Turnover in retail trade, November 2016:
Retail trade increased in November
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2016-12-22 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 3.6 percent in November compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables decreased by 0.2 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 6.4 percent. This information is working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 4.8 percent from November 2015 to November 2016. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 1.7 percent, while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 6.9 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.9 percent between October 2016 and November 2016. In the last three-month period (September–November), sales increased by 0.9 percent compared with the previous three-month period (June–August). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Changes are shown as percentages compared with the same period last year.
Comments by Andreas Svensson, HUI Research:
The preliminary sales figure for Swedish retail trade in November was approximately SEK 64.5 billion, which corresponds to an increase of 4.8 percent in current prices compared with the same month last year. Through Black Friday, November has become the starting point for Swedish Christmas shopping. This year, Black Friday also occurred at the same time as wage payments for many Swedes. As a result, conditions were favourable and further icing on the cake was that parts of the country suffered from snow chaos, which increased demand for winter products. As expected, durables accounted for the principal share of household consumption in the month. Consumables increased by 1.7 percent, while durables increased by 6.9 percent.
Almost all durable subcategories increased in November, and the summer’s sales trends were strengthened. Construction was the only subcategory that showed decreasing sales figures. However, the weak development in the industry must be seen in the light of significantly worsened market conditions. Nevertheless, Fashion and Sports saw a significant rise in sales due to Black Friday and the snow chaos that strengthened the demand for winter products. The growth rocket of the month was Interior decorating, which increased its sales by 19 percent. The disappointment of the month was Home electronics, with a sales increase of 1 percent. Home electronics has had a difficult year throughout, and in November comparative sales figures from the previous year were very strong. Still, the preliminary result was surprisingly weak considering the massive marketing activities during the period, and thus should be interpreted with caution.
Without doubt Black Friday increases sales in some of the subcategories of retail trade. However, the question is whether the shopping weekend hollows out profitability. Shoe prices dropped by 0.3 percent in November, which should be compared with an average level of price increase of 2.6 percent earlier in the year. In the entire durables trade, prices dropped by 1.2 percent in November. These are gloomy figures at the end of the year, when red figures should be switched to black ones. HUI’s full year prognosis for retail trade is SEK 77.7 billion, which corresponds to an increase of 3.5 percent compared with the previous year. The main concern in the forecast is how much of the Christmas trade disappeared during Black Friday. Some subcategories might have a tough December, but for the retail trade overall we expect to see yet another record.
| May% | Jun.% | Jul.% | Aug.% | Sep.% | Oct.% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EU
|
2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.8 |
|
Euro zone
|
1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
|
Sweden
|
5.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
Current prices
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
116.1 | 141.5 | 102.0 | 100.3 | 113.0 | 114.1 | 122.7 | 124.9 | 119.2 | 119.9 | 114.1 | 118.3 | 121.6 |
|
Monthly development %*
|
8.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | -0.1 | 4.8 |
|
3-month development %**
|
7.0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
|
12-month development %**
|
5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
Constant prices
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
117.2 | 140.8 | 104.8 | 98.1 | 112.4 | 114.9 | 124.1 | 126.1 | 122.2 | 120.3 | 113.2 | 120.2 | 121.5 |
|
Monthly development %*
|
6.1 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 |
|
3-month development %**
|
5.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
|
12-month development %**
|
4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
116.9 | 116.2 | 117.1 | 117.2 | 116.6 | 117.2 | 120.2 | 118.5 | 117.9 | 118.8 | 118.5 | 119.5 | 120.6 |
|
Development %***
|
0.2 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 2.6 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
|
Development for the latest 3 month %****
|
1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
|
Development for the latest 6 month %****
|
2.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
1) The true change is with 95% probability covered by the estimated interval.
2) The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3) The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year. A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** The latest 3 or 6 month period compared with the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at www.scb.se/ha0101.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Next publishing will be
2017-01-27 at 09.30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.