To maintain the same dependency burden as today in 2030, almost 600 000 more people will have to be employed. The percentage of the population who work will have to increase in several labour market groups to achieve this. Higher employment rates among older people and foreign born persons would have the greatest effect on future employment.
If the percentage of the population aged 16-74 in gainful employment - the employment rate - remains on the same level as it is today, employment is expected to increase by almost 140 000 people by 2030. Since the total population is increasing at a faster rate, this will lead to the dependency burden (the total population/the employed population aged 16-74 years) rising from 2.14 in 2010 to 2.35 in 2030. Every gainfully employed person will hence have to “provide for” 2.35 persons including themselves in 2030 compared to 2.14 persons in 2010. For the dependency burden to develop at a slower rate, more people will have to work.
Future employment and the dependency burden will be affected if, for example, older people, young people, foreign born persons and women work more in the future. How large this effect will be on each group is presented in the report Employment in 2030 – can the current dependency burden be maintained? (summary in English).
Every additional year that older people work means an extra 80-90 000 persons in employment
If elderly people carry on working longer than they do today, the employment rate will increase noticeably in the future. For every additional year they work, employment will increase by between 80 000 and 90 000 people by 2030. If older people work four years longer, there will be a total increase in employment of 480 000 persons by 2030. Despite such a marked upward age shift on the labour market, the dependency burden will nevertheless increase slightly by 2030.