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Statistical news from Statistics Sweden

2016-04-13 9:30 AM Nr 2016:79


The future population of Sweden 2016–2060:

Significant population increase is expected

In the next few years the population in Sweden is expected to increase by about 1.5 percent per year. From a historical perspective this is a very high level that has previously only occurred during a few individual years during the 19th century. According to calculations, in 2020 some 739 000 more persons will live in Sweden than today.

High immigration is expected in the next coming years; it is estimated that immigration will amount to 857 000 persons over the coming five years. During the same period, 287 000 persons are expected to leave Sweden. This means that migration will result in a surplus of 570 000 persons within five years. During the same period, it is expected that 623 000 children will be born and 455 000 persons will die. Accordingly, the number of births is expected to be 169 000 more than the number of deaths.

Even during the following five years 2021-2025, population growth is expected to continue significantly on the level with 2011-2015.

With such a quick population growth, the population in Sweden will surpass the ten million mark in 2017 and reach eleven million seven years later in 2024. A population growth of one million has never occurred so quickly. Sweden's population passed the nine million mark in 2004.

For all age classes that are presented in the table below, the population is expected to increase, with the exception of the 19-24 year age group. The large groups of persons born around 1990 who are now in this age group will be replaced by the small groups of persons born at the end of the 1990s. The decrease would have been even greater and continued until 2025, were it not for the expected net migration of persons of these ages.

Population of different ages in 2015 and forecasted change 2020 and 2025
Age class Population
31 December
2015
2020 compared
with 2015
2025 compared
with 2015
Number Percent Number Percent
Children under age 1 116 000 16 000 13,8 18 000 15,6
1–5 years 592 000 49 000 8,2 94 000 15,8
6 years 119 000 8 000 6,7 18 000 15
7–9 years 348 000 30 000 8,7 52 000 14,9
10-12 years 332 000 51 000 15,4 61 000 18,3
13-15 years 313 000 57 000 18,2 87 000 27,7
16-18 years 310 000 67 000 21,6 86 000 27,6
19-24 years 766 000 -48 000 -6,3 22 000 2,8
25-39 years 1 916 000 154 000 8 121 000 6,3
40-64 years 3 098 000 111 000 3,6 211 000 6,8
65-79 years 1 446 000 111 000 7,7 122 000 9,3
80- years 502 000 47 000 8,4 184 000 36,6
Total 9 851 000 739 000 7,5 1 244 000 12,6

The future number of immigrants is very uncertain

Forecasting future immigration is always associated with considerable uncertainty. Uncertainty is even greater today because of the many persons immigrating for reasons of asylum. The number of those seeking asylum as well as the number of those receiving residence permits are affected by political decisions, both in Sweden and in other countries. Furthermore, decisions can quickly change on the EU level.

The forecast about future population trends is based on assumptions about the future development of childbearing, immigration and emigration as well as mortality. The assumptions are based on historical trends as well as assessments about future development. In the short term, assumptions are based on asylum-related immigration from the latest forecast from the Swedish Migration Agency.

Definitions and explanations

The population forecast is a projection of the registered population. Persons seeking asylum are not registered; this occurs when they receive a residence permit and then they are registered in Sweden.

Publication

A more detailed report of this survey is published in The future population of Sweden 2016–2060.

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Responsible agency and producer

Statistics Sweden, Forecast Institute
Box 24 300
SE-104 51 Stockholm


Enquiries

Lena Lundkvist
+46 8 506 946 78
firstname.lastname@scb.se






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