Information about the CPI flash estimate
What is the CPI flash estimate?
The CPI flash estimate is a preliminary indicator for the aggregated inflation that is published five working days before the regular publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
What will be published in the CPI flash estimate?
Preliminary annual and monthly changes for CPI, CPIF (CPI with fixed interest rate), and CPIF-XE (CPIF excluding energy) are published in a separate table in the statistical database:
CPI flash estimate: preliminary changes in CPI, CPIF and CPIF-XE
Monthly statistical news are also published in Swedish and English.
Detailed indices (such as price developments for food, energy, etc.) are not included in the CPI flash estimate but are published only with the regular CPI.
How reliable will the CPI flash estimate be?
The CPI flash estimate is based on preliminary data used by Statistics Sweden for reviewing purposes. In the review process, minor errors in microdata are often detected and corrected before the final CPI is published. At aggregated level, these corrections have a marginal effect on the statistics. On average (measured as absolute mean error), the CPI flash estimate deviate by one-hundredth of a percentage point from the regular published inflation rate according to the CPI. Individual months may have deviations from regular CPI larger or smaller than one-hundredth of a percentage point.
When will the CPI flash estimate start being published?
The first publication of the Flash CPI took place on October 8, 2024, when preliminary figures for the September index were published.
Publication dates can be found in the publishing calendar.
How long before the regular CPI will the CPI flash estimate be published?
The CPI flash estimate is published five working days before the regular publication.
What do other countries do?
Publication of flash estimates for inflation occurs, for example, in the Euro area. If a country uses the Euro as its currency, they must publish a flash estimate at the beginning of each month. Statistics Sweden’s flash estimate is approximately one week after the start of the month.
Links
Investigation of the CPI flash estimate discussed in the User Council for Economic Statistics and the Consumer Price Index Board (in Swedish):
PM till nämnden för KPI (PDF)