Statistics Sweden publishes a projection of Sweden’s population every year. Major revisions on the assumptions are conducted every third year. The most recent report of this type was published in April 2024. In the interim years, the population projection is updated with new assumptions only for the next few years. Results and assumptions are presented in the Demographic Reports series (only in Swedish) and on Statistics Sweden’s statistical database. Population projections are an important foundation for planning in areas such as government activities. Furthermore, these statistics are used as a basis for other statistics at Statistics Sweden that describe the future in Sweden.

During the period 2021—2025, the population increased by 45,000 per year on average. In the coming five years, 2026—2030, the increase is expected to slow down, 5,000 per year on average. One explanation for the lower population growth in the next few years is the decrease in population by 30,000 due to a significant number of emigrants in 2027. This calculation is based on current regulations, according to which the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive expires on March 4, 2027, and people who fled to Sweden under the directive, mostly from Ukraine, will be required to leave. If regulatory changes occurred and they continued to stay in Sweden, the population growth would still be lower than before, 13,000 per year on average.

There will be years when deaths exceed births

The total fertility rate is expected to increase slightly, while the number of births is expected to continue to decline for a few years before increasing. Life expectancy is expected to continue to increase. The number of deaths is also expected to increase as the number of elderly people increases. Previously, births have outnumbered deaths, with a few exceptions. In the future there will be years when deaths exceed births. In the past five years, the number of births has been larger than the number of deaths by 10,000 per year. In the coming five years, the number of deaths is projected to be larger than the number of births by 2,700 per year. Even in the long term, there are expected to be more deaths than births on average.

More immigrants than emigrants

It is expected that immigrants continue to outnumber emigrants, but net migration, the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants, is projected to be lower than before. The net migration in the past five years was 31,000 per year. In the coming five years, it is expected to be 8,000 per year, when the emigration of Ukrainians in 2027 is considered. If the departure of Ukrainians did not occur, the net migration in the coming years would still be lower than previously. In the long term, the net migration will be larger, 30,000 per year.

Rising life expectancy and an aging population

The increase in population is especially pronounced among people in older age groups. This results in a decreasing share of children and youth in the population and an increasing share of older persons. Today, 22 precent of the total population are below age 20. The share is expected to decrease to 20 precent by 2070. Meanwhile, the share of older people will increase. In 2025, six percent of the population are aged 80 or above. The share is expected to increase to 11 percent by 2070.

Projection based on current regulations

The current regulatory framework that applies today is assumed to continue to apply throughout the projection period. For example, it is assumed that all people who came to Sweden under EU’s Temporary Protection Directive will emigrate from Sweden in 2027, upon the expiry of the directive. This assumption leads to a higher level of emigration than immigration in 2027. Hence, additional calculations have been conducted, based on alternative emigration assumptions for this group.

Full report available in Swedish.