National accounts: Monthly GDP indicator, March 2024
Lower GDP in March
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2024-04-29 8.00
Sweden’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in March, seasonally adjusted and compared with the previous month, as shown by the preliminary compilation of the GDP indicator. For the first quarter as a whole GDP contracted with 0.1 percent compared with the preceding quarter. Both the month of March and the quarter as a whole had GDP-levels 1.1 percent lower than in their respective corresponding periods of 2023.
The GDP indicator provides an early picture of the development of the gross domestic product, GDP. It is compiled on a monthly and quarterly basis with more limited and preliminary statistics than the regular quarterly national accounts. The monthly version of the indicator lies outside the official statistics and is classified as statistics under construction.
“Swedish economic activity continued to weaken in the first quarter of 2024 with contractions in the months of February and March. This is the fourth consecutive quarter with negative growth.” says Mattias Kain Wyatt, economist at Statistics Sweden.
Balancing and revisions
In a first step, the GDP indicator calculates two separate GDP outcomes from the production and use side of the economy. Then a reconciliation is made in which one side is adjusted downwards and the other side is adjusted upwards to arrive at a single final result. Before reconciliation, the statistical data in March showed actual GDP development from the use side of -4.9 percent and corresponding development from the production side of -5.4 percent, compared with the corresponding month a year ago. In line with ordinary balancing procedures, this results in a reconciled actual GDP development of -5.1 percent.
For the fourth quarter as a whole, actual GDP development was -1.6 percent for the use side and -1.5 percent for the production side compared with the corresponding quarter a year ago. This resulted in actual GDP growth of -1.5 percent.
In accordance with revision policy for the GDP indicator, only months in the current quarter have been revised, that is, January and February.
March had three less working days than the corresponding month of the previous year, while the quarter as a whole had one less working day than the same quarter last year.
| Published 29/04/2024 | Published 10/04/2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | Use | Reconciled | Production | Use | Reconciled | ||
| January | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | |
| February | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | |
| March | ‑5.4 | ‑4.9 | ‑5.1 | ||||
| First quarter | ‑1.5 | ‑1.6 | ‑1.5 | ||||
Upcoming publications
Benchmark revision of the time series 30 May 2024
Every fifth year, the national accounts undergo a benchmark revision of the time series. The revision implies introducing any new or improved methods and sources into the accounts. The results of the next benchmark revision will be published on 2024-05-30 with the release of updated figures for the years and quarters 1993-2023Q4. For more information on the main components of the revision please see Revised GDP time sereies in May 2024 (scb.se)
Extraordinary release of National Accounts on 16 May 2024
The results of the benchmark revision will be published on 30 May but certain series will be released in advance, on 16 May. For details, please see Extraordinary release of National Accounts on 16 May 2024 (scb.se)
Additional information
Time series and revision history for the GDP indicator.
For more information about the indicator, see Compilation of the Swedish GDP indicator.
Next publishing will be
The GDP indicator for April 2024 will be published on 2024-06-10 at 08:00.
The ordinary calculation of the first quarter 2024 will be published on 2024-05-30 at 08:00.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.