– Shortage of persons with education and training within the fields of health and social care as well as upper secondary vocational education is expected to continue. According to Catarina Annetorp Hörnsten, Analyst at SCB, shortages in the year 2040 are expected among nurses and persons educated in social care as well as those with an upper secondary level education in industrial technology.

Trends and forecasts 2023 presents calculations over the supply and demand for persons with different education backgrounds up until the year 2040.

Shortage of persons with education in healthcare fields requiring certification

The need for professionals within health and social care is expected to increase in the coming years as a result of a growing and ageing population. With current completion rates, the supply of educated persons within these fields will not be sufficient to meet the increasing demand.

A continued shortage in the forecast period is, therefore, expected among those with a background in general and specialist nursing. Shortage is also expected among biomedical analysts, physiotherapists, and occupational therapists.

Demand for persons with an upper secondary vocational education will exceed supply

With current completion rates, the supply of those with a background in upper secondary vocational education will not meet demand. Among the upper secondary vocational programmes, shortage is expected to be especially prevalent in technology, manufacturing, and health and social care. The shortage is expected to be particularly large among those with an educational background in industrial technology as well as in social care. Shortages are also expected among those with upper secondary vocational training within electricity, data production, automation and communication technology.

Increasing demand for persons with upper secondary vocational education is partly due to employers increasingly seeking individuals with vocational education that corresponds with the specific profession.

Major shortage of vocational teachers

The number of children and youths increased significantly in the 2010s but has now levelled off and is expected to be roughly the same in the year 2040 as in 2021. The demand for certified teachers is, despite this development, expected to increase. This is because teachers lacking certification are expected to be successively replaced by certified teachers.

With current completion rates the total number of certified teachers is expected to be unchanged in the forecast period. There is, therefore, a continued risk of shortage in many teaching categories. The shortage is most extreme for vocational teachers.

Likely surplus of those with education in journalism, humanities, and the arts

The number of people with post-secondary education in journalism, the humanities and arts are sharply increasing. There is a risk of surplus in these groups as demand is not expected to increase at the same rate.

About Trends and Forecasts 2023

Trends and Forecasts 2023 presents calculations of the expected supply and demand for labour within various fields of education up until the year 2040.

The calculations are based on knowledge of essential conditions and assumptions about developments in the economy as a whole, the labour market, and the education system. The results should be interpreted on the basis of these assumptions.

Trends and Forecasts 2023