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Turnover in retail trade, February 2017:

Retail trade increased in February

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-03-28 9.30

The retail trade sales volume increased by 2.7 percent in February compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 0.3 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 4.8 percent. This information is working-day adjusted.

The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices decreased by 1.3 percent from February 2016 to February 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) decreased by 1.0 percent, while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) decreased by 1.5 percent.

Retail trade increased by 0.2 percent between January 2017 and February 2017. In the last three-month period (December– February), sales decreased by 0.1 percent compared with the previous three-month period (September–November). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.

Turnover development in retail trade February 2016 - February 2017
Turnover in retail trade, February 2017

Comments by Andreas Svensson, HUI Research:

The preliminary sales figure for Swedish retail trade was approximately SEK 52.5 billion in February, which corresponds to a decrease of 1.3 percent in current prices compared with the same month last year. The weak result is explained by the extra business day in February last year due to the leap year. An additional business day in February corresponds to sales of approximately SEK 2 billion, which demonstrates why the effect on the growth rate is considerable. Adjusted for this, total retail sales increased by 2.5 percent.

With the preliminary February results the 2017 retail year has had a decent start. In the two initial months goods and services worth SEK 108 billion have been sold, corresponding to a growth rate of 2.7 percent (in current prices, adjusted for calendar effects). The first months must be interpreted with caution – January and February are the weakest months of the year in terms of sales, but the result follows the 2017 HUI forecast of 3 percent.

The preliminary sales growth for consumables was weaker than expected and should be interpreted with caution. Adjusted for the leap year sales grew by 2.1 percent, where 2 percentage points can be explained by price appreciation. The actual increase was therefore exiguous in February, especially considering the rapid population growth in Sweden.

The sales of durables increased by 3.3 percent in February (in current prices, adjusted for calendar effects). Among the more pronounced subcategories in terms of sales, construction, furniture and interior decorating in particular contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, electronics, clothing and sports had a more difficult month, all showing negative growth figures in February, even when adjusted for calendar effects. The sharp decline of electronics in February can be attributed to the negative publicity received during the month. Sinister news deflated shopping demand, which an increasing amount of notices of dismissals on the labour market reminds the retail industry of periodically.

The overall prices on goods and services in the retail industry remained virtually unchanged in February, but there are significant differences between the subcategories. The prices of consumables increased by 2 percent in February, which was the highest figure among all subcategories, while pharmacy, electronics, interior decorating, shoes and sports all experienced price depreciation during the month. 

Sales development 2017/2016
 Current pricesWorking day
adjusted,
constant prices
Price
change
Working
day
effect[3]
 Feb.%95%
Conf.Int.[1]
2017%[2]Feb.%2017%[2]Feb.%Feb.%
Retail sales for consumables
-1.0   0.0 0.3 0.4 2.1 -3.3
Retail sales for durables
-1.5   1.3 4.8 4.6 -1.4 -4.7
Total retail trade
-1.3   0.7 2.7 2.7 0.1 -4.1

International comparisons. Comparison to same month of last year (working day adjusted. constant prices)
 Aug%Sep%Okt%Nov%Dec%Jan%
EU
2.4 1.9 3.9 4.0 2.4 1.8
Euro zone
1.1 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.3 1.4
Sweden
3.3 1.5 2.7 4.0 1.0 2.7

Time series:
 FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan^Feb^
Turnover 2010=100
100.3 113 114.1 122.7 124.9 119.3 120.0 114.1 118.6 122.1 143.4 104.7 99.0
Monthly development %*
9.0 4.9 2.4 5.8 3.5 -0.8 5.6 1.9 0.2 5.2 1.3 2.6 -1.3
3-month development %**
5.7 5.6 5.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 0.9
12-month development %**
6.0 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.6 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.6

Working day adjusted, constant prices
 Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.^Feb.^
Turnover 2010=100
98.1 112.4 114.9 124.0 126.1 122.2 120.3 113.1 120.5 121.9 142.2 107.6 100.8
Monthly development %*
4.0 1.9 2.5 5.8 3.5 1.3 3.3 1.5 2.7 4.0 1.0 2.7 2.7
3-month development %**
4.0 3.3 2.7 3.4 3.9 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.0
12-month development %**
4.9 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7

Seasonally adjusted series
 Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.^Feb.^
Turnover 2010=100
117.2 116.6 117.2 120.1 118.5 117.9 118.6 118.3 119.4 121.3 118.1 120.1 120.3
Development %***
0.1 -0.5 0.5 2.5 -1.4 -0.5 0.7 -0.3 0.9 1.7 -2.7 1.7 0.2
Development for the latest 3 month %****
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.3 -0.3 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 -0.1
Development for the latest 6 month %****
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2

1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.

2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.                                             

3The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.

A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.

    ^ The given month's results are preliminary.

    * Comparison with same month last year.

   ** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.

  *** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).

 **** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).

Definitions and explanations

Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.

Revisions

When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at www.scb.se/ha0101.

More information:

Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.

HUI Research

Next publishing will be

Data for February will be published on 28 April.     

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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