Press release from Statistics Sweden

2013-11-28 9:40 AM Nr 2013:299


Turnover in Retail Trade, October 2013:

Retail trade increased in October

The retail trade sales volume increased by 3.8 percent in October compared to the same month last year. Retail sales for consumables increased by 2.4 percent while retail sales for durables increased by 4.9 percent. The information is working day adjusted.

The turnover for retail trade measured in current prices increased by 3.3 percent from October 2012 to October 2013. Retail trade for consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) showed an increase of 3.7 percent while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 3.0 percent.

The retail trade sales volume was unchanged between September 2013 and October 2013. During the last three-month period (August to October), the sales volume increased by 0.3 percent compared to the previous three-month period (May to July). Both of these figures are working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Turnover development in retail trade October 2012 – October 2013

Changes are shown as percentages compared to the same period last year.

Turnover in Retail Trade, September 2013

Comments from HUI Research:

The month of October showed a significantly stronger retail development than we have seen for much of the year. This applies to both consumables and durables. Several of the capital-intensive industries, which have had to stand back for some time, are now showing positive figures. The more weather-dependent sectors of durable goods, for example shoes, have not yet regained momentum due to the warm weather this autumn.

Businesses related to the home, such as furniture, home furnishings and home hardware continue to increase. A combination of promotions in stores and a continued increase in confidence among households drives this development. According to The National Institute of Economic Research, consumer confidence as well as the households’ ability to purchase capital goods have increased in recent months.

The accumulated growth of retail trade is 1.7 percent. Retail trade is now facing its most important sales period and the strong growth in October suggests that there may be a good end to the year. Consumer confidence is stable, interest rates remain low and households have high savings. In addition, many industries show relatively weak comparative figures, which constitutes good opportunities for the full year. Retail growth is therefore likely to realise HUI's full-year forecast of 2 percent.

Sales development 2013/2012:

Sweden
 

Current prices

Working day adjusted, constant prices

Price changeWorking day effect[3]
 Oct.%95% Conf.Int.[1]2013%[2]Oct.%2013%[2]Oct.%Oct.%
Retail sales for consumables
3.7 ±0.9 2.8 2.4 1.1 1.3 0.0
Retail sales for durables
3.0 ±1.0 0.8 4.9 3.4 -1.8 0.0
Total retail trade
3.3 ±0.7 1.7 3.8 2.4 -0.4 0.0
International comparisons, comparison to same month of last year (working day adjusted, constant prices)
 Apr.%May%Jun.%Jul.%Aug.%Sep.%
EU
-0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0
Euro zone
-1.1 0.2 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.3
Sweden
1.4 3.0 3.4 1.9 2.5 1.5

Time series:

Current prices
 Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.^
Turnover 2010=100
103.2 102.5 125.8 92.1 86.4 100.2 99.7 110.5 109.6 108.5 107.9 101.5 106.6
Monthly development %*
2.0 2.1 -0.6 3.1 -1.3 1.1 0.7 3.3 0.1 2.8 1.7 1.9 3.3
3-month development %**
1.6 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.3
12-month development %**
2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5
Working day adjusted, constant prices
 Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.^
Turnover 2010=100
102.8 101.7 129.1 93.8 88.6 100.4 101.0 109.1 112.8 110.4 108.5 103.3 106.7
Monthly development %*
0.4 1.7 2.3 1.9 3.4 1.4 1.4 3.0 3.4 1.9 2.5 1.5 3.8
3-month development %**
2.2 2.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.9 2.6
12-month development %**
2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.3
Seasonally adjusted series
 Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.^
Turnover 2010=100
102.3 103.8 104.6 104.7 105.6 105.0 104.9 105.8 106.4 105.7 106.1 106.3 106.4
Development %***
-2.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.9 0.6 -0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Development for the latest 3 month %****
0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3
Development for the latest 6 month %****
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3

[1] The true change is with 95 % probability covered by the estimated interval
[2] The period of January up to and including the given month compared to the same period of last year.
[3] The working day effect shows the basic conditions for sales during the period of the present year compared to last year. A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison to same month of last year.
** Comparison among the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison to last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3 or 6 month period compared to the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).

Definitions and explanations

Total retail trade refers to NACE 47, excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.

All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.

Revisions

When the Retail Trade Index for a new month is published, the index for previous months is also revised. For the last month a new calculation has been made but other months may also be revised. The material is normally revised for twelve months retroactively. This is mainly due to new and revised information that has been received. Working day adjusted figures, seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are always revised from January 1991 onwards.

Important message - a new model for seasonal adjustment and working day adjustment as well as a change in the reference year have been introduced as of January 2013

Seasonal adjustment and working day adjustment

The Retail Trade Index is one of the key indicators in the economic short-term statistics. The transfer to the new model for seasonal adjustment and working day adjustment means that the Retail Trade Index is handled according to principles in other surveys at Statistics Sweden. The new model follows the principle for seasonal adjustment at Statistics Sweden, which is designed according to guidelines and recommendations from Eurostat.

For more information about this new model, please contact Statistics Sweden at inrikeshandel@scb.se.

Change of reference year

According to Eurostat requirements, the reference year for index series is to be changed every fifth year. This does not involve any changes in the development figures for the Retail Trade Index, because a chain index method is used.

Next publishing will be

Data for November will be published on 30 December 2013.

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Statistical agency and producer

Statistics Sweden
SE-701 89 Örebro
Fax +46 19 17 69 24


Enquires

Emilia Hygstedt
Phone +46 19 17 64 19
E-mail firstname.lastname@scb.se





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