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The report presents analyses of how Statistics Sweden’s (SCB’s) education and labour market forecasts can be developed for university preparatory education. The report is an account of an assignment specified in SCB’s appropriation directions for the 2025 budget year. The assignment was to examine the conditions for reporting higher education preparatory upper secondary programmes separately, and to ensure that forecasts for these programmes take into account future demand for labour with post-secondary education.

The report includes, among other things:

• A review of current higher education preparatory programmes and how they are classified in Trends and Forecasts.
• An analysis of how the current forecasting model handles supply and demand for labour with upper secondary higher education preparatory education.
• Proposals for how regular forecast results can be further developed, for example through improved reporting of graduation outcomes, further education, and labour demand.
• Supplementary analyses comparing graduates from upper secondary school with forecasted first-time entrants to higher education, as well as alternative assumptions to highlight dimensioning needs.
• Conclusions on which development paths are possible within the existing forecasting model and which require continued methodological development.

What is meant by higher education preparatory programmes?

Higher education preparatory programmes refers to upper secondary programmes that provide basic eligibility for higher education. In today’s upper secondary school system, this corresponds to the Economics Programme, the Humanities Programme, the Natural Science Programme, the Social Science Programme, and the Technology and Engineering Programme.