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Labour Force Surveys (LFS), March 2020

Large decrease in the number of hours worked

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2020-04-21 9.30

In March 2020, there were 5 055 000 employed persons. The number of unemployed persons was 389 000, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent. The average number of hours worked per week was 161.7 million, a decrease of 3.5 percent in calendar adjusted figures. Smoothed and seasonally adjusted data indicates a decrease in the number of employed persons. The unemployment rate increased and amounted to 7.2 percent.

The LFS continuously measures the labour market situation during all weeks of the year. The LFS for March 2020 covers the period from 24 February to 29 March, weeks 9─13. This means that the outcome for March reflects an average for a period that covers the time both before and after the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the Swedish labour market. As this sudden and major shift on the labour market took place in the middle of the reference period, the results of the March LFS will not fully reflect the current situation.

Despite this, there are clear signs of the effects of the crisis in several estimations in the LFS for March. There was a significant drop in the number of persons in the labour force for the first time since the financial crisis. The number of hours worked per week also decreased relatively sharply, at the same time as the number of employed persons who have been completely absent from work has increased.

For March, underlying microdata shows that the labour market situation has altered during the period. For example, the drop in the number of hours worked is much more substantial in the collected data that refers to the latter part of the month compared with earlier in the reference period. There is also a sharp increase in absence during the period, in which absence due to illness, layoffs and redundancy increased in the later weeks in the period.

In March 2020, there were 5 444 000 persons aged 15–74 in the labour force, not seasonally adjusted. This is a decrease of 76 000 persons compared with the corresponding month a year ago. It is the first month since July 2009 in which there is a significant decrease in the number of persons in the labour force. There were 2 873 000 men in the labour force and the number of women decreased by 65 000 and amounted to 2 572 000. This decrease in the number of persons in the labour force is mainly explained by a decrease among young people aged 15─24. There were 566 000 young persons in the labour force, a decrease of 77 000.

The labour force participation rate among those aged 15─74 was 72.3 percent. This is a decrease of 1.3 percentage points. Among men, the labour force participation rate was 74.9 percent and among women the rate decreased by 2.1 percentage points and amounted to 69.5 percent.

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed data shows a decrease in both the number and the share of persons in the labour force compared with adjacent months. There were 5 470 000 persons in the labour force, which corresponds to a labour force participation rate of 72.6 percent. In March 2020, there were 5 055 000 employed persons aged 15─74, not seasonally adjusted. There were 2 670 000 employed men and 2 386 000 employed women. The number of employed young persons, aged 15-24, decreased by 53 000 to 440 000 persons. The employment rate was 67.1 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. Among men, the employment rate was 69.6 percent and among women, the employment rate was 64.5 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. In March 2020, smoothed and seasonally adjusted data shows that there were 5 077 000 employed persons, which is a decrease compared with recent months. The employment rate also decreased and was 67.4 percent.

There were 4 535 000 employees aged 15─74 in March 2020, not seasonally adjusted. Among men, the number of employees was 2 294 000 and among women it was 2 241 000. There were 3 830 000 permanent employees in the same period. Among men, the number of permanent employees was 1 966 000 and among women it was 1 864 000.There were 705 000 temporary employees. Among men, there were 328 000 temporary employees and among women there were 378 000 temporary employees. Compared with nearby months, smoothed and seasonally adjusted data shows a decrease in the number of permanent employees and minor changes in the number of temporary employees.

On average, the number of hours worked in March 2020 amounted to 161.7 million per week, not seasonally adjusted, a decrease of 3.5 percent in calendar adjusted figures compared with March 2019. Smoothed and seasonally adjusted data showed a decrease in the number of hours worked per week compared with recent months. On average, the number of hours worked amounted to 148.2 million per week in March 2020.

In March 2020, there were 389 000 unemployed persons aged 15─74, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent. There were 186 000 unemployed women, and 203 000 unemployed men. The unemployment rate was 7.2 percent among women, and 7.1 percent among men. Among young persons aged 15─24, there were 127 000 unemployed persons, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 22.3 percent. Among unemployed young people, 86 000 persons were full-time students, a decrease of 32 000 persons.

Among persons aged 15–74, smoothed and seasonally adjusted data shows an increase in both the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate, compared with nearby months. There were 393 000 unemployed persons in March 2020, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. Among young persons aged 15─24, smoothed and seasonally adjusted data shows a decrease in the number of unemployed persons and an increase in the unemployment rate. There were 123 000 unemployed young persons, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 21.1 percent.

The impact of COVID-19 on employment and unemployment

The result of the LFS for March does not show any statistically significant change among those aged 15─74, neither for employment nor for unemployment. Part of the explanation for this may be the reference period dates, mentioned earlier. Furthermore, there are also factors related to the LFS definitions that should be taken into account when examining the results.

The first factor is the fact that, in the LFS, persons who are laid off temporarily are classified as being employed, which is natural, since temporary layoff is a measure that aims to help persons to avoid losing their employment. If the layoff is full-time, these persons are classified as being employed and absent for the whole week, thereby only affecting the estimations for the number of persons in work and the number of hours worked.

The second factor is that the numerous notices filed in the second half of the reference period for the LFS in March had not yet come into effect during the period.

A third factor is that persons who are not employed must look and be available for work in order to be classified as unemployed in the LFS. If they do not meet these requirements, they will be classified as being outside the labour force. Unemployment is the most commonly used measure of unused labour supply, but it may need to be supplemented by other measures in certain situations.

Absence from work

Among employed persons, absence has increased significantly compared with a year ago, above all due to illness. In March 2020, 602 000 employed persons aged 15─74 were completely absent during the reference week, an increase of 123 000 compared with the same month a year ago. There were 219 000 persons absent due to illness, an increase of 98 000 persons from a year ago.

The underlying data shows that the number of persons absent from work for less common reasons, such as layoffs and redundancy also increased in the last two weeks of March.

Employment rate, persons aged 15–74
Labour Force Surveys (LFS), March 2020

Employment rate by sex, smoothed and seasonally adjusted data, persons aged 15–74
Labour Force Surveys (LFS), March 2020

Unemployment rate, persons aged 15–74
Labour Force Surveys (LFS), March 2020

Unemployment rate by sex, smoothed and seasonally adjusted data, persons aged 15–74
Labour Force Surveys (LFS), March 2020

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2020-05-25 at 9:30.

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