- The second quarter of 2023 was generally weak with declines in several of the main components of GDP. Net exports decreased, as did investments in inventories. Household consumption expenditure was negative for the fourth consecutive quarter, says Jessica Engdahl, head of section at the National Accounts Department.

What is GDP?

Gross domestic product, GDP, is defined as the value of all goods and services produced in the country. GDP is used as a measure of economic growth and is published quarterly.

Summary of the second quarter

Percentages refer to seasonally adjusted volume changes compared with the previous quarter, unless otherwise stated. Tables available at the end of this statistical news also show volume changes in relation to the corresponding quarter the previous year.

• Household final consumption decreased by 0.2 percent. The downturn is mainly explained by decreased expenditure on housing as well as recreation and culture.
• General government consumption rose by 0.5 percent. Local and regional governments rose by 0.3 percent while central government consumption increased by 0.8 percent.
• Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP-growth by 0.4 percentage points, mainly due to decreased trade inventories.
• Gross fixed capital formation remained unchanged. Investments in dwellings continued to decrease while investments in other buildings and structures increased, holding back the decline.
• Exports decreased by 0.8 percent and imports rose by 0.1 percent. Net exports contributed negatively to GDP-growth by 0.5 percentage points.
• Value added in the business sector decreased by 1.1 percent. Value added decreased by 0.8 percent in the goods-producing industries and fell by 1.2 percent in the service-producing industries. Government value added decreased by 0.4 percent.
• The total number of employed persons increased by 0.4 percent. The number of hours worked decreased by 0.8 percent in the whole economy and fell by 1.1 percent in the business sector. Labour productivity in the business sector was unchanged.
• Households’ real disposable income decreased by 3.0 percent compared with the second quarter 2022.
• Public administration noted a surplus of SEK 31.7 billion in the second quarter 2023. The surplus in the second quarter of 2022 amounted to SEK 86.1 billion.

Revisions

Non-adjusted GDP growth has been revised compared to the previous publication. The first and second quarters of 2022 have been revised downwards by 0.1 percentage points, while the third quarter has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points. GDP growth for the full calendar year 2022 has not been revised. The first quarter of 2023 has been revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.

GDP growth has been revised in seasonally adjusted values as well. The first, third and fourth quarters of 2022 have been revised downwards by 0.3, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, while the second quarter has been revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points. The first quarter of 2023 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points.

Changes to the Economic Statistics

Starting with reference years 2022 and 2023 there have been changes implemented to the business statistics. The changes aim at improving the statistics and more accurately reflecting the businesses and their activities. Amongst the changes is a review of the statistical unit KAU (kind of activity unit) implemented in Statistics Sweden´s Business Register (FDB). The review has implications on the statistics, primarily through a more comprehensive coding of ancillary activity in the FDB. Units that are coded as ancillary are assigned to the unit that they serve. In the short-term business statistics, the changes are implemented for the reference year 2023 while the annual statistics introduce the changes as of the reference year 2022.

Impact on the National Accounts

The basis for the quarterly national accounts (QNA) are the preceding annual accounts (ANA), published 18 months after the end of the reference year. The quarters of 2023 are thus extrapolated from the detailed ANA of 2021, published in May of 2023. The implemented changes to the short-term business statistics imply that there are differences between the business population that was used in the ANA of 2021 and that used for the compilation of the quarters of 2023. These differences will prevail up until the compilation of the ANA for 2022, published in May of 2024.

In the compilation of the quarterly accounts of 2023, adjustments for these differences will be made in cases where particularly warranted. Nevertheless, despite the eventual improvements that the changes in the business statistics will yield, there may be some increased uncertainty to the industry wise estimations for the quarters of 2023.

The GDP indicator for the third quarter of 2023 will be published on 2023-10-30 at 8:00.

Complete quarterly national accounts for the third quarter of 2023 will be published on 2023-11-29 at 8:00.

Every fifth year, the national accounts undergo a benchmark revision of the entire time series. The revision implies introducing any new or improved methods and sources into the accounts. The results of the next benchmark revision will be released on 2024-05-30. More information on the main components of the revision will be communicated during the first quarter of 2024.