Unchanged industrial production

Industrial production was unchanged in April compared to March in seasonally adjusted figures. Comparing April with the same month in 2011, industrial production decreased by 6.2 percent in working day adjusted figures.

The development in production varied among the industry sub-sectors in April compared to March. The most negative development was found in the electronics industry and the printing industry. The petroleum industry showed the most positive development.

Industrial production was negative when comparing the most recent three month period, February – April, with the previous three month period, November 2011-January 2012. Production within industry declined by 3.1 percent.

Industrial production decreased by 6.2 percent in April compared with the same month in 2011. The development is on approximately the same level as the previous two months. The majority of the industry sub-sectors showed a negative development. As in the monthly comparison, the petroleum industry had the most positive development, while the electronics industry and the printing industry declined the most. The motor vehicle industry also had a weak development on a yearly basis.

The figures for April are preliminary. Since the previous publication the development in industrial production in March has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points to an increase of 0.2 percent compared to February. The change in production in March compared to the same month in 2011 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points to a decrease of 6.9 percent.

Percent changes in industrial production volume

NACE 2007	INDUSTRY TITLE	Share of value added 2010	Apr 2012/ Mar 2011^[1]	Feb‑Apr 2012/ Nov 2011‑ Jan 2012^[1]	Apr 2012/ Apr 2011^[2]
B+C	Mines and quarries and manufacturing industry	100	0.0	‑3.1	‑6.2
-	Intermediate goods industry	43.8	‑2.0	‑1.1	‑5.4
-	Energy excl. section D	1.1	15.8	2.4	19.4
-	Capital goods industry	32.2	‑0.3	‑1.2	‑6.1
-	Non-durable consumer goods industry	20.4	6.4	‑16.8	‑9.9
-	Durable consumer goods industry	2.5	2.2	‑1.1	‑3.9
B	Mines and quarries	6.1	‑2.7	0.1	‑6.4
C	Manufacturing industry	93.9	0.4	‑3.3	‑6.1
10-12	Food product, beverage and tobacco industry	7.8	‑1.3	1.5	‑4.2
13-15	Industry for textile and leather products	0.8	‑0.3	‑2.8	‑9.9
16	Industry for wood and wood products	4.0	0.0	‑2.4	‑8.4
17	Industry for pulp, paper and paper products	6.8	1.5	1.6	‑2.0
18	Industry for printing and reproduction of recorded media	2.2	‑6.7	‑5.1	‑15.6
19	Industry for coke and refined petroleum products	1.1	15.9	1.9	19.5
20	Industry for chemicals	4.2	..	..	..
21	Industry for basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	9.0	..	..	..
22	Industry for rubber and plastic products	3.0	‑0.2	‑1.7	‑7.3
23	Industry for other non-metallic mineral products	2.5	‑4.8	‑5.1	‑0.8
24	Industry for basic metals	5.8	0.4	‑1.2	‑5.0
25	Industry for manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	9.1	‑4.5	‑2.3	‑6.3
26	Industry for manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	6.9	‑7.1	6.3	‑15.9
27	Industry for manufacture of electrical equipment	4.5	‑6.5	‑2.7	‑7.0
28	Industry for machinery and equipment n.e.c.	11.0	5.5	‑1.8	3.6
29	Industry for motor vehicles	6.2	0.7	‑4.5	‑13.0
30	Industry for other transport equipment	2.5	0.0	‑3.2	‑8.5
31-33	Industry for other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery amd equipment	6.4	5.9	‑0.7	‑1.7

1) Working day and seasonal adjusted figures.
2) Working day adjusted figures.
.. = classified information

Definitions and explanations

The Industrial Production Index is based on input data from three different sources. The majority of the industries are calculated with information on deliveries, which corresponds to roughly 95 percent of the total added value. The conversion of delivery information into constant prices is done using the Producer Price Index, (PPI). Calculations for other industries are based on information about quantities produced and the number of hours worked.

Information about deliveries is collected via a monthly online questionnaire sent out to approximately 2 300 enterprise units. The survey's response rate is 80-85 percent, while the weighted response rate (where the size of deliveries for the responding companies is also considered) amounts to more than 90 percent.

All time series use 2005 as the reference base period. All monthly comparisons are based on working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted index values. Seasonal adjustment means making the corrections for the seasonal variations that reappear from year to year. The purpose is partly to show those changes that are not dependent on seasonal variations and thus can allow for comparisons with other months, and partly to study evident trends. Annual comparisons are only revised for calendar effects.

Revisions

When the Industrial Production Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. The material is normally revised for five months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 2000 onwards.

Seasonal Adjustment

Procedure
When seasonally adjusting the Industrial Production Index, every series is seasonally adjusted individually using the TRAMO-SEATS program. TRAMO-SEATS was introduced in 2004 for the Industrial Production Index and is recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment of official statistics.

An important part of this method is to identify a model for the actual time series for each industry. These models are used for forecasts of the actual Industrial Production Index for two years forward and the forecasts are used in the seasonal adjustments. Because the forecasts are completely dependent on the choice of the model, this may cause revisions of seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent. To reduce the effects of revisions in seasonally adjusted data, Statistics Sweden has chosen to follow Eurostat's recommendation to use fixed models during the period of one year. According to Eurostat recommendations, seasonal adjustments should be reviewed at least once every year, including the selection of models. This recommendation has been applied to the Industrial Production Index since 2004.

Review of the model
A new review of the model was done in connection with the publication in April 2012 for the data of February 2012 due to the correction of the original series done at the publication in March 2012.

Models for a number of series changed in connection with the review, mostly because the models are no longer optimally adapted for the input data. Due to the change in the model, revisions occur in the seasonally adjusted data to a greater or lesser extent, even back in time.

The next review of the model is planned to take place in connection with the publishing concerning December 2012.