Retail trade increased in June

The retail trade sales volume increased by 0.9 percent in June compared to the same month last year. Retail sale for consumables decreased by 0.3 percent while retail sales for durables increased by 1.8 percent. The information is working day adjusted.

The turnover for retail trade measured in current prices increased by 3.5 percent from June 2011 to June 2012. Retail trade for consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) showed an increase of 3.3 percent while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 3.7 percent.

The retail trade sales volume decreased by 0.4 percent from May 2012 to June 2012. During the last three-month period (April to June), the sales volume remained unchanged compared to the previous three-month period (January to March). Both of these figures are working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Turnover development in retail trade June 2011 – June 2012

Changes are shown as percentages compared to the same period of last year.

Comments from HUI Research:

In line with the development so far this year, retail trade showed a positive development also in June, as the turnover increased by 3.5 percent in current prices. In constant prices, however, the development was somewhat weaker, only 0.9 percent. This is partly explained by a calendar effect, since June had an extra Friday and Saturday this year compared to 2011.

After showing a strong, positive growth so far this year, the retail sales of consumables decreased its volumes in June compared to the same month last year and performed weaker than the sales of durables. After experiencing some difficult months, several of the more capital-intensive industries such as furniture, electronics and interior decorating, performed unexpectedly well in June, the bad weather being one of the probable explanations.

The accumulated development so far this year decreased slightly during June and is now at 2.5 percent. This is however still a relatively strong development considering the recession and some persistent concerns. Overall, the stable yet moderate growth after the weak developments last year is likely to continue, and the forecast of HUI Research for the year as a whole remains at 2.5 percent.

Sales development 2012/2011:

Sweden

	Current prices			Working day adjusted, constant prices		Price change	Working day effect ^[3]
	June%	95% Conf.Int. ^[1]	2012% ^[2]	June%	2012% ^[2]	June%	June%
Retail sales for consumables	3.3	±0.8	3.6	-0.3	1.2	2.6	0.9
Retail sales for durables	3.7	±1.0	2.4	1.8	3.5	-1.7	3.6
Total retail trade	3.5	±0.7	3.0	0.9	2.5	0.2	2.4

International comparisons, comparison to same month of last year (working day adjusted, constant prices)

	Dec.%	Jan.%	Feb.%	Mar.%	Apr.%	May%
EU	0.1	-0.2	-1.1	1.1	-2.5	-0.4
Euro zone	-1.7	-1.1	-2.0	0.0	-3.5	-1.7
Sweden	1.4	1.7	3.5	4.2	0.3	4.6

Time series:

Current prices

	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June^
Turnover 2005=100	132.5	130.3	129.7	124.7	126.9	125.9	158.8	112.2	109.8	124.4	124.5	134.2	137.2
Monthly development %*	0.3	-1.2	1.7	0.4	-1.3	-0.3	0.7	2.2	6.1	5.0	-1.8	3.3	3.5
3-month development %**	2.4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	-0.4	-0.2	0.8	2.7	4.4	2.9	2.1	1.7
12-month development %**	2.7	2.4	2.2	1.8	1.5	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.6	1.0	1.1	1.4

Working day adjusted, constant prices

	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June^
Turnover 2005=100	130.5	127.4	126.2	119.7	121.3	121.5	154.4	108.4	103.8	116.9	124.6	128.6	131.6
Monthly development %*	3.2	1.1	0.3	-0.9	-0.6	0.6	1.4	1.7	3.5	4.2	0.3	4.6	0.9
3-month development %**	2.5	1.1	1.5	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	0.6	1.2	2.1	3.1	2.5	3.0	1.9
12-month development %**	3.1	3.0	2.6	2.1	1.7	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.5	1.1	1.6	1.4

Seasonally adjusted series

	June	July	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June^
Turnover 2005=100	123.7	122.5	122.2	121.8	122.3	123.3	123.5	123.9	125.4	125.4	124.8	125.2	124.7
Development %***	3.4	-1.0	-0.3	-0.3	0.4	0.8	0.1	0.3	1.2	0.0	-0.5	0.3	-0.4
Development for the latest 3 month %****	1.3	0.1	1.2	-0.3	0.1	-0.3	0.7	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.3	0.7	0.0
Development for the latest 6 month %****	-0.4	-0.3	0.0	0.6	0.1	1.0	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.3	1.9	1.6	1.8

[1] The true change is, with 95 % probability, covered by the estimated interval
[2] The period of January up to and including the given month compared to the same period of last year.
[3] The working day effect shows the basic conditions for sales during the period of the present year compared to last year. A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison to same month of last year.
** Comparison among the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison to last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3 or 6 month period compared to the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).

Definitions and explanations

Total retail trade refers to NACE 47, excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.

All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Results for June are based on the response rate of 78 percent. The weighted response rate considers the size of the turnover for the responding companies, which amounted to 93 percent. Results for May are based on the response rate of 80 percent unweighted and 94 percent weighted. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.

Revisions

When the Retail Trade Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. For the last month a new calculation has been made but other months may also be revised. The material is normally revised for twelve months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 1991 onwards.