Turnover in retail trade, October 2017:
Retail trade increased in October
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-11-28 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 2.6 percent in October compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 1.1 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 3.7 percent. These figures are working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 3.3 percent from October 2016 to October 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 3.4 percent, while durables (such as goods sold in clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 3.2 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.1 percent between September 2017 and October 2017. In the last three-month period (August– October), sales increased by 0.7 percent compared with the previous three-month period (May–July). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Changes are shown as percentages compared with the same period last year.
Comments by HUI Research:
According to the preliminary outcome, retail sales grew by 3.3 percent in October. In total, retail sales amounted to just over SEK 65 billion during the month. The preliminary growth rate for consumables was 3.4 percent, which is higher than expected and should be interpreted with caution. HUI estimates that the growth rate will be adjusted down when the final outcome is published. The preliminary growth rate for durables was 3.2 percent in October.
The final outcome for the third quarter has now been presented. In line with what HUI predicted in previous reports, SCB revised the growth rate for consumables down by just over 1 percentage point for the quarter. As a result, the industry has had a volume growth around zero during the first 9 months of the year. The weak growth is explained by the increasing number of food purchases made in restaurants and the fact that non-food sales in grocery stores are weak. The good growth in the restaurant industry is explained by new consumption patterns as well as the favourable business cycle and low interest rates. Swedish consumers spend an average of 29 percent of their food budget in restaurants. Compared to 2009, this share has increased by close to 5 percentage points.
The final growth of durables in the third quarter was disappointing. SCB adjusted the growth rate down by almost 2 percentage points, which means that the increase eventually landed at 2.2 percent. Among the major industries, furniture, home hardware and opticians were strong during the quarter. The fashion trade was still tough with declining sales. Sports sales grew during the quarter but probably at the expense of margins when prices fell by 2.7 percent.
Overall, retail sales grew by 2.3 percent in the third quarter. According to the National Institute of Economic Research, household confidence is at a historically high level, which, according to previous experience, should lead to increased demand in retail. The sluggish growth of retail sales, however, reinforces the picture of households consuming in other sectors. HUI's sales forecast for the current year is 2.5 percent.
The preliminary monthly outcome may be adjusted when the final outcome is published four times a year. The retail index is supplemented by administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency, which means that the final estimate includes all retail companies. For some time there have been major differences between the preliminary and the definitive outcome in the retail sub-sectors. Until further notice HUI will only comment on the development of the sub-industries when the final outcome is published.
| Apr% | May% | Jun% | Jul% | Aug% | Sep% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EU
|
3.3 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
|
Euro zone
|
2.9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
|
Sweden
|
2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.2 |
Time series
| Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
118.6 | 122.1 | 143.4 | 105.1 | 99.5 | 114.8 | 115.7 | 126.0 | 128.7 | 122.2 | 122.4 | 116.9 | 122.4 |
Monthly development %* |
0.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
3-month development %** |
2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
12-month development %** |
4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
120.5 | 121.9 | 142.2 | 108 | 101.3 | 115 | 117.2 | 125.3 | 128.2 | 125.2 | 122 | 116.8 | 123.6 |
|
Monthly development %*
|
2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
|
3-month development %**
|
2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
|
12-month development %**
|
3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turnover 2010=100
|
119.2 | 121.2 | 118 | 120.1 | 120.5 | 119.9 | 120.1 | 120.8 | 120.6 | 121 | 121 | 122 | 122.1 |
|
Development %***
|
0.8 | 1.7 | -2.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
|
Development for the latest 3 month %****
|
0.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
|
Development for the latest 6 month %****
|
1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3 The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at:
Turnover in the service sector.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Enquiries about time series should be referred to Anton Hammarstedt at Statistics Sweden +46 10 479 42 28.
Next publishing will be
Data for November will be published on 22 December 09:30.
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.