Turnover in retail trade, May 2017:
Retail trade increased in May
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-06-29 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 2.4 percent in May compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 1.5 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 3.0 percent. These figures are working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 4.1 percent from May 2016 to May 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 4.5 percent, while durables (such as clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 3.7 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.4 percent between April 2017 and May 2017. In the last three-month period (March–May), sales increased by 1.2 percent compared with the previous three-month period (December–February). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Revisions for April:
The figures for April 2017 have been revised in conjunction with the publication of May 2017. The initial preliminary development of the retail trade has been revised downwards from an increase of 4.5 percent compared with the same month of the previous year to an increase of 3.4 percent in working-day adjusted constant prices. The revision of April is somewhat larger than usual, due to incorrect calculations of certain figures in retail sale of pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles.These errors have been corrected in conjunction with this publication.
Changes are shown as percentages compared with the same period last year.
Comments by HUI Research:
The preliminary retail sales figure was about SEK 68 billion in May, corresponding to an increase of 4.1 percent in current prices compared with the same month last year. However, a large part of the increase in sales in May is explained by a favourable calendar effect, partly due to the fact that the monthly wage payments coincided with Ascension Day, which is a national holiday.
The preliminary sales growth for consumables was 4.5 percent in current prices. The industry probably got an extra boost from the summer heat that swept across Sweden in May that benefited the sales of, for instance, barbecue-related products. The major retail stores in the grocery trade, providing a wide range of food, grills and various accessories, became the winners in the struggle for the customers. Profitability in the industry was also likely pushed upward during the month as margins are generally higher on these products.
The preliminary sales growth for durables was 3.7 percent in current prices in May. Corrected for the calendar effect, the increase was 1.9 percent. Durables sales have thus developed considerably weaker in May this year than during the same period last year and the year before, when the industry grew by almost six percent each year. The lower growth rate in 2017 should be seen in the light of the fact that consumption is at a very high level and is entering a maturation phase. Amortisation requirements and concerns about worse times ahead have led to household savings being at a historically high level. Savings are a long-term consumption potential, but for short-term growth it is worrying that households are so cautious to use income for immediate consumption. In particular, the traditionally large segments of fashion and consumer electronics find it difficult to accelerate sales. For these reasons, in its latest economic report, HUI adjusted down the forecast for total retail sales to 2.5 percent growth in current prices for the full year 2017.
| nov% | dec% | jan% | feb% | mar% | apr% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EU
|
4.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
|
Euro zone
|
3.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
|
Sweden
|
4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr.^ | May^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
122.7 | 124.9 | 119.3 | 120.0 | 114.1 | 118.6 | 122.1 | 143.4 | 105.1 | 99.5 | 114.8 | 117.3 | 127.7 |
|
Monthly development %*
|
5.8 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
|
3-month development %**
|
4.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
|
12-month development %**
|
5.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr.^ | May^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
124.0 | 126.1 | 122.2 | 120.3 | 113.1 | 120.5 | 121.9 | 142.2 | 108.0 | 101.3 | 115.1 | 118.9 | 127.0 |
|
Monthly development %*
|
5.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
|
3-month development %**
|
3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
|
12-month development %**
|
4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
119.3 | 118.5 | 118.0 | 118.7 | 118.4 | 119.4 | 121.4 | 118.1 | 120.4 | 120.8 | 120.4 | 121.3 | 121.8 |
|
Development %***
|
1.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -2.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
|
Development for the latest 3 month %****
|
0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
|
Development for the latest 6 month %****
|
1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at www.scb.se/ha0101.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Jonas Arnberg at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 89.
Enquiries about time series should be referred to David Lööv at Statistics Sweden +46 10 479 47 71.
Next publishing will be
Data for June will be published on 28 July at 09:30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.