Comments by HUI Research:

The preliminary retail sales volume in August amounted to more than SEK 66 billion, which means increased sales to consumers equivalent to SEK 2.0 billion compared with August last year. Retail sales increased by 3.2 percent in current prices. Preliminary sales of durables amounted to just over SEK 37 billion in August, corresponding to a sales growth of 2.7 percent in current prices. In the first half of the year, a milestone was reached in retail sales as all growth can be attributed to the growing e-commerce. It remains to be seen if this is a trend shift, but in the longer term this development points to the fact that physical stores face harder times. In sectors like electronics, clothing and sports, the channel shift is already apparent.

Preliminary sales of consumables amounted to just over SEK 29 billion in August, corresponding to a 3.8 percent increase in current prices. The preliminary growth rate is higher than expected and should therefore be viewed with caution. HUI estimates that the growth rate will be adjusted down when the final outcome is published.

Swedish retail trade has so far this year shown a slight slowdown in growth, but is still moving forward due to low interest rates, population growth and a high increase in employment. At the same time, Swedish households' expectations for the economy have declined in recent months. For the first time in a long time, both the macro index and the micro index of the National Institute of Economic Research's confidence indicator are downward at the same time. The picture of households becoming more careful is reinforced by the fact that saving is at record level. In one way, saving is a long-term consumption potential, but for short-term growth it is worrying that households are so careful to use their income for immediate consumption. HUI expects that the remainder of the year will maintain a similar growth rate and that retail growth in 2017 will land around 2.5 percent.

HUI's full-year forecast for 2018 is revised up to 3.0 percent after the government has presented a budget proposal that will greatly benefit consumption and retail next year. In particular, increased child support and reduced taxes for pensioners will give many households more purchasing power. Since the budget proposal primarily benefits groups like pensioners and families with children, HUI estimates that a higher proportion than usual will go to consumption and distributed fairly evenly between consumables and durables.

The preliminary monthly outcome may be adjusted when the final outcome is published four times a year. The retail index is supplemented by administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency, which means that the final estimate includes all retail companies. For some time there have been major differences between the preliminary and the definitive outcome in the retail sub-sectors. Until further notice HUI will only comment on the development of the sub-industries when the final outcome is published.

¹ The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.

² The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.

³ The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.

A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.

^ The given month's results are preliminary.

* Comparison with same month last year.

** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.

*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).

**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).