The future population of Sweden 2015–2060:
Three million more live in Sweden in 2060
Up to 2060 the population of Sweden is expected to increase by roughly 3 million persons, amounting to 12.9 million. Today our population is 9.7 million and by next year we expect to pass the 10 million mark. These are the findings of Statistics Sweden's population projection with new assumptions about migration, childbearing and mortality in both the short term and the long term.
Over the next few years a significant population increase is expected of close to 150 persons per year. This is mainly due to an assumption that immigration to Sweden will continue at a high rate, above all from Syria. In the long term immigration is expected to be somewhat lower at about 50 000 persons per year.
Every year during the entire forecast period, more births than deaths are expected. In addition, more people will immigrate than emigrate. Up to 2045, net migration (that more will immigrate than emigrate) is highly significant for the increased population. After 2045 the natural population increase (that more births than deaths occur) is of greater significance than migration for the population increase.
More school children, older and foreign born persons
One clear change in the population structure is an increase in the number of older persons. Life expectancy has increased and is assumed to increase in the future, leading to a greater number of older persons. In 2045 it is estimated that more than one million persons in Sweden will be age 80 or older. The sharp increase in the number of older persons means that the share of those aged 20–64 will decrease, despite an increase in the number of persons in that age group. In 2014, 58 percent of the population was in this age group, while in 2060 this percentage will decrease to 52 percent. The number of children in school aged 7–15 is also expected to increase, especially in the next 20 years. In the middle of the 2030s, more than 30 percent more children of school ages are expected than today.
Another clear change in the population structure is that more and more persons of actively working ages and older will have been born abroad. In 2014, the starting point for this projection, one-fifth of the persons aged 25–64 were born abroad. This percentage is expected to increase to one-fourth in 2020, and close to one-third in 2030. As the years go by, the percentage of foreign born persons of older ages will increase and in 2060, an estimated one-fourth of those who are age 80 and older will have been born abroad.
Migration to and from Sweden continues to be high
The forecast of asylum seekers who immigrate is based on the Swedish Migration Agency's assumption about the large number of people expected to seek asylum in Sweden, mainly because of the civil war in Syria. The conflict is expected to subside in a few years, which means a lower rate of immigration of asylum seekers. Immigration of family members is expected to remain at relatively high levels in the next few coming years, and migration to and from other EU countries will continue to increase. In the long term immigration from troubled areas around the world is expected to increase, but not at the same high level as today and the next few coming years.
An increased immigration also leads to increased emigration. Foreign born persons as well as Swedish born persons are expected to emigrate at an increasing rate during the entire forecast period.
Women are expected on average to have about as many children in the future as today. However, it is assumed there will be more women of childbearing ages, which means that each year during the forecast period, more children will be born compared with today.
In 2014 average life expectancy at birth was age 84 for women and slightly more than 80 for men. In 2060 the average life expectancy is expected to increase to age 89 for women and nearly age 87 for men. Of those girls who are born in 2015, half are expected to live to at least age 94. The expected corresponding age for men is age 92. This can be compared to those born 100 years ago, in 1915. Of the girls in that cohort, half of them lived to at least age 80 and half of the boys lived to age 73.