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The future population of Sweden 2017–2060:

Less than ten years to next million

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-04-12 9.30

Sweden’s population recently passed ten million. In barely ten years, in 2026, the population is expected to have increased by one million, and Sweden’s population will reach 11 million. Since 2014, the population has increased by more than 100 000 people per year, and according to the forecast, the population will continue to increase by more than 100 000 people per year until 2024.

More children born and fewer immigrants are expected

The population projection is based on assumptions on future childbearing, longevity and migration.

There were 117 000 births in 2016. The number of births is expected to increase every year until 2023, when it is estimated that 133 000 children will be born. The increase is mainly due to the large cohorts born around 1990 being of childbearing age. Another explanation is the high level of immigration in recent and coming years. The level of childbearing is often high among people who have recently immigrated, in particular among those who have immigrated to start a family.

Average life expectancy has been increasing for some time, and is expected to continue to do so. In recent decades, life expectancy for men has increased at a faster rate than for women, and this is also expected to continue. Life expectancy for women remains higher than for men, but the differences will diminish. Increasing longevity leads to more people reaching higher ages. Among those born in 2017, 12 percent of the girls and just over seven percent of the boys are expected to be alive at the age of 100.

New rules make the forecast uncertain

In 2016, 163 000 people immigrated to Sweden, of whom more than 60 000 were refugees. In the same period, 46 000 persons emigrated. Last year, temporary legislation was adopted that involves limited opportunities for asylum seekers and families to be granted a residence permit. The new legislation is expected to lead to less asylum-related immigration, as long as it remains in force. After that, the asylum-related immigration is expected to increase again, although not to the 2016 level.

Population projections are always subject to uncertainty. In the current situation, with a high level of asylum-related immigration, the uncertainty is even greater. New rules, such as temporary residence permits, financial support requirements for immigration of family members, and border control has made immigration and emigration particularly difficult to forecast. Both the number of people who apply for asylum and the number of people who are granted a residence permit are affected not only by the situation in the home country, but also by political decisions in Sweden, other countries and at EU level.

Number of children born 1990–2016 and forecast 2017–2030

Definitions and explanations

The population forecast is a projection of the registered population. Persons seeking asylum are not registered; this occurs when they receive a residence permit and then they are registered in Sweden.

Publication

A more detailed report of this survey is published in The future population of Sweden 2017–2060.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

Statistical agency and producer

Statistics Sweden, Forecast Institute

Address
Box 24 300
104 51 Stockholm
E-mail
demografi@scb.se

Enquiries:

Lena Lundkvist

Telephone
+46 10 479 46 78
E-mail
lena.lundkvist@scb.se