Turnover in retail trade, January 2018:
Retail trade increased in January
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2018-02-28 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 1.2 percent in January compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables decreased by 1.1 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 3.0 percent. These figures are working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 3.7 percent from January 2017 to January 2018. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 2.1 percent, while durables (such as goods sold in clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 5.0 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.1 percent between December 2017 and January 2018. In the last three-month period (November– January), sales increased by 0.6 percent compared with the previous three-month period (August–October). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Changes are shown as percentages compared with the same period last year.
Comments by HUI Research:
Retail trade started the year positively. According to the preliminary outcome, total retail sales amounted to around SEK 58 billion in January, corresponding to an increase of 3.7 percent in current prices compared with the same period last year. January this year, however, contained one weekday more than January last year, which affected retail sales positively by 1.5 percentage points.
January is a classic discount month, which means lower gross profit per product, but opportunities for higher sales volumes that can compensate for margin deterioration. The outcome for January shows that two out of three sub-sectors in durables showed price cuts, but at the same time, sales volumes were positive in the majority of the sub-sectors. However, whether volume growth compensated for price cuts remains to be seen.
The preliminary sales growth for consumables was 2.1 percent in January. However, the whole increase is explained by price increases. In constant prices (volume), the industry’s sales remained unchanged. The preliminary sales growth for durables was 5.0 percent during the month.
HUI’s forecast for the full year 2018 is 2.5 percent for total retail sales, which corresponds to sales of just over SEK 786 billion. HUI estimates that the conditions for consumption remain favourable. Household optimism, corporate confidence and an expansive fiscal and monetary policy mean that retail trade is expected to develop positively during 2018.
The preliminary monthly outcome may be adjusted when the final outcome is published four times a year. The retail index is supplemented by administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency, which means that the final estimate includes all retail companies. For some time there have been major differences between the preliminary and the definitive outcome in the retail sub-sectors. Until further notice HUI will only comment on the development of the sub-industries when the final outcome is published.
| Jul% | Aug% | Sep% | Oct% | Nov% | Dec% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU |
2.3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
Euro zone |
2.5 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
Sweden |
2.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
Time series
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2015=100 |
92.1 | 87.2 | 100.6 | 101.4 | 110.5 | 112.9 | 107.2 | 107.3 | 102.5 | 106.7 | 110.5 | 128.0 | 95.6 |
Monthly development %* |
3.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
3-month development %** |
3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
12-month development %** |
3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2015=100 |
93.9 | 88.1 | 100.1 | 102.0 | 109.0 | 111.5 | 109.3 | 106.2 | 101.1 | 106.8 | 109.0 | 127.1 | 95.1 |
Monthly development %* |
3.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
3-month development %** |
2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
12-month development %** |
2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2015=100 |
104.7 | 104.8 | 104.3 | 104.5 | 105.2 | 105.0 | 105.4 | 105.3 | 105.8 | 105.8 | 107.1 | 105.9 | 106.0 |
Development %*** |
1.8 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 0.1 |
Development for the latest 3 month %**** |
0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
Development for the latest 6 month %**** |
1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3 The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at:
Turnover in the service sector.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 89.
Enquiries about time series should be referred to Petter Ehn Wingårdh, Statistic Sweden +46 10-479 47 53.
Next publishing will be
Data for February will be published on 28 March 09:30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.