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Life expectancy at birth and age 65 by sex 1970–2019 and projection 2020–2070



The assumptions about the changes in mortality rates until 2070 indicate that there will be a continuous increase in the life expectancy at birth and in the life expectancy at age 65. Between 1970 and 2019, life expectancy at birth increased from just over 77 years to nearly 85 years for women and from just over 72 years to over 81 years for men. This was an increase of 7.5 years for women and 9 years for men. It is expected that by 2070 life expectancy at birth will increase to 89.6 years for women and 87.4 years for men – an increase of 5.1 and 6.4 years for each sex, respectively.

In the projections it was assumed that the increase in life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2070 will be smaller than the increase observed between 1970 and 2019. Up to 2070, the average increase per decade was estimated at 1.0 years for women and 1.2 years for men. During the period 1970–2019, the increase per decade was higher, at 1.5 years for women and 1.8 years for men. A slower increase in life expectancy is a consequence of the fact that mortality rates are assumed to decrease on a relative scale, which implies at it declines at a slower pace in absolute terms.

This projection is based on calculations carried out on 16–20 March 2020, at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, and it was not yet possible to assess the economic impact, in particular. At the time, there were signs of a pending economic decline, and in the period between the calculations and publication, these signs have become more pronounced. The extent of the economic decline remains uncertain, and thereby also its impact on the population development.

The future population of Sweden 2020-2070

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