At Statistics Sweden we use cookies so that our website will function well for you. By continuing your surfing on our website you agree to the use of cookies. What is a cookie?

 
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden

2015-05-19 9:30 AM Nr 2015:605


The future population of Sweden 2015–2060:

Three million more live in Sweden in 2060

Up to 2060 the population of Sweden is expected to increase by roughly 3 million persons, amounting to 12.9 million. Today our population is 9.7 million and by next year we expect to pass the 10 million mark. These are the findings of Statistics Sweden's population projection with new assumptions about migration, childbearing and mortality in both the short term and the long term.

Over the next few years a significant population increase is expected of close to 150 persons per year. This is mainly due to an assumption that immigration to Sweden will continue at a high rate, above all from Syria. In the long term immigration is expected to be somewhat lower at about 50 000 persons per year.

Every year during the entire forecast period, more births than deaths are expected. In addition, more people will immigrate than emigrate. Up to 2045, net migration (that more will immigrate than emigrate) is highly significant for the increased population. After 2045 the natural population increase (that more births than deaths occur) is of greater significance than migration for the population increase.

More school children, older and foreign born persons

One clear change in the population structure is an increase in the number of older persons. Life expectancy has increased and is assumed to increase in the future, leading to a greater number of older persons. In 2045 it is estimated that more than one million persons in Sweden will be age 80 or older. The sharp increase in the number of older persons means that the share of those aged 20–64 will decrease, despite an increase in the number of persons in that age group. In 2014, 58 percent of the population was in this age group, while in 2060 this percentage will decrease to 52 percent. The number of children in school aged 7–15 is also expected to increase, especially in the next 20 years. In the middle of the 2030s, more than 30 percent more children of school ages are expected than today.

Another clear change in the population structure is that more and more persons of actively working ages and older will have been born abroad. In 2014, the starting point for this projection, one-fifth of the persons aged 25–64 were born abroad. This percentage is expected to increase to one-fourth in 2020, and close to one-third in 2030. As the years go by, the percentage of foreign born persons of older ages will increase and in 2060, an estimated one-fourth of those who are age 80 and older will have been born abroad.

Migration to and from Sweden continues to be high

The forecast of asylum seekers who immigrate is based on the Swedish Migration Agency's assumption about the large number of people expected to seek asylum in Sweden, mainly because of the civil war in Syria. The conflict is expected to subside in a few years, which means a lower rate of immigration of asylum seekers. Immigration of family members is expected to remain at relatively high levels in the next few coming years, and migration to and from other EU countries will continue to increase. In the long term immigration from troubled areas around the world is expected to increase, but not at the same high level as today and the next few coming years.

An increased immigration also leads to increased emigration. Foreign born persons as well as Swedish born persons are expected to emigrate at an increasing rate during the entire forecast period.

Women are expected on average to have about as many children in the future as today. However, it is assumed there will be more women of childbearing ages, which means that each year during the forecast period, more children will be born compared with today.

In 2014 average life expectancy at birth was age 84 for women and slightly more than 80 for men. In 2060 the average life expectancy is expected to increase to age 89 for women and nearly age 87 for men. Of those girls who are born in 2015, half are expected to live to at least age 94. The expected corresponding age for men is age 92. This can be compared to those born 100 years ago, in 1915. Of the girls in that cohort, half of them lived to at least age 80 and half of the boys lived to age 73.

Population statistics for 2014 and forecast for 2030 and 2060. Number of persons
  2014 Projection
2030
Projection
2060
Number of inhabitants 9 747 000 11 385 000 12 903 000
Number of children
in school aged 7–15
964 000 1 252 000 1 358 000
Number aged 80 and older 499 000 826 000 1 210 000
Number of births 115 000 129 000 145 000
Number of deaths 89 000 103 000 122 000
Number of immigrants 127 000 114 000 108 000
Number of emigrants 51 000 73 000 87 000

Definitions and explanations

The population projection is based on the assumptions about childbearing, mortality, immigration and emigration. All assumptions are uncertain, and especially those about immigration. In addition to the main alternative, the report presents alternative calculations of the population with other assumptions on childbearing, mortality and migration.

Publication

A more detailed report of this survey is published in The future population of Sweden 2015–2060.

Logotype

Responsible agency and producer

Statistics Sweden, Forecast Institute
Box 24 300
SE-104 51 Stockholm


Enquiries

Lena Lundkvist
+46 8 506 946 78
firstname.lastname@scb.se






Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.



Sweden | Box 24300, SE 104 51 Stockholm | SE 701 89 Örebro | +46 8 506 940 00 | +46 19 17 60 00