To main content

Political Party Preference Survey in November 2018 – Election Today

Political Party Preference Survey, November 2018

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2018-12-04 9.30

The Political Party Preference Survey presents election results if a parliamentary election were held in November 2018, and changes since the 2018 parliamentary election. The proportion of undecided voters was 9 percent.

In an election in November 2018, votes would be cast as follows.

  • Social Democrats: 30.5 ± 0.8 percent
  • Moderate Party: 19.2 ± 0.7 percent
  • Sweden Democrats: 18.3 ± 0.6 percent
  • Centre Party: 8.6 ± 0.4 percent
  • Left Party: 8.4 ± 0.5 percent
  • Christian Democrats: 5.4 ± 0.3 percent
  • Liberal Party: 4.3 ± 0.4 percent
  • Green Party: 4.0 ± 0.3 percent
  • Other parties: 1.2 ± 0.3 percent

Together, the red/green parties (the Social Democrats, the Left Party and the Green Party) would receive 42.9 ± 0.8 percent of the votes.

Together, the Alliance parties (the Moderate Party, the Centre Party, the Christian Democrats and the Liberal Party) would receive 37.5 ± 0.8 percent of the votes.

The proportion of those in the electorate who were undecided was about 9 percent in November 2018.

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. November 2018, and the difference compared with the 2018 parliamentary election

Illustration: Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. November 2018, and the difference compared with the 2018 parliamentary election

The change refers to a comparison with the 2018 parliamentary election in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

The table below shows party estimates in November 2018 and changes compared with the 2018 parliamentary election. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. November 2018

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few days?

 Estimate November 2018
PartyPercentMargin
of error
Election
2018
Change
since
election
2018
C 8.6 ±0.4 8.6 0.0
L 4.3 ±0.4 5.5 ‑1.2*
M 19.2 ±0.7 19.8 ‑0.6
KD 5.4 ±0.3 6.3 ‑0.9*
S 30.5 ±0.8 28.3 2.2*
V 8.4 ±0.5 8.0 0.4
MP 4.0 ±0.3 4.4 ‑0.4*
SD 18.3 ±0.6 17.5 0.8*
other 1.2 ±0.3 1.5 ‑0.3*

* The change is statistically significant.

Results of the surveys carried out during the current electoral period are available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database.

The parties in November 2018

Changes in all parties compared with the parliamentary election in September 2018 are described below. The flow of voters between the parties is also described below. Only statistically significant changes in the flow of voters are presented.

Centre Party

If an election were held in November 2018, the Centre Party would receive 8.6 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

No statistically significant net flows were noted for the Centre Party compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 4.3 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2018. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, statistically significant net losses were noted of about 0.5 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.2 percent to the Social Democrats.

Moderate Party

If an election were held in November 2018, the Moderate Party would receive 19.2 ± 0.7 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.5 percent from the Liberal Party is noted for the Moderate Party. At the same time, the Moderate Party had a statistically significant net loss of about 1.0 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 5.4 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in November 2018. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of 0.3 percent was noted to the Sweden Democrats.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 30.5 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in November 2018. This is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, statistically significant gains of about 0.8 percent from the Left Party and about 0.2 percent from the Liberal Party were noted.

Left Party

If an election were held in November 2018, the Left Party would receive 8.4 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Left Party had statistically significant net gains of about 0.3 percent from the Green Party and about 0.2 percent from “other parties”. At the same time, the Left Party had a statistically significant net loss of about 0.8 percent to the Social Democrats.

Green Party

If an election were held in November 2018, the Green Party would receive 4.0 ± 0.3 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Green Party had a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Left Party.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 18.3 ± 0.6 percent of the votes in an election in November 2018. This is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, statistically significant net gains of about 1.0 percent from the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent from the Christian Democrats were noted.

Other parties

The “other parties” group would receive 1.2 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in November 2018, which is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent to the Left Party was noted.

Figure 1 Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election 2018 to November 2018. Percent of the electorate*

Illustration: Net flows from May 2018 to November 2018

* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election to November 2018 among the different parties. The figures indicate statistically significant net losses and net gains in percent. The flows are based on the answers of all the respondents in the survey who stated which party they voted for in the 2018 parliamentary election and which party they would vote for in an election in November 2018. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with the 2018 election, because there are also flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table publication published on 7 December.)

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women (W) and men (M). November 2018

Illustration: Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women (W) and men (M). November 2018

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. November 2018
PartyWomenMenTotal
 PercentMargin
of error
PercentMargin
of error
PercentMargin
of error
C 9.2 ±0.7 8.1 ±0.8 8.6 ±0.4
L 4.4 ±0.6 4.1 ±0.6 4.3 ±0.4
M 18.8 ±1.1 19.7 ±1.2 19.2 ±0.7
KD 5.5 ±0.5 5.3 ±0.5 5.4 ±0.3
S 33.3 ±1.3 27.8 ±1.3 30.5 ±0.8
V 8.3 ±0.8 8.5 ±0.9 8.4 ±0.5
MP 4.6 ±0.6 3.4 ±0.5 4.0 ±0.3
SD 14.8 ±1.1 21.8 ±1.2 18.3 ±0.6
others 1.0 ±0.4 1.4 ±0.4 1.2 ±0.3

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, by region. November 2018. Percent
RegionCLMKDSVMPSDOther
 %±%±%±%±%±%±%±%±%±
Sydsverige 6.8 ±0.8 4.3 ±0.7 22.7 ±2.1 4.6 ±0.9 28.4 ±2.2 5.7 ±0.6 4.5 ±0.8 22.2 ±1.5 0.8 ±0.4
Småland med öarna 10.1 ±1.9 2.4 ±0.6 17.3 ±2.3 8.1 ±0.9 30.9 ±3.1 5.9 ±1.3 2.1 ±0.7 21.6 ±2.6 1.6 ±1.3
Västsverige 9.4 ±1.3 4.8 ±0.4 17.3 ±1.2 5.4 ±0.5 28.0 ±1.6 9.5 ±1.3 4.8 ±0.9 20.0 ±1.4 0.9 ±0.4
Stockholm County, excluding Stockholm municipality 9.0 ±1.3 6.4 ±2.0 24.4 ±2.2 6.0 ±0.8 28.7 ±2.4 5.4 ±0.8 4.1 ±0.6 15.1 ±1.2 0.9 ±1.1
Stockholm municipality 9.1 ±1.2 4.3 ±0.9 24.6 ±3.1 4.6 ±1.0 24.7 ±2.7 13.9 ±2.5 5.6 ±0.8 11.8 ±2.5 1.5 ±0.6
Östra Mellansverige 7.3 ±0.6 4.8 ±1.0 17.8 ±1.4 6.0 ±0.6 34.6 ±1.8 6.1 ±1.1 3.9 ±0.5 17.9 ±1.4 1.5 ±0.8
Norra Mellansverige 10.1 ±1.7 2.2 ±0.7 13.0 ±1.2 4.8 ±1.2 31.9 ±2.0 14.2 ±2.4 1.5 ±1.0 21.3 ±2.2 1.1 ±0.3
Mellersta och övre Norrland 8.8 ±1.2 2.4 ±0.8 15.5 ±1.9 3.6 ±0.6 39.3 ±2.2 9.7 ±1.6 3.8 ±1.1 15.1 ±1.6 1.9 ±1.0
Total 8.6 ±0.4 4.3 ±0.4 19.2 ±0.7 5.4 ±0.3 30.5 ±0.8 8.4 ±0.5 4.0 ±0.3 18.3 ±0.6 1.2 ±0.3

Description of the regions

Sydsverige: Blekinge County and Skåne County
Småland med öarna: Jönköping County, Kronoberg County, Kalmar County and Gotland County
Västsverige: Halland County and Västra Götaland County
Östra Mellansverige: Uppsala County, Södermanland County, Östergötland County, Örebro County and Västmanland County
Norra Mellansverige: Värmland County, Dalarna County and Gävleborg County
Mellersta och övre Norrland: Västernorrland County, Jämtland County, Västerbotten County and Norrbotten County

A table of regional survey results of the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database.

Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in November 2018 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 8 966 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 20 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.3 percent were unable to be interviewed and 24.1 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 47.3 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 721, which corresponds to 52.7 percent. In addition, sometimes, some persons do not want to answer certain questions. The data was collected during the period from 29 October to 27 November. A more detailed presentation of non-response will be made available in connection with the publication on 7 December.

The results are presented in point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Next publishing will be

The Political Party Preference Survey and EU and euro preferences in November 2018, in total and in different demographic groups, will be published on 7 December 2018 at 09:30.

Statistics Sweden has opted to split up publication in order to publish “Election today estimate” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to make it clear that it is concerns two different measurements. “Election today estimate” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?” while the political party preference is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.

The publication on 7 December also contains information about EU and euro preferences, in total and in different demographic groups.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

Statistical agency and producer

Statistics Sweden, Democracy Statistics

Address
Box 24 300
104 51 Stockholm

E-mail
psu@scb.se

Enquiries

Regina Vilkénas

Telephone
+46 10 479 41 18
E-mail
regina.vilkenas@scb.se

Johan Eklund

Telephone
+46 10 479 45 38
E-mail
johan.eklund@scb.se