Turnover in retail trade, September 2017:
Retail trade increased in September
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-10-27 9.30
The retail trade sales volume increased by 4.6 percent in September compared with the same month last year. Retail sales in consumables increased by 1.4 percent, while retail sales in durables increased by 7.1 percent. These figures are working-day adjusted.
The turnover in retail trade measured in current prices increased by 4.2 percent from September 2016 to September 2017. Retail trade in consumables (such as goods sold in department stores and specialised grocery stores) increased by 3.9 percent, while durables (such as goods sold in clothing stores, furniture stores, second-hand goods stores and mail order houses) increased by 4.5 percent.
Retail trade increased by 0.8 percent between August 2017 and September 2017. In the last three-month period (July–September), sales increased by 1.5 percent compared with the previous three-month period (Aprile–June). Both of these figures are expressed in constant prices, working-day and seasonally adjusted.
Changes are shown as percentages compared with the same period last year.
Comments by HUI Research:
According to the preliminary outcome for September, retail sales surprised positively with a growth rate of 4.2 percent. An extra Saturday and a Thursday less also favoured weekend shopping during the month. In total, retail sales amounted to more than SEK 63 billion in September. Preliminary sales of durables amounted to just over SEK 36 billion, corresponding to a sales growth of 4.5 percent in current prices. Weak comparative figures from the previous year are behind some of the increase. Preliminary sales of consumables amounted to just over SEK 27 billion in September, corresponding to a 3.9 percent increase in current prices. The preliminary growth rate is higher than expected and should therefore be viewed with caution. HUI estimates that the growth rate will be adjusted down when the final outcome is published.
Digitization in retail has created a whole new transparency for the consumer in the buying process, which has pushed both prices and many of the retailers' margins down. This is also evident in the statistics. So far this year, no major sub-sector in durables has managed to raise prices against consumers at the level of CPI, which at the moment is 2.1 percent. Instead, several major sub-sectors show a negative price trend. In fashion and sports the overall price picture has fallen by 0.5 percent. The same weak price trend also applies for pharmacies, electronics, home furnishings and toys. This is extra worrying given the fact that today's households are very competitive. When the economy turns for the worse, household demand for low prices will be further strengthened and the possibility of compensating reduced sales with higher prices is likely to be non-existent.
For consumables, price pressure has not yet become apparent as pricing is still local and the industry has one of the lowest digitization rates in the retail market. Just under 2 percent of sales are online. Insights from the UK, which has come significantly longer with food online, show that food prices may be put under pressure. In the UK, food prices have fallen by almost 4 percent over the past five years, while the Swedish food prices have increased by 6 percent. The difference is particularly interesting given the fact that the pound has fallen sharply in recent years, which should have increased the cost of imported food and, in the long run, domestic food prices.
What can retailers do? The question is complex, but in order to compensate for a tougher price setting for generic products, retailers must sell larger volumes and create greater influence over suppliers. Already today, 13 retailers account for 50 percent of total retail sales. This concentration will be strengthened and create further alignment in the Swedish retail sector. The development also creates space for niche and unique merchants who offer something that customers are prepared to pay premium for.
The preliminary monthly outcome may be adjusted when the final outcome is published four times a year. The retail index is supplemented by administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency, which means that the final estimate includes all retail companies. For some time there have been major differences between the preliminary and the definitive outcome in the retail sub-sectors. Until further notice HUI will only comment on the development of the sub-industries when the final outcome is published.
| Current prices | Working day adjusted, constant prices | Price change | Working day effect[3] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September% | 95% Conf.Int.[1] | 2017%[2] | September% | 2017%[2] | September% | September% | |
|
Retail sales for consumables
|
3.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 0 | |
|
Retail sales for durables
|
4.5 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 4.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 | |
|
Total retail trade
|
4.2 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.3 | -0.7 | |
| Mar% | Apr% | May% | Jun% | Jul% | Aug% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EU
|
3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
|
Euro zone
|
3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
|
Sweden
|
2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
Time series
| Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul.^ | Aug.^ | Sep.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
114.1 | 118.6 | 122.1 | 143.4 | 105.1 | 99.5 | 114.8 | 115.7 | 126.0 | 128.7 | 123.5 | 123.9 | 118.9 |
Monthly development %* |
1.9 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
3-month development %** |
2.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
12-month development %** |
4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul.^ | Aug.^ | Sep.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
113.2 | 120.4 | 121.9 | 142.2 | 108.0 | 101.3 | 115.1 | 117.2 | 125.3 | 128.2 | 127.0 | 123.7 | 118.4 |
Monthly development %* |
1.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 4.6 |
3-month development %** |
2.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
12-month development %** |
3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul.^ | Aug.^ | Sep.^ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover 2010=100 |
118.0 | 119.3 | 121.3 | 118.0 | 120.2 | 120.5 | 120.0 | 120.2 | 121.1 | 120.9 | 122.2 | 122.3 | 123.3 |
Development %*** |
-0.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 | -2.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Development for the latest 3 month %**** |
-0.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
Development for the latest 6 month %**** |
1.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
1 The true change is with 95 percent probability covered by the estimated interval.
2 The period of January up to and including the given month compared with the same period last year.
3 The working day effect shows basic conditions for sales in the period of the present year compared with last year.
A working day effect of 1.0 percent negatively affects the sales development by 1.0 percentage points.
^ The given month's results are preliminary.
* Comparison with same month last year.
** Comparison between the latest 3- or 12-month period and the same period of last year.
*** Comparison with last month (only for seasonally adjusted series).
**** Latest 3- or 6-month period compared with the most recent previous 3- or 6-month period (seasonally adjusted series).
Definitions and explanations
Total retail trade refers to NACE 47 excluding 47.3.
Trade in consumables here refers to NACE 47.11 and 47.2.
Durables here refer to NACE 47.19 and 47.4-47.7.
All time series use the year prior to the year of the survey as their base year. Contact HUI Research for more detailed reports of the retail trade activities.
Revisions
When the Retail Trade Index is published for a new month, the index for previous months is also revised if new information has been added. From April 2015, a new method to calculate definitive statistics was introduced. The new method entails primarily that administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency is used quarterly to increase the number of companies that are investigated and reduce the burden of the companies to contribute data. This means that definitive quarterly statistics are based on a calculation for all the companies in the population. The reason to use administrative data every quarter is to improve the quality of the retail trade index. Usually the material is revised between two and four months backwards depending on where in the quarter the reference month is. In connection with the publication of the first and second month in a quarter the entire previous quarter is revised. The series, corrected for calendar and seasonal effects and trend estimates is always revised from January 1991 and forward. Information regarding major revisions will be published at:
Turnover in the service sector.
More information:
Enquiries about the Retail Trade Index should be referred to Andreas Svensson at HUI Research +46 8 762 72 85.
Enquiries about time series should be referred to Anton Hammarstedt at Statistics Sweden +46 10 479 42 28.
Next publishing will be
Data for October will be published on 28 November at 09:30
Statistical Database
More information is available in the Statistical Database
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.