Political Party Preference Survey May 2012

The Political Party Preference Survey shows that if a Riksdag election had been held in May, the governing parties (i.e. C+FP+M+KD) would have received 42.5 percent of the votes. The red/green parties (i.e. S+V+MP) would have received 51.2 percent. Sweden Democrats would have received 5.4 percent and other parties 0.8 percent of the votes.

Compared to November 2011, a statistically significant decrease was noted for the governing parties as a block between 5.1 and 6.7 percentage points. In May the Centre Party would have received 4.7 (±0.4) the Liberal Party 5.5 (±0.4) the Moderate Party 28.6 (±0.7) and the Christian Democrats 3.7 (±0.3) percent.

A statistically significant increase was noted for the red/green parties as a block compared to November 2011 between 5.8 and 7.4 percentage points. In May the Social Democrats would have received 37.3 (±0.8), the Left Party 5.9 (±0.4) and the Green Party 8.1 percent (±0.5).

If there were to be an election in May, the Sweden Democrats would have received 5.4 (±0.5) percent of the votes, which is not a statistically significant change compared to November. In the event of an election in May, other parties would have received 0.8 percent (±0.2) of the votes. Among the other parties, the Pirate Party is the largest.

The table below presents the party estimations and estimations of changes since the Riksdag election in 2010 and the Political Party Preference Survey in November 2011. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimates of election results "if an election had been held today". May 2012

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few coming days?

Party	Estimate May 2012		Change since		Estimated percent								Election 2010
	Percent	Margin of error ^[1]	Election 2010	Nov 2011	Nov 2011	May 2011	Nov 2010	May 2010	Nov 2009	May 2009	Nov 2008	May 2008
C	4.7	± 0.4	-1.9*	-0.8*	5.5	4.5	5.8	4.6	5.0	5.5	5.9	6.2	6.6
FP	5.5	± 0.4	-1.6*	-0.1	5.6	6.0	6.8	5.8	6.5	5.5	6.0	6.8	7.1
M	28.6	± 0.7	-1.5*	-4.8*	33.4	31.1	32.4	29.2	26.2	29.9	24.8	22.4	30.1
KD	3.7	± 0.3	-1.9*	-0.1	3.8	3.8	4.3	4.5	4.8	4.3	4.5	4.6	5.6
S	37.3	± 0.8	6.6*	9.6*	27.7	34.0	29.0	33.8	36.5	36.6	42.3	44.7	30.7
V	5.9	± 0.4	0.3	0.7*	5.2	4.5	4.7	5.6	5.1	5.7	5.7	5.1	5.6
MP	8.1	± 0.5	0.8*	-3.6*	11.7	8.9	8.8	10.7	8.4	6.0	6.1	5.9	7.3
SD	5.4	± 0.5	-0.3	-0.3	5.7	5.7	6.7	3.9	5.1	3.0	3.2	2.8	5.7
Other	0.8	± 0.2	-0.6*	-0.6*	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.8	2.4	3.4	1.5	1.4	1.4

1)Margin of error applies to estimations of percentages and of changes.
*The change is statistically significant.

The political parties in May 2012

Centre Party

If an election were held in May 2012, the Centre Party would receive 4.7 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared to both November and the Riksdag election in 2010.

Statistically significant net losses are noted for the Centre Party compared to November of roughly 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats and roughly 0.5 percent to the "do not know" group.

Compared to the Riksdag election of 2010 statistically significant net losses are noted by about 0.7 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats and about 0.3 percent to the Green Party.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 5.5 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in May 2012. Compared to November, no statistically significant change can be noted, but in relation to the Riksdag election in 2010 this is a statistically significant decrease.

Compared to November the Liberal Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.4 percent to the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.2 percent is noted from the Christian Democrats. At the same time the Liberal Party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.8 percent to the Social Democrats, about 0.4 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.2 percent to the Green Party and about 0.1 percent to the Left Party, compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.

Moderate Party

If an election were held in May 2012, the Moderate Party would receive 28.6 ± 0.7 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared to both November and the Riksdag election in 2010.

A statistically significant net gain is noted for the Moderate Party compared to November of about 0.1 percent from the "other parties" as well as statistically significant net losses of about 2.3 percent to the "do not know" group, about 1.9 percent to the Social Democrats and about 0.4 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

In relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 1.0 percent from the Christian Democrats, about 0.7 percent from the Centre Party and about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party. At the same time and in relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 1.8 percent to the Social Democrats and about 0.4 percent to the Green Party.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 3.7 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in May 2012. Compared to November, no statistically significant change can be noted, but in relation to the Riksdag election in 2010 this is a statistically significant decrease.

Compared to November, no statistically significant net flows can be noted for the Christian Democrats

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010, statistically significant net losses are noted for the Christian Democrats of about 1.0 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.2 percent to the Liberal Party, about 0.2 percent to the Social Democrats and about 0.1 percent to the Left Party.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 37.3 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in May 2012. This is a statistically significant increase compared to both November and the Riksdag election in 2010.

Statistically significant net gains are noted for the Social Democrats compared to November of about 4.5 percent from the "do not know" group, about 1.9 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.8 percent from the Green Party, about 0.8 percent from the Left Party, about 0.5 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.5 percent from the Sweden Democrats, about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.1 percent from the group "Other parties”.

In relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 1.8 percent from the Moderate Party, about 0.8 percent from the Liberal Party, about 0.8 percent from the Green Party, about 0.7 percent from the Left Party, about 0.5 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.5 percent from the Sweden Democrats and about 0.2 percent from the Christian Democrats.

Left Party

If an election were held in May 2012, the Left Party would receive 5.9 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. Compared to November, this is a statistically significant increase, while no statistically significant change has been noted since the Riksdag election in 2010.

In relation to November, the Left Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.4 percent from the Green Party and about 0.4 percent from the "do not know" group. The Left Party also has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.8 percent to the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 0.3 percent from the Green Party, about 0.1 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.1 percent from the Christian Democrats. At the same time, the Left Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.7 percent to the Social Democrats compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.

Green Party

If an election were held in May 2012, the Green Party would receive 8.1 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared to November and a statistically significant increase compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.

Compared to November, statistically significant net losses are noted for the Green Party of about 1.8 percent to the Social Democrats, about 0.6 percent to the "do not know" group and about 0.4 percent to the Left Party.

In relation to the Riksdag election in 2010, the Green Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.4 percent from the Moderate Party, about 0.3 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.3 percent from the group "Other parties" and about 0.2 percent from the Liberal Party. At the same time, the party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.8 percent to the Social Democrats and about 0.3 percent to the Left Party compared to the Riksdag election in 2010.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 5.4 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in May 2012. No statistically significant change has occurred compared to November or since the Riksdag election in 2010.

In relation to November the Sweden Democrats have a statistically significant net gain of about 0.4 percent from the Moderate Party. The Sweden Democrats also have a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010, a statistically significant net loss is noted for the Sweden Democrats of about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats.

”Other parties"

The group "Other parties" would receive 0.8 ± 0.2 percent of the votes in an election in May 2012. This is a statistically significant decrease compared to both November and the Riksdag election in 2010.

Compared to November, statistically significant net losses are noted for the group "Other parties" by about 0.1 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.1 percent to the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2010 a statistically significant net loss was noted of about 0.3 percent to the Green Party.

Figure 1 Net flows from the Riksdag election 2010 to May 2012

Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from the Riksdag election in 2010 to May 2012 for the various parties. The figures report significant net losses and net gains in percent of all submitted information on the chosen party in the Riksdag election in 2010 together with information on the parties that one would vote for in May 2012. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in the share of voters for the parties from the election in 2010 because there are also flows between parties and the "do not know" group. (unweighted information in table 21 in the table publication)

Figure 2 Net flows from November 2011 to May 2012

Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows from November 2011 to May 2012 for the various parties. The figures report significant net loss and net gain percentages of all who have submitted party answers or answered "do not know" for the question on which party one would choose in an election upon each survey round. (unweighted information in table 22 in the table publication)

Definitions and explanations

The party preference survey in May 2012 was conducted by telephone interviews of a national random probability sample consisting of 9 039 persons entitled to vote in the parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Of these persons, 17.5 percent could not be reached, 4.0 percent were too ill to be interviewed and 18.0 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 39.5 percent. A total of 5 473 interviews were conducted. In addition, some persons did not want to answer certain questions. The interviews were conducted by telephone during the period 2 - 27 May. The majority of the interviews were conducted during the first half of the measuring period. 83 percent of the interviews had been conducted up to and including 16 May.

The results are presented in intervals or point estimations ± margins of error. The interval that is created of the percent estimation ± margin of error here is a 95 percent confidence interval, which is an interval with a 95 percent probability including the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.