Among Statistics Sweden's tasks is a responsibility for Swedish population statistics. Sweden has kept statistical records of its population since 1749. That year, 1 764 724 people lived in the country. It took 61 years for the population to increase from 2 million to 3 million, between 1774 and 1835. In 2004, Sweden reached 9 million inhabitants, and just 13 years later, some time in the first quarter of 2017, Sweden will pass the 10 million mark. The rapid growth is expected to continue in coming decades and by 2040 we may have 12 million inhabitants.
The population is increasing more rapidly because there are more births than deaths, creating a birth surplus. Immigration is larger than emigration, which gives an immigration surplus.
Rate varies over the year
The population also increases at different rates over the year, referred to as seasonal variation. Between April and September, the population increases at a faster rate than during the rest of the year. This is due to factors such as more children being born in these months. The slowest rate of increase is in November and December. This is because the birth surplus and immigration surplus are usually low at the end of the year.
Population figures are available on Statistics Sweden's website. These differ from the figures in the population clock, as they are published with a five-week delay. The population in Sweden is based on all those registered in the country. To be registered in Sweden, those who move to Sweden should have the intention and right to stay in Sweden for at least one year.
More information on who is included in Sweden's population
How Statistics Sweden calculated the population growth
The population clock is based on a projection model of population growth by month t.
The model takes into account that population growth varies over the year.
Growth current month = Growth rate previous month + Growth rate current month one year ago – Growth rate 13 months ago + adjustment based on how much the previous month's forecast deviated from the real population growth.
Or to put it simpler:
Population October 2016 = September 2016 + October 2015 - September 2015 + adjustment
The model contains some uncertainty, and Statistics Sweden will only know after the fact when Sweden's population reached the 10 million mark. Also, we will not know the identity of the person responsible for helping Sweden reach the 10 million mark - it may be a newborn child, a person who receives a residence permit or someone who re-immigrates to Sweden after a few years abroad.
Facts: Million mark milestones in Sweden's population figures
Details of when Sweden's population exceeded 1 million inhabitants are not available. Sweden experienced a population decline around 1770, which meant that the population surpassed 2 million twice – in 1767 and in 1774.
For further information
Nizar Chakkour, Chief Press Officer
+46 10 479 44 44, +46 767 20 44 44
Tomas Johansson, population statistician
Michael Franzén, method statistician