Turnover in retail trade, January 2017:
Retail trade increased in January
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-02-28 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 2.2 percent in January compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 0.4 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 3.7 percent. This information is working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 2.6 percent from January 2016 to January 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 0.8 percent, while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 4.0 percent.
Retail trade increased by 1.3 percent between December 2016 and January 2017. In the last three-month period (November– January), sales increased by 0.8 percent compared with the previous three-month period (August–October). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Comments by Andreas Svensson, HUI Research:
The preliminary sales figure for Swedish retail trade was approximately SEK 55.5 billion in January, which corresponds to an increase of 2.6 percent in current prices compared with the same month last year. January is often considered the poorest month of the year for households, an epithet shared by the retailers. January and February are the weakest months of the year measured in sales. January accounts for about 7.2 percent of full year sale,s which is 1.1 percentage points lower than the monthly average. This is possibly perceived as a small difference in terms of percent but corresponds to SEK 8.4 billion.
Consumables had a considerably weaker development than durables during the month. Sales grew by 0.8 percent, in which 1.8 percentage points can be explained by price appreciation. In fixed prices, (volume) sales decreased by 1.0 percent. The preliminary result is surprisingly weak and should be interpreted with caution. Durables, on the other hand, increased sales by 4.0 percent in January. Several subcategories contributed to the increase, but interior decorating and home hardware in particular were more substantial. However, fashion and sports had a tougher month, with challenging growth figures to beat from the previous year. In January last year, temperatures dropped in large parts of Sweden, which significantly increased sales of winter-related products.
HUI’s forecast for 2017 is 3 percent growth for total retail trade, which corresponds to a total sales figure of SEK 773 billion. The sales forecast for retail stores is barely 2 percent growth, while e-commerce is estimated to grow by 17 percent. E-commerce is growing rapidly, but the switch from offline to online is even more pronounced in the buying process. Currently, e-commerce constitutes only 8 percent of total retail sales, while the share of consumers who start their buying process online is many times greater.
In connection with the publication of Retail Trade Index in January, the new estimation of the fourth quarter 2016 has been finalised, which affects previously published growth figures for this time period. The survey has been supplemented with administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency, which entails that the estimation is based on data from all retail companies in the population. Consumables, interor decorating, fashion and shoes were the subcategories in which sales figures were most affected by the new estimation for the fourth quarter 2016.
| Jul% | Aug% | Sep% | Okt% | Nov% | Dec% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU |
2.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
Euro zone |
1.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
Sweden |
1.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
Current prices
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Dec.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
102.0 | 100.3 | 113.0 | 114.1 | 122.7 | 124.9 | 119.3 | 120.0 | 114.1 | 118.6 | 122.1 | 143.4 | 104.7 |
|
Monthly development %*
|
3.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
|
3-month development %**
|
5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
|
12-month development %**
|
5.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
104.8 | 98.1 | 112.4 | 114.9 | 124.0 | 126.1 | 122.2 | 120.3 | 113.1 | 120.5 | 121.9 | 142.3 | 107.1 |
Monthly development %* |
4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
3-month development %** |
4.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
12-month development %** |
4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
117.2 | 117.3 | 116.6 | 117.2 | 120.1 | 118.4 | 117.8 | 118.6 | 118.3 | 119.3 | 121.3 | 118.2 | 119.7 |
|
Development %***
|
0.5 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -2.6 | 1.3 |
|
Development for the latest 3 month %****
|
1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
|
Development for the latest 6 month %****
|
1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
1 The true change is with 95 % probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3 The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3 or 12 month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3 or 6 month period compared with the most recent previous 3 or 6 month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at www.scb.se/ha0101.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Next publishing will be
Data for February will be published on 28 March.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.