Turnover in retail trade, July 2017:
Retail trade increased in July
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-08-28 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 3.7 percent in July compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 2.2 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 4.9 percent. These figures are working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 3.5 percent from July 2016 to July 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 3.2 percent, while durables (such as goods sold in clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 3.7 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.9 percent between June 2017 and July 2017. In the last three-month period (May–July), sales increased by 0.9 percent compared with the previous three-month period (February–April). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Comments by HUI Research:
The preliminary sales figures for retail sales in July amounted to more than SEK 65 billion, which means increased sales to consumers equivalent to SEK 2.2 billion compared with July last year. Retail sales in current prices increased by 3.5 percent in July. The cool summer weather probably contributed to the fact that households chose shopping instead of the beach, even though the temperature rose towards the end of the month. The holiday period gives the households an opportunity to take care of their house or apartment. Preliminary statistics for July show that the home was in focus when households shopped during the summer. Home-related industries showed a significantly stronger growth rate than the other industries. So far this year, retail sales have grown by 2.1 percent, which is in line with HUI's full-year forecast of 2.5 percent.
Preliminary sales of consumables in July amounted to just over SEK 30 billion, corresponding to a sales increase of 3.2 percent in current prices. Corrected for the calendar effect, minus 1.4 percent (one Monday more and one Friday less in July this year), the growth rate was 4.6 percent. The preliminary growth rate is higher than expected and should therefore be viewed with caution. HUI estimates that the growth rate will be adjusted down when the final outcome is published. Preliminary sales of durables in July amounted to just over SEK 36 billion, corresponding to an increase in sales of 3.7 percent in current prices.
The definitive statistics for the first half of the year have now been completed. Industries linked to the home are at the top. Furniture and interior decorating has increased sales by 4 percent. The home hardware industry is also performing well, despite the fact that the Swedish Tax Agency's ROT payments have decreased during the year. The increase in demand is probably the result of the exceptionally strong new production rate. By contrast, fashion and sports have been on the sidelines during the first half of the year. However, these industries are exposed to excessive competitive pressure from foreign e-commerce companies, which means domestic statistics may be misleading. In the struggle for the food consumer, there is a clear winner and loser. Household purchasing power is good and has resulted in a strong increase in restaurant visits and ready meals, while food stores only grow due to price increases and a growing population. What could possibly change the market situation for the grocery stores is a downturn in the economy, which would cause households to cook more food at home.
| Jan% | Feb% | Mar% | Apr% | May% | Jun% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EU
|
1.5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
|
Euro zone
|
1.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
|
Sweden
|
2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
Time series
| Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
119.3 | 120.0 | 114.1 | 118.6 | 122.1 | 143.4 | 105.1 | 99.5 | 114.8 | 115.5 | 125.9 | 128.9 | 123.4 |
Monthly development %* |
-0.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
3-month development %** |
2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
12-month development %** |
4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
122.2 | 120.3 | 113.1 | 120.5 | 121.9 | 142.2 | 108.0 | 101.3 | 115.0 | 117.1 | 125.2 | 128.3 | 126.8 |
Monthly development %* |
1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
3-month development %** |
3.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
12-month development %** |
3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun | Jul^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
117.6 | 118.7 | 118.3 | 119.3 | 121.3 | 118.0 | 120.2 | 120.5 | 120.0 | 120.1 | 121.0 | 120.9 | 121.9 |
Development %*** |
-0.9 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -2.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.9 |
Development for the latest 3 month %**** |
1.5 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
Development for the latest 6 month %**** |
1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3 The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at Turnover in the service sector.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Enquiries about time series should be referred to Anton Hammarstedt at Statistics Sweden +46 10 479 42 28.
Next publishing will be
Data for August will be published on 28 September at 09:30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.