Turnover in retail trade, December 2016:
Retail trade increased in December
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-01-27 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 0.6 percent in December compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables decreased by 1.5 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 2.3 percent. This information is working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 0.9 percent from December 2015 to December 2016. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 1.3 percent, while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 0.6 percent.
Retail trade decreased by 2.9 percent between November 2016 and December 2016. In the last three-month period (October–December), sales increased by 0.9 percent compared with the previous three-month period (July–September). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Comments by Andreas Svensson, HUI Research:
The sales figures for the last and most important month of the year managed to achieve positive growth and Christmas sales beat the previous record. The preliminary sales figure for Swedish retail trade in December was approximately SEK 75.8 billion, which corresponds to an increase of 0.9 percent in current prices compared with the same month last year. The record sales holds when adjusted for price changes, as the sales volume increased by 0.8 percent. The preliminary result for December was considerably weaker than the HUI forecast and the growth rate was one of the weakest growth rates in the year.
Consumables increased its sales by 1.3 percent. However, the entire growth is explained by price appreciation. The weak currency inflated the prices on imported groceries such as fruit, vegetables and fish. Measured in volume, consumables reduced its sales by 0.1 percent. The competition with restaurants continued in December, when home cooking was in the spotlight. The sales of durables rose by 0.6 percent in December. The most successful subcategory was Interior decorating, with a sales increase of 11.2 percent. Fashion and sports showed extraordinary November sales but were bypassed in December, when the growth rate was negative.
A possible scapegoat for the unusually weak Christmas sales is Black Friday, a shopping phenomenon that continues to grow every year. The hypothesis is that Black Friday reallocates sales from December to November, while at the same time reducing profitability, in particular for durables when products are sold at reduced prices on Black Friday. An analysis of sales statistics strengthens that view. The significance of December has been reduced, while the significance of November has increased. From a sales perspective, this warrants a combined analysis of November and December. In such an analysis, total retail sales end up at roughly 3 percent in current prices, which is considered an acceptable growth rate considering the strong comparative figures from last year.
The preliminary result of Swedish retail for 2016 is 3.3 percent, which corresponds to sales of SEK 750 billion. There are indications of slower growth going forward, and in 2017 the growth rate is assessed to be slightly lower. Household purchasing power is currently at a very high level and continued strong growth is deemed tough and unlikely.
| Jun.% | Jul.% | Aug.% | Sep.% | Oct.% | Nov.% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU |
2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
Euro zone |
2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
Sweden |
3.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | Dec.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
141.5 | 102.0 | 100.3 | 113.0 | 114.1 | 122.7 | 124.9 | 119.3 | 120.0 | 114.1 | 118.2 | 121.8 | 142.8 |
Monthly development %* |
5.4 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | -0.2 | 5.0 | 0.9 |
3-month development %** |
6.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
12-month development %** |
5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | Dec.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
140.8 | 104.8 | 98.1 | 112.4 | 114.9 | 124.0 | 126.1 | 122.2 | 120.3 | 113.1 | 120.0 | 121.7 | 141.6 |
Monthly development %* |
4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
3-month development %** |
5.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
12-month development %** |
5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | Nov.^ | Dec.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
116.5 | 117.2 | 117.3 | 116.6 | 117.2 | 120.1 | 118.4 | 117.8 | 118.5 | 118.2 | 119.0 | 121.1 | 117.6 |
Development %*** |
-0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -2.9 |
Development for the latest 3 month %**** |
0.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Development for the latest 6 month %**** |
2.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
1 Den sanna utvecklingen ligger med 95 % sannolikhet inom det skattade intervallet. 2 Perioden januari till och med aktuell månad jämförd med samma period året före. 3 Kalendereffekten visar förutsättningar till försäljning under perioden innevarande år jämfört med förra året. En kalendereffekt på 1,0 procent påverkar försäljningsutvecklingen negativt med 1,0 procentenheter. ^ Aktuell månads resultat är preliminära. * Jämförelse med samma månad året före. ** Jämförelse mellan senaste 3- eller 12-månadsperiod och samma period året före. *** Jämförelse med föregående månad (endast säsongrensad serie). **** Senaste 3- eller 6-månadsperioden jämfört med närmast föregående 3- eller 6-månadsperiod (säsongrensad serie).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at www.scb.se/ha0101.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.