“Increased electricity prices and higher fees for rental apartments were among the largest contributions to the inflation rate according to the CPI in January," says Mikael Nordin, statistician at Statistics Sweden.

In brief

Monthly change since December 2025

• Electricity prices increased by almost 21 percent.
• Prices on package holidays, car rentals and other transport services decreased in January.
• Prices on dental services declined mainly due to changes in subsidies.
• The basket effect on the monthly change in the CPI was -0.19 percentage points in January 2026.

12-month change since January 2025

• Increased electricity prices were among the largest contributions to the inflation rate.
• Many rental negotiations were completed early, which resulted in increased fees for rental apartments contributing with 0.3 percentage points to the inflation rate.
• Interest expenses continued to offset the inflation rate according to CPI.

Large increase in electricity prices in January

The total price development from December to January was an increase by 0.1 percent. In the corresponding period last year, prices were unchanged.

The main contribution to the overall price increase in January came from higher prices on electricity, which rose by almost 21 percent. This is the largest increase in electricity prices since November 2024. Additionally, the temporary increased tax deduction for repairs, conversion and extension (ROT) returned to lower levels which contributed to higher housing costs.

The increased prices were offset by lower prices for package holidays, car rentals, transport services and clothing, which are more or less normal for the season. Prices for dental services deviated from previous years and declined, which can mainly be explained by a new subsidy for dental care. More specifically, as of the first of January 2026, the new subsidy applies to people who turn 67 years or older in 2026 and means that they pay 10 percent of the price for certain dental services.

The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPI based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPI in January 2026. The results are presented by COICOP category. COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.

Contributions to the inflation rate in January

The inflation rate according to the CPI, that is, the change in the CPI from the corresponding month a year before, was 0.5 percent in January 2026. This was an increase from December when the inflation rate was 0.3 percent.

The large increase in electricity prices in January contributed to a considerable price increase compared to January 2025. Electricity prices contributed with 0.7 percentage points to the inflation rate according to CPI, which was one of the largest contributions of all goods and services in the CPI basket. Higher fees for rental apartments also contributed to the inflation rate. Many rental negotiations were completed early, and this year’s new fees were applied already in January. Additionally, food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to increase compared to the corresponding month previous year.

Like previous months the inflation rate was counteracted by lower interest expenses for both owner-occupied housing and tenant-owned apartments. The reduced interest expenses contributed by a 1.3 percentage point decrease to the inflation rate according to the CPI.

The inflation rate according to the CPIF, which unlike the CPI is not affected by changes in interest rates on household mortgages, was 2.0 percent in January, down from 2.1 percent in December.

The inflation rate for the CPIF calculated excluding energy (CPIF-XE), was 1.7 percent in January, which can be compared with 2.3 percent in December. 

Different measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as CPI. The difference between the CPI and the CPIF is that the latter measure holds interest rates for household’s mortgages constant. Consequently, the effect of changed interest rates for household’s mortgages is only captured by the CPI and not the CPIF.

Additional to the CPI and the CPIF, the HICP is also calculated. The HICP is a harmonized measure of inflation used within the EU cooperation. Another index that is calculated each month is CPIF-XE (the CPIF excluding energy products) which is often used as a measure of underlying inflation.

Basket effect

Prior to the publication of the January index, the composition of the product basket used for calculating the CPI, CPIF and other related measures of consumer side inflation is updated. The consumption weights are recalculated based on new statistical data, while individual elementary product groups can be added or removed. Elementary index figures for the previous year can also be revised when updated price and weight information becomes available. The combined effect of all these adjustments on the figures is usually referred to as the “basket effect”. The table below shows the basket effect on the CPI, related index inflation figures as well as HICP for 2026. The basket effect on the monthly change in January occurs with the basket effect on the 12-month rate in December.

Changes in 2026

Changes in the production of the Consumer Price Index will be introduced from 2026. Please note that the document include new information about the publishing of the CPI flash estimate that will include new tables from the fifth of March. Moreover, new details about air travels and prescription drugs has also been added. For further information, please see:

Changes in the CPI as from 2026

Updated classification and reference year for the Swedish CPI

As from January 2026 the Swedish CPI will change reference year, from 1980 to 2020. At the same time the classification will be updated from COICOP 1999 to COICOP 2018. More information is available here:

Updated classification and reference year for the Swedish CPI

Statistics Sweden has carried out an analysis of how the rate of change figures are affected by the classification change. The effects are considered to be small. If the classification change would have taken place already last year, the 12-month change in January 2026 for the CPI would have been 0.01 percentage points higher. For the CPIF, CPIF-XE and the HICP, the corresponding calculation shows that the 12-month change in January 2026 would have been 0.02, 0.04 and 0.01 percentage points respectively higher. Statistics Sweden will follow up the effects of the changed classification throughout 2026.

For more methodological information, see:

Impact analysis for COICOP 2018 (Swedish)

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