Statistics Sweden publishes a projection of Sweden’s population every year. This new population projection covers the period 2026—2070. The presentation is broken down by age, sex, Swedish born / foreign born for each year. Population projections are an important foundation for planning in areas such as government activities. These statistics are also used as a basis for other statistics at Statistics Sweden that describe the future in Sweden.

Since 1970, the population has increased every year despite a few exceptions. During this period, the number of immigrants has been higher than the number of emigrants, and the number of births has been higher than the number of deaths. Population growth is expected to continue in the future and will be driven by the outnumbering of immigrants over emigrants. In the future, deaths are expected to exceed births in many years.

It is expected that in the coming ten years:

• deaths are expected to exceed births by 30,000
• immigrants are expected to outnumber emigrants by 200,000
• the population will increase by 170,000
• there will be 165,000 fewer children at school age
• there will be 179,000 more people aged 85 or above

More deaths than births

97,500 children were born in 2025, which was the lowest level since 2002. The number of births is expected to continue to decline and will reach the lowest point in 2028, when 95,000 children are expected to be born. The trend is expected to recover thereafter, with the number of births returning to the level of 2025 in 2030. Despite the continued decline in the number of births in the coming years, the number of children per woman, is expected to increase slightly compared with today, due to a decrease in the number of women at childbearing ages.

The number of deaths in 2025 was 92,000, which is 1,000 fewer than in 2024 and lower than expected. Nonetheless, the number of deaths is expected to increase in the future, especially in the coming ten years, as the number of the elderly people increases, and life expectancy continues to increase. Life expectancy for women and men in 2025 is 85.5 respective 82.5 years. It is projected to increase to 86.3 respective 83.5 years by 2035.

More immigrants than emigrants

Immigration has remained at a high level in the 2010s. So far in the 2020s the level of immigration has been relatively lower, with exception in 2024 when the citizens of Ukraine were able to register in Sweden following the Temporary Protection Directive. Immigration is expected to reach 80,000 per year in the second half of the 2020s. Among them, one out of six were born in Sweden, two out of sex were born in the Nordic countries or EU, and three out of six were born outside the Nordic countries or EU.

The level of emigration in recent years has been higher than previously. It is largely due to the administrative measures taken by the Swedish Tax Agency to improve population register. Emigration is expected to return to a more normal level in the future. However, 2027 will be an exception, when citizens of Ukraine are expected to leave Sweden following the expiry of the Temporary Protection Directive. In the long term, the number of emigrants will increase on an annual base, mainly driven by the increase of population in Sweden.

Population continues to increase

The population is expected to continue to increase. There will be more people at higher ages and fewer people at younger ages. The decline in the number of births in recent years and in the years ahead will result in fewer children at school age. The large cohort born in the 1940s are now reaching old age, which will lead to an increase in the elderly population. They are turning 85 years old in the coming years.

Regulations concerning Ukrainians affect the projection

The long-term assumptions in this projection are the same as the latest major projection conducted in 2024. The short-term assumptions have been adjusted based on recent population development and changes in conditions.

Citizens of Ukraine who have been granted a residence permit based on the Temporary Protection Directive may stay in Sweden until March 4^th, 2027. Accordingly, in this projection, Ukrainians with temporary protection are expected to leave Sweden in 2027 when the directive expires. The directive has been extended previously and is very likely to be extended again. Hence, two additional calculations have been conducted, with two different scenarios of emigration. In one scenario, one third of Ukraine citizens leave in 2027 and in the other scenario, no increased risk of emigration is assumed. These scenarios lead to a larger population size by 25,000 respective 35,000 in 5 to 10 years’ time compared with calculations done in the principal projection.