.5	0.9	1.0	1.0	‑8.3	‑5.9	‑9.8
Intermediate goods industry	-	‑0.6	‑1.5	0.3	3.1	1.1	4.7	‑2.6	‑5.4	‑0.5
Energy excl. NACE rev 2. Section D	-	2.3	7.5	‑4.9	37.2	18.5	78.1	14.9	14.7	15.5
Capital goods industry	-	‑4.1	‑2.2	‑4.9	0.3	‑0.3	0.5	‑9.8	‑12.6	‑8.6
Non-durable consumer goods industry	-	‑19.8	‑0.7	‑47.9	‑7.2	‑1.0	‑17.0	‑19.5	‑1.9	‑45.9
Durable consumer goods industry	-	‑3.5	‑2.4	‑5.0	‑0.7	0.4	‑1.7	‑10.9	‑8.6	‑13.7
Mines and quarries	B	‑6.0	4.9	‑15.9	1.5	‑1.2	4.6	26.1	8.2	51.2
Manufacturing industry	C	‑5.4	‑1.2	‑8.3	1.0	0.9	0.9	‑8.6	‑6.1	‑10.3
Food product, beverage and tobacco industry	10-12	1.3	0.1	8.1	‑1.0	‑1.1	‑0.1	‑1.6	‑1.5	‑1.7
Industry for textile and leather products	13-15	‑5.8	‑2.1	‑10.3	‑7.8	‑4.2	‑11.7	‑12.2	1.2	‑24.2
Industry for wood and wood products	16	0.9	‑1.5	3.9	4.1	4.2	3.8	5.7	‑6.2	26.3
Industry for pulp, paper and paper products	17	‑0.2	3.2	‑1.0	‑2.1	‑11.4	0.4	‑2.5	‑13.3	0.8
Industry for printing and reproduction of recorded media	18	‑2.5	‑2.5	‑1.4	‑0.6	‑0.6	‑1.0	‑3.2	‑4.4	12.1
Industry for coke and refined petroleum products	19	2.3	7.5	‑4.9	37.2	18.5	78.1	14.9	14.7	15.5
Industry for chemicals	20	..	..	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
Industry for basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	21	..	..	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
Industry for rubber and plastic products	22	‑1.8	‑3.1	‑0.3	‑1.1	‑3.7	2.0	‑5.1	‑9.1	‑0.4
Industry for other non-metallic mineral products	23	‑5.8	‑6.4	‑3.5	‑2.4	‑0.7	‑8.1	‑3.0	0.8	‑12.5
Industry for basic metals	24	‑1.5	‑7.2	1.2	0.4	‑2.7	1.8	‑3.9	‑17.2	3.0
Industry for manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	25	0.4	‑2.9	8.3	0.4	1.4	‑1.8	‑1.8	1.1	‑7.7
Industry for manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	26	‑1.3	22.1	‑4.0	13.5	‑12.5	18.1	4.0	1.8	4.4
Industry for manufacture of electrical equipment	27	8.1	‑2.5	20.1	47.8	29.2	63.8	‑22.7	0.1	‑35.5
Industry for machinery and equipment n.e.c.	28	‑9.5	‑5.1	‑11.1	‑10.8	2.0	‑14.7	‑15.4	‑3.2	‑18.9
Industry for motor vehicles	29	‑5.6	‑5.7	‑5.5	‑2.2	1.2	‑4.1	‑17.2	‑23.4	‑13.8
Industry for other transport equipment	30	‑14.4	‑18.6	‑6.8	11.6	22.7	‑2.9	‑34.2	‑44.1	6.5
Industry for other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery and equipment	31-33	5.0	1.9	9.5	0.0	‑0.5	0.9	‑3.8	0.8	‑8.8

.. = classified information.

1) Working day and seasonally adjusted figures
2) Working day adjusted figures

Definitions and explanations

Percentage change
All comparisons between successive periods are based on working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted index numbers in constant prices. Comparisons between the current period and the corresponding period of the previous year are based on working day adjusted index numbers in constant prices.

Revisions
When the new orders index and the delivery index for a new month are published, the index for previous months is also revised. The material is normally revised for five months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information having been received. The seasonally adjusted series and the trend series are always revised from January 2000 and onwards.

Seasonal adjustment
Procedure
When seasonally adjusting the new orders and deliveries in industry, every series is individually seasonally adjusted using the Tramo Seats program. Tramo-Seats was introduced for deliveries and orders in the publication on data for January 2011. Tramo-Seats is recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment of official statistics.

An important part of this method is to identify a model for the actual time series for each industry. These models are used for forecasts of the actual Industrial new orders and deliveries for two years forward and the forecasts are used in the seasonal adjustments. Because the forecasts are completely dependent on the choice of the model, this may cause revisions of seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent. To reduce the effects of revisions in seasonally adjusted data, Statistics Sweden has chosen to follow Eurostat's recommendation to use fixed models during the period of one year. According to Eurostat recommendations, seasonal adjustments should be reviewed at least once every year, including the selection of models. This recommendation has been applied by Statistics Sweden to for example the National Accounts and Industrial production index.

Model review
The new model review was conducted in connection to this publication in April 2012 concerning data for February 2011 due to the correction of the original series published in March 2012.

Models for a number of series have been changed in connection with the review, mostly because the models are no longer optimally adapted for the input data. Due to the change in the model, revisions occur in the seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent, even back in time. There have been some major model changes for several industries.

The next review of the model is planned to take place in connection with the publishing concerning January 2013.

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The next press release in this series is scheduled for publishing on 2012-05-10 at 09:30.

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