Retail trade increased in March

The retail trade sales volume increased by 4.5 percent in March compared to the same month last year. Retail sales for consumables increased by 2.0 percent while retail sales for durables increased by 6.5 percent. The information is working day adjusted.

The turnover for retail trade measured in current prices increased by 5.2 percent from March 2011 to March 2012. Retail trade for consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) showed an increase of 5.8 percent while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 4.7 percent.

The retail trade sales volume increased by 0.2 percent from February 2012 to March 2012. During the last three-month period (January to March), the sales volume increased by 1.7 percent compared to the previous three-month period (October to December). Both of these figures are working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Turnover development in retail trade March 2011 – March 2012

Changes are shown as percentages compared to the same period of last year.

Comments from HUI Research:

The strong sales increase in March have contributed to the fact that the first quarter has exceeded all expectations. The increase in sales for the first quarter was 4.5 percent. The explanation lies within the increasing optimistic consumer confidence due to less worry about the financial crisis, combined with low interest rates and a stable housing market. Potential layoffs due to weak demand in Europe remain a concern but the worst wave of redundancy notices is still absent. Consumer confidence is strongly reflected in retail trade and after a difficult 2011, 2012 is off to a good start.

Shoes and sporting goods continue to do well with high growth rates even this month, with 17.9 and 15.3 percent. This is largely because the spring season came earlier in 2012 than in 2011 – in March 2011 there was still snow on the ground. Supermarkets also experienced strong growth during the first quarter and, thanks to small price increases, had a strong growth even in volume.

HUI believes that spring as well as autumn will be good for retailers and along with this year’s start, the growth in 2012 will be significantly better than 2011.

Sales development 2012/2011:

Sweden

	Current prices			Working day adjusted, constant prices		Price change	Working day effect^[3]
	Mar%	95% Conf.Int. ^[1]	2012% ^[2]	Mar%	2012% ^[2]	Mar%	Mar%
Retail sales for consumables	5.8	±1.1	4.7	2.0	1.8	1.8	1.8
Retail sales for durables	4.7	±1.1	4.3	6.5	4.3	-1.8	0.1
Total retail trade	5.2	±0.8	4.5	4.5	3.2	-0.2	0.9

International comparisons, comparison to same month of last year (working day adjusted, constant prices)

	Sep.%	Oct.%	Nov.%	Dec.%	Jan.%	Feb.%
EU	-0.7	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	-0.1	-1.0
Euro zone	-1.1	-0.7	-1.4	-1.7	-1.1	-2.1
Sweden	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	1.4	1.7	3.5

Time series:

Current prices

	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.^
Turnover 2005=100	118.5	126.7	130.0	132.5	130.3	129.7	124.7	126.9	125.9	158.8	112.2	109.8	124.7
Monthly development %*	-1.7	5.5	1.6	0.3	-1.2	1.7	0.4	-1.3	-0.3	0.7	2.2	6.1	5.2
3-month development %**	0.6	2.0	1.8	2.4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	-0.4	-0.2	0.8	2.7	4.5
12-month development %**	2.7	3.3	3.1	2.7	2.4	2.2	1.8	1.5	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.6

Working day adjusted, constant prices

	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.^
Turnover 2005=100	112.2	124.3	122.9	130.5	127.4	126.2	119.7	121.3	121.5	154.4	108.4	103.8	117.2
Monthly development %*	0.4	5.4	-1.0	3.2	1.1	0.3	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	1.4	1.7	3.5	4.5
3-month development %**	1.8	2.9	1.6	2.5	1.1	1.5	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	0.6	1.2	2.1	3.2
12-month development %**	2.9	3.5	3.1	3.1	3.0	2.6	2.1	1.7	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.5

Seasonally adjusted series

	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.^
Turnover 2005=100	120.3	123.3	120.4	123.7	122.5	122.2	121.8	122.4	123.3	123.6	124.0	125.5	125.8
Development %***	-0.8	2.5	-2.4	2.8	-1.0	-0.2	-0.3	0.5	0.8	0.2	0.3	1.3	0.2
Development for the latest 3 month %****	-1.2	-0.4	-0.2	1.1	0.5	1.2	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2	0.8	1.2	1.5	1.7
Development for the latest 6 month %****	0.9	0.0	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.4	0.3	1.0	0.7	0.8	1.1	1.5

[1] The true change is, with 95 % probability, covered by the estimated interval
[2] The period of January up to and including the given month compared to the same period of last year.
[3] The working day effect shows the basic conditions for sales during the period of the present year compared to last year. A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison to same month of last year.
** Comparison among the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison to last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3 or 6 month period compared to the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).

Definitions and explanations

Total retail trade refers to NACE 47, excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.

All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Results for March are based on the response rate of 83 percent. The weighted response rate considers the size of the turnover for the responding companies, which amounted to 94 percent. Results for February are based on the response rate of 89 percent unweighted and 97 percent weighted. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.

Revisions

When the Retail Trade Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. For the last month a new calculation has been made but other months may also be revised. The material is normally revised for twelve months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 1991 onwards.