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Political party preferences in November 2021 To main content

Party Preference Survey in May 2022 – Election today

Political Party Preference Survey, May 2022

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2022-06-02 8.00

The Political Party Preference Survey presents election results if a parliamentary election were held in May 2022, as well as changes since November 2021 and since the 2018 parliamentary election.

In an election in May 2022, the votes would be cast as follows (percentage and margin of uncertainty).

Social Democratic Party (S): 33.3 percent ± 1.3 percentage point
Moderate Party (M): 21.3 percent ± 1.1 percentage point
Sweden Democrats (SD): 17.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point
Left Party (V): 7.8 percent ± 0.7 percentage point
Centre Party (C): 6.7 percent ± 0.7 percentage point
Christian Democrats (KD): 5.2 percent ± 0.6 percentage point
Liberal Party (L): 3.4 percent ± 0.5 percentage point
Green Party (MP): 3.3 percent ± 0.5 percentage point
Other parties: 2.0 percent ± 0.5 percentage point

The proportion of the respondents who were undecided was about 15 percent in May 2022.

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2022, and the difference compared with the 2018 parliamentary election

val_idag_maj_2022_eng.png

The change refers to a comparison with the 2018 parliamentary election in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

The table below presents estimates of the political parties in May 2022, in November 2021, and the latest election results. The table also shows changes from the November 2021 survey results and the 2018 parliamentary election. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2022

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few days?

  Estimate May 2022 Estimate November 2021      
Party Percent Margin of error Percent Margin of error Change since November 2021 Election 2018 Change since election 2018
C 6.7 ±0.7 8.4 ±0.7 ‑1.7* 8.6 ‑1.9*
L 3.4 ±0.5 2.5 ±0.4 0.9* 5.5 ‑2.1*
M 21.3 ±1.1 22.7 ±1.1 ‑1.4* 19.8 1.5*
KD 5.2 ±0.6 4.6 ±0.6 0.6 6.3 -1.1*
S 33.3 ±1.3 29.1 ±1.2 4.2* 28.3 5.0*
V 7.8 ±0.7 9.2 ±0.7 ‑1.4* 8.0 ‑0.2
MP 3.3 ±0.5 3.9 ±0.6 ‑0.6* 4.4 ‑1.1*
SD 17.0 ±1.0 18.6 ±1.0 ‑1.6* 17.5 ‑0.5
other 2.0 ±0.5 1.1 ±0.3 0.9* 1.5 0.5

* The change is statistically significant.

The political parties in May 2022

Changes in all political parties compared with the November 2021 survey and the September 2018 parliamentary election are described below. The flow of voters between the political parties is also described below as a percentage of the electorate. Only statistically significant flows of voters are presented.

Centre Party

If an election were held in May 2022, the Centre Party would receive 6.7 ± 0.7 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with both November 2021 and the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with November 2021, the Centre Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 2.0 percent to the Social Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party was noted. At the same time, the Centre Party has statistically significant net losses of about 1.8 percent to the Social Democratic Party and about 0.4 percent to the Moderate Party.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 3.4 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in May 2022. This is a statistically significant increase compared with November 2021, while it is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to the 2018 parliamentary election, the Liberal Party has statistically significant net losses of about 1.0 percent to the Moderate Party, about 1.0 percent to the Social Democratic Party, about 0.4 percent to the Centre Party and about 0.1 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Moderate Party

If an election were held in May 2022, the Moderate Party would receive 21.3 ± 1.1 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2021, while it is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with November 2021, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.7 percent to the Christian Democrats and about 0.6 percent to the Social Democratic Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 1.0 percent from the Liberal Party, about 0.4 percent from the Centre Party and about 0.2 percent from the Green Party. At the same time the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.6 percent to the Social Democratic Party. 

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 5.2 ± 0.6 percent of the votes in an election in May 2022. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2021, while it is a statistically significant decrease in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2021, the Christian Democrats have  statistically significant net gains of about 0.7 percent from the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent from the Sweden Democrats.

Social Democratic Party

The Social Democratic Party would receive 33.3 ± 1.3 percent of the votes in an election in May 2022. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2021 and the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2021, the Social Democratic Party has statistically significant net gains of about 2.0 percent from the Centre Party, about 1.6 percent from the Left Party, about 0.6 percent from the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent from the Green Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, there are statistically significant net gains of about 1.8 percent from the Centre Party, about 1.3 percent from the Green Party, about 1.0 percent from the Liberal Party, about 0.7 percent from the Left Party and about 0.6 percent from the Moderate Party.

Left Party

If an election were held in May 2022, the Left Party would receive 7.8 ± 0.7 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2021, while it is not a statistically significant change in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2021, the Left Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 1.6 percent to the Social Democratic Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Left Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.3 percent from the group Other parties. At the same time the Left Party has a significant net loss of about 0.7 to the Social Democratic Party.

Green Party

If an election were held in May 2022, the Green Party would receive 3.3 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with November 2021 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2021, the Green Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Social Democratic Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Green Party noted statistically significant net losses of about 1.3 percent to the Social Democratic Party and about 0.2 percent to the Moderate Party.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 17.0 ± 1.0 percent of the votes in an election in May 2022. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2021, while it is not a statistically significant change in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2021, the Sweden Democrats have a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Sweden Democrats noted a statistically significant net gain of about 0.1 percent from the Liberal Party.

Other parties

The “other parties” group would receive 2.0 ± 0.5 percent of the votes in an election in May 2022. This is a statistically significant increase compared with November 2021, while it is not a statistically significant change in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

Figure 1. Net flows from November 2021 to May 2022. Percentage of the electorate*

PSU_flowchart_maj_2022_mot_nov_eng.png

* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from November 2021 to May 2022 between the various parties. The figures indicate statistically significant net gains and net losses as a percentage of the electorate. The flows are based on all those who stated which party they would vote for or answered “do not know” when asked which party they would vote for in an election in each survey round. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with November 2021, because only statistically significant flows are presented and because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 22 in the table published on 8 June.)

Figure 2. Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2022. Percentage of the electorate*

PSU_flowchart_maj_2022_mot_riksdag_eng.png

* Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows in the electorate from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2022 between the different political parties. The figures indicate statistically significant net gains and net losses as a percentage of the electorate. The flows are based on the answers of all the respondents in the survey who stated which party they voted for in the 2018 parliamentary election and which party they would vote for in an election in May 2022. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with the 2018 election, because only statistically significant flows are presented and because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table published on 8 June.)

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women (W) and men (M). May 2022

val_idag_maj_2022_kv-m_eng.png

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. May 2022
Party Women Men Total
  Percent Margin of error Percent Margin of error Percent Margin of error
C 7.9 ±1.1 5.5 ±1.0 6.7 ±0.7
L 3.6 ±0.8 3.2 ±0.7 3.4 ±0.5
M 20.0 ±1.7 22.7 ±1.8 21.3 ±1.1
KD 5.5 ±1.0 4.8 ±0.9 5.2 ±0.6
S 38.2 ±2.0 28.2 ±2.0 33.3 ±1.3
V 8.5 ±1.1 7.1 ±1.1 7.8 ±0.7
MP 3.7 ±0.8 2.9 ±0.8 3.3 ±0.5
SD 11.1 ±1.5 23.1 ±1.8 17.0 ±1.0
others 1.5 ±0.8 2.5 ±0.7 2.0 ±0.5

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, by region . May 2022. Percent
Party C L M KD S V MP SD Other
  % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ±
Sydsverige 6.0 ±2.2 3.2 ±1.3 22.8 ±3.6 3.2 ±1.4 32.9 ±4.1 7.5 ±2.3 2.6 ±1.3 19.6 ±3.5 2.3 ±1.4
Småland med öarna 8.1 ±2.8 3.4 ±1.8 17.0 ±4.0 8.0 ±2.8 33.6 ±5.3 3.8 ±1.9 1.9 ±1.2 22.2 ±4.6 .. ..
Västsverige 6.6 ±1.7 4.0 ±1.5 21.9 ±2.8 6.5 ±1.7 30.0 ±3.1 9.4 ±2.0 3.5 ±1.3 15.7 ±2.7 2.5 ±1.1
Stockholms län exkl. Stockholms kommun 6.6 ±2.3 3.9 ±1.5 28.3 ±4.2 6.6 ±2.4 31.2 ±4.4 5.3 ±2.1 2.7 ±1.5 12.7 ±3.2 2.7 ±2.0
Stockholms kommun 7.2 ±2.8 4.9 ±2.1 16.9 ±3.8 2.8 ±1.6 33.9 ±5.0 13.6 ±3.4 6.3 ±2.7 11.8 ±3.6 2.5 ±2.5
Östra Mellansverige 5.8 ±1.7 2.9 ±1.3 22.6 ±3.3 5.1 ±1.6 32.0 ±3.6 7.7 ±2.0 3.9 ±1.5 18.2 ±3.3 1.8 ±1.2
Norra Mellansverige 6.3 ±2.6 2.0 ±1.5 20.0 ±4.3 3.7 ±2.1 38.9 ±5.5 6.1 ±2.5 1.5 ±1.2 20.4 ±5.0 .. ..
Mellersta och övre Norrland 8.6 ±2.9 2.0 ±1.4 15.3 ±3.9 4.9 ±2.3 40.0 ±5.2 8.0 ±2.8 3.8 ±2.4 16.7 ±4.6 .. ..
Totalt 6.7 ±0.7 3.4 ±0.5 21.3 ±1.1 5.2 ±0.6 33.3 ±1.3 7.8 ±0.7 3.3 ±0.5 17.0 ±1.0 2.0 ±0.5

Regional distribution

Sydsverige: Blekinge County and Skåne County
Småland med öarna: Jönköping County, Kronoberg County, Kalmar County and Gotland County
Västsverige: Halland County and Västra Götaland County
Östra Mellansverige: Uppsala County, Södermanland County, Östergötland County, Örebro County and Västmanland County
Norra Mellansverige: Värmland County, Dalarna County and Gävleborg County
Mellersta och övre Norrland: Västernorrland County, Jämtland County, Västerbotten County and Norrbotten County

A table of regional survey results from the current and the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database:

Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in May 2022 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 228 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without any upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 34.0 percent could not be reached, 2.4 percent were unable to participate, and 17.2 percent did not wish to be participate. The total non-response rate was 53.7 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 274, which corresponds to 46.3 percent. A more detailed presentation of the non-response is available in the survey’s Quality declaration.

The data was collected during the period from 28 April to 25 May.

The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent confidence, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Next publishing will be

On 8 June, information about political party preferences in May 2022 will be published, in total and by demographic group. Statistics Sweden has opted to split up the Political Party Preference Survey results to make it possible to publish “Election today estimate” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to make it clear that there are two different measurements involved. “Election today estimate” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?” while the political party preference is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.

The publication on 8 June also contains information about EU and euro preferences, in total and by demographic group, and the electorate’s attitude towards NATO.

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

Statistical agency

Statistics Sweden

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Thomas Helgeson

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