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  • Lower fertility leads to a decreased number of school children in the future

    The number of births has decreased steadily in recent years, and the decrease is estimated to continue in the coming years. This means that there will be fewer school children aged 6–15 years in the future. According to a new population projection from Statistics Sweden there will be fewer children during the whole projection period compared to today.

  • 400 000 more people in Sweden in 2030

    The size of different birth cohorts affects the future population. In the coming years the 1960s birth cohorts approach the retirement age, and the 1940s birth cohorts will pass the age of 80. Fewer children were born in 2022, and this will affect both childcare and schooling in the future.

  • More older people in all counties and municipalities by 2040

    Statistics Sweden annually publishes a population projection for Sweden’s counties and municipalities since 2020. The aim is to make the projection available to the public. The sum of the estimated population from the regional population projection is consistent with that from the national projection. The calculations are based on the assumption that the observed development patterns of the population will continue in the future. The calculations do not take into account municipalities’ planned housing construction, company establishment or other future goals and conditions. A projection cannot foretell the exactness of the future. Projections for the counties and municipalities that consider different scenarios are also possible.

  • The invasion of Ukraine adds greater uncertainty to the population forecast

    The population is estimated to increase by almost 900,000 inhabitants by the year 2040 and stand at 11.4 million persons. Future population trends contain a degree of uncertainty however, especially related to the size of flows of asylum seekers from Ukraine. Applying different scenarios for this immigration, the population of Sweden is estimated between 11.4 and 12.1 million by 2040.

  • Population expected to increase most in large counties

    The population of Sweden is projected to be just over 11 million by 2040, which is an increase of 900 000 people, 9 percent, compared with 2020. The largest population growth by 2040 is expected in Stockholm County, while the counties of Västernorrland and Norrbotten are expected to decrease the most, both in the number of people and in percentage terms.