Political Party Preference Survey November 2015

The change refers to comparisons with the Riksdag election 2014 in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

The table below presents the estimations for the parties from the latest surveys as well as the latest election result. Changes compared to the Riksdag election 2014 and Political Party Preference Survey in May 2015 can also be seen to the right. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimates of election results "if an election had been held today". November 2015

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few coming days?

The parties in November 2015

Centre Party

If an election were held in November 2015, the Centre Party would receive 6.5 ±0.4 percent of the votes. No statistically significant change has occurred compared to May 2015 or with the Riksdag election in 2014.

In relation to May 2015, the Centre Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.2 percent from the Social Democrats and about 0.2 percent from the Green Party. At the same time a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats is noted.

Compared to the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 0.7 percent from the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent from the Green Party. At the same time a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent to the Sweden Democrats is noted.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 5.5 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in November 2015. Compared to May 2015 this is a statistically significant increase, but i relation to the Riksdag election in 2014, this is not a statistically significant change.

Compared to the Riksdag election in 2014, a statistically significant net loss of 0.3 percent is noted to the Sweden Democrats.

Moderate Party

If there had been an election in November 2015, the Moderate Party would receive 23.5 ± 0.8 percent of the votes. Compared to May 2015 this is a statistically significant decrease, but in relation to the Riksdag election in 2014, this is not a statistically significant change.

In relation to May 2015, the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 1.8 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

In relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 1.4 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.2 percent from the Green Party and about 0.1 percent from "other parties". At the same time and compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 2.8 percent to the Sweden Democrats and about 0.7 percent to the Centre Party.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 3.5 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2015. Compared with May, this is not a statistically significant change, while compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, this is a statistically significant decrease.

In relation to May, the Christian Democrats have a statistically significant net gain of about 0.1 percent from the Sweden Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election 2014, a statistically significant net loss of 0.5 percent is noted to the Sweden Democrats.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 27.6 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in November 2015. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with both May and the Riksdag election in 2014.

In relation to May 2015, the Social Democrats have a statistically significant net gain of about 0.6 percent from the Left Party. At the same time, statistically significant net losses are noted of about 1.1 percent to the "do not know" group, about 0.6 percent to the Sweden Democrats and about 0.2 percent to the Centre Party.

In relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 0.5 percent from the Green Party and about 0.5 percent from "other parties". At the same time and compared with the Riksdag election, the Social Democrats have statistically significant net losses of about 2.3 percent to the Sweden Democrats and about 1.4 percent to the Moderate Party.

Left Party

If an election were held in November 2015, the Left Party would receive 5.5 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. Compared with May 2015, this is a statistically significant decrease, but in relation to the Riksdag election in 2014 this is not a statistically significant change.

In relation to May, the Left Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.6 percent to the Social Democrats.

Compared to the Riksdag election 2014 a statistically significant net gain of about 0.6 percent is noted from "other parties".

Green Party

If an election were held in November 2015, the Green Party would receive 5.9 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with both May and the Riksdag election in 2014.

In relation to May the Green Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent to the Centre Party.

In relation to the Riksdag election 2014, the Green Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.3 percent from "other parties". At the same time the party has statistically significant net losses in relation to the 2014 Riksdag election of about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats, about 0.3 percent to the Centre Party, about 0.2 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 19.9 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in November 2015. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both May and the Riksdag election in 2014.

In relation to May, the Sweden Democrats have statistically significant net gains of about 1.8 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.4 percent from the group ”do not know”, about 0.6 percent from the Social Democrats and about 0.2 percent from the Centre Party. At the same time a statistically significant loss of about 0.1 percent to the Christian Democrats is noted.

Compared to the Riksdag election 2014, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 2.8 percent from the Moderate Party, about 2.3 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.5 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.5 percent from the Christian Democrats, about 0.3 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.2 percent from the Green Party.

”Other parties"

The group "other parties" would receive 2.1 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in November 2015. Compared with May, this is not a statistically significant change, while compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, this is a statistically significant decrease.

Compared with the Riksdag election in 2014, statistically significant net losses of about 0.6 percent are noted to the Left Party, about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats, about 0.3 percent to the Green Party and about 0.1 percent to the Moderate Party.

Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows from the Riksdag election 2014 to November 2015 for the different parties. The figures report significant net losses and net gains in percent of all who have submitted information about the chosen party in the Riksdag election, and also about which party one would choose if there were an election in November 2015. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in the share of voters for the parties from the election in 2014 because there are also flows between parties and the "do not know" group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table publication published 3 December.)

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in November 2015 was conducted with a national random probability sample consisting of 9 021 persons entitled to vote in the parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. From the survey of May 2015 onwards, answers are collected from these selected persons through telephone interviews as well as web questionnaires. Introduction of this type of mixed collection has been conducted under controlled forms, and analyses of patterns of response have been conducted prior to publishing. The sample method is exactly the same as previously, with a random sample from the population register. The difference is that in the beginning of the data collection period, parts of the sample have been given the option to reply via a web questionnaire. If they have not replied via the web questionnaire, they have been contacted via telephone later on. Like the previous surveys, all available telephone numbers have been used to contact the selected persons, both via mobile phones and home phones.

Of sample persons, 25.9 percent could not be reached (including unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.2 percent were too ill to be interviewed and 15.8 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 44.9 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 972. In addition, some persons did not want to answer certain questions. The data was collected during the period 2 - 25 November. A more detailed report of non-response will be published on 3 December.

The results are presented in intervals or point estimations ± margins of error. The interval that is created of the percent estimation ± margin of error here is a 95 percent confidence interval, which is an interval with a 95 percent probability including the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

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