Turnover in retail trade, November 2017:
Retail trade increased in November
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-12-22 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 3.8 percent in November compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 0.5 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 6.1 percent. These figures are working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 4.2 percent from November 2016 to November 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 2.9 percent, while durables (such as goods sold in clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 5.0 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.9 percent between October 2017 and November 2017. In the last three-month period (September– November), sales increased by 1.4 percent compared with the previous three-month period (June–Augusti). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Changes are shown as percentages compared with the same period last year.
Comments by HUI Research:
According to the preliminary outcome, retail sales grew by 4.2 percent in November, which is the strongest growth rate so far this year. Total retail sales amounted to just over SEK 67 billion during the month, driven by sales during Black Friday. The preliminary growth rate for consumables was 2.9 percent, but price increases accounted for most of the increase. Adjusted for price increases, consumables grew by 0.5 percent in volume. The preliminary growth for durables struck record both in current prices and volume.
This year's Black Friday beat all previous records and, according to PostNord, Swedish consumption amounted to SEK 5.3 billion during the first day of the campaign. However, the strong sales increase in November is at the expense of sales in December. For durables the importance of December has decreased and HUI’s assessment is that the negative trend is likely to continue. Another concern is whether campaign sales are at the expense of profitability. Statistics show that more than half of the sub-sectors in durables showed a negative price trend in November. This can of course be compensated by higher sales volumes, but if that is the case remains to be seen. Clearly, Black Friday is creating additional market concentration as the largest retailers can conclude agreements with manufacturers about specific products sold in large volumes at discounted prices, whereas smaller companies do not have the same opportunities.
The preliminary monthly outcome may be adjusted when the final outcome is published four times a year. The retail index is supplemented by administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency, which means that the final estimate includes all retail companies. For some time there have been major differences between the preliminary and the definitive outcome in the retail sub-sectors. Until further notice HUI will only comment on the development of the sub-industries when the final outcome is published.
Current prices |
Working day adjusted, constant prices |
Price change | Working day effect[3] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November% | 95% Conf.Int.[1] | 2017%[2] | November% | 2017%[2] | November% | November% | |
Retail sales for consumables |
2.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | |
Retail sales for durables |
5.0 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | -1.0 | 0.0 | |
Total retail trade |
4.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | |
| May% | Jun% | Jul% | Aug% | Sep% | Oct% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU |
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
Euro zone |
2.8 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
Sweden |
1.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Time series
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
122.1 | 143.4 | 105.1 | 99.5 | 114.8 | 115.7 | 126.0 | 128.7 | 122.2 | 122.4 | 116.9 | 122.7 | 127.2 |
Monthly development %* |
5.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
3-month development %** |
2.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
12-month development %** |
3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
121.9 | 142.2 | 108.0 | 101.3 | 115.0 | 117.2 | 125.3 | 128.2 | 125.6 | 122.1 | 116.3 | 123.9 | 126.5 |
Monthly development %* |
4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
3-month development %** |
2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
12-month development %** |
3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
120.0 | 118.0 | 120.2 | 120.5 | 119.9 | 120.1 | 120.9 | 120.8 | 121.4 | 121.3 | 122.1 | 122.7 | 123.9 |
Development %*** |
0.5 | -1.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
Development for the latest 3 month %**** |
0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
Development for the latest 6 month %**** |
1.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3 The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at:
Turnover in the service sector.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Enquiries about time series should be referred to Anton Hammarstedt at Statistics Sweden +46 10 479 42 28.
Next publishing will be
Data for December will be published on 26 Januari 09:30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.