“The rise in the inflation rate in March is largely explained by price increases on fuel, as well as price increases on vegetables such as peppers and tomatoes. Fuel prices were relatively low in the same month a year ago, but have now recovered,” says Beatrice Ljung, statistician at Statistics Sweden.

In brief

Seasonal patterns and temporary price changes

Price changes on goods and services may be seasonal or temporary. The figure above shows the monthly changes this year and in the two most recent years for the goods and services with the largest impact on the CPIF monthly change.

Fuel prices rose in March 2021, in contrast to the same period in 2020, when fuel prices fell considerably due to falling crude oil prices. For clothes, the price increase was seasonally normal and largely in line with the 2020 upturn, but was slightly higher than in the same period in 2019. For vegetables, prices increased in March this year, like in 2019, while in the same period in 2020, prices decreased. For some product groups including Chinese cabbage, peppers, leek and tomatoes, prices increased sharply and contributed to the upturn in the current period.

Prices on electricity fell in March, as they did in the same period in the last two years. Likewise, prices on recreation and culture fell in March in recent years. However, the downturn for the group medical products, appliances and equipment in this period deviated from March 2020 when prices increased.

Contribution to the inflation rate in March

The inflation rate according to the CPIF, that is, the change in the CPIF over the past 12-month period, was 1.9 percent in March 2021. The inflation rate increased from 1.5 percent in February.

The inflation rate was affected mainly by rising housing costs, in which electricity was the main driver of the upturn. Despite falling prices from February to March, prices on electricity in March 2021 were higher compared with the same period a year ago. In addition, prices increased on transport and other recreational items and equipment. Within transport, prices on fuel in particular were higher. Prices also increased on clothes and shoes. These price increases were offset mainly by falling prices within the group audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment.

The inflation rate according to the CPIF excluding energy was 1.4 percent in March, up from 1.2 percent in February.

Effects of the coronavirus pandemic on calculations

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, some services in the CPIF basket were unavailable to consumers to purchase in March. As in previous months, prices for these services have been imputed. The share of imputed prices was 0.82 percent in March. For further information, see the document “Special imputations during the coronavirus pandemic”.

Special imputations during the coronavirus pandemic (pdf)

2021-05-12 at 9:30.