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Political Party Preference Survey in November 2018 – Political party preferences

Political party preferences in November 2018

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2018-12-07 9.30

The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to a specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.

On 4 December, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results if there was to be an election in November 2018. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.

The difference between the measurements is:

  • Political Party Preference does not highlight any specific level of politics, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The results are weighted by region, sex, age, level of education and Swedish/foreign born.
  • The “Election Today” estimate refers to the results of an election in November. These results are weighted by how the person voted in the previous parliamentary election and whether or not they would vote.

Since the Election Today estimate and the Political Party Preference estimate are weighted differently, caution should be applied when making comparisons.
The distribution of political party preferences among women and men in the electorate are shown below.

Estimates of party preferences, women and men. November 2018
Political Party Preference Survey in November 2018 - Political Party Preferences

Estimates of party preferences, women and men, incl. margin of error. November 2018

Party

Women

Men

Total

  Percent Margin of error Percent Margin of error Percent Margin of error
C
11.8 ±1.4 7.4 ±1.1 9.6 ±0.9
L
6.0 ±1.0 5.1 ±0.9 5.6 ±0.7
M
16.8 ±1.6 23.8 ±1.8 20.3 ±1.2
KD
5.8 ±1.0 4.7 ±0.9 5.2 ±0.7
S
34.3 ±2.0 27.7 ±1.9 31.0 ±1.4
V
10.6 ±1.3 7.7 ±1.1 9.1 ±0.9
MP
5.8 ±1.0 3.4 ±0.8 4.6 ±0.6
SD
7.5 ±1.2 18.4 ±1.7 13.0 ±1.0
Other
1.4 ±0.5 1.8 ±0.6 1.6 ±0.4

The table appendix of the Party Preference Survey November 2018 publication presents political party preference among various groups in the population of eligible voters. The sex, age, country of birth and level of education of the supporters of each political party are examined.

Party preferences in November 2018

Centre Party

In November 2018, 9.6 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Centre Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2018.

Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. Support is also greater among those aged 49 years and younger, compared with those aged 50 years and older. The Centre Party’s share of supporters is larger among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. There is more support for the Centre Party among persons with post-secondary education than among those with compulsory and upper secondary education.

Liberal Party

In November 2018, 5.6 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Liberal Party the most. This is a statistically significant increase compared with May 2018.

There are no significant differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Liberal Party in November 2018. Furthermore, there are no apparent differences between different age groups. Support is greater among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, the share of supporters is largest among those with post-secondary education.

Moderate Party

In November 2018, 20.3 ± 1.2 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Moderate Party the most. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with May 2018.

Support for the Moderate Party is greater among men than among women. With regard to age groups, there are no significant differences. There is no significant difference in support between Swedish born and foreign born persons. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in support in terms of level of education.

Christian Democrats

In November 2018, 5.2 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Christian Democrats the most. This is a statistically significant increase compared with May 2018.

There are no differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in November 2018. There is less support among those aged 29 years and younger compared with those aged 50 years and older. There are no significant differences in support by country of birth (Swedish born and foreign born), or by level of education.

Social Democrats

In November 2018, 31.0 ± 1.4 percent of the electorate stated that they prefer the Social Democrats the most. This is a statistically significant increase compared with May 2018.

Support for the Social Democrats is greater among women than among men. Older people to a greater extent support the Social Democrats, compared with younger people. There is more than twice as much support among those aged 65 years and older, compared with those aged 18 to 29 years. The Social Democrats have greater support among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. With regard to the level of education, the Social Democrats have greater support among those with compulsory and upper secondary level education than among those with post-secondary education.

Left Party

In November 2018, 9.1 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters stated that they support the Left Party. This is a statistically significant increase compared with May 2018.

Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. With regard to age, the share of those who support the Left Party is greater among those 49 years and younger, and there is less support among those aged 50 years and older. There is no significant difference between Swedish born and foreign born persons with regard to support for the Left Party. With regard to the level of education, there is more support for the Left Party among those with post-secondary education, compared with those with compulsory education or secondary education.

Green Party

In November 2018, 4.6 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters stated that they support the Green Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2018.

The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. With regard to age, the share of those who support the Green Party is greater among those aged 49 years and younger, compared with persons aged 65 and older. There is no significant difference in support between Swedish born and foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, the Green Party has most support among those with at least post-secondary education.

Sweden Democrats

In November 2018, 13.0 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters stated that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with May 2018.

The Sweden Democrats have greater support, more than twice as much, among men than among women. With regard to age groups, it is not possible to discern any clear patterns. The Sweden Democrats have greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, support for the Sweden Democrats is significantly greater among those with compulsory and upper secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.

EU and euro preferences

If a referendum on the euro was held in November 2018, 18.6 ± 1.1 percent would vote “yes” to the euro, and 68.0 ± 1.4 percent would vote “no”. 13.4 ± 1.0 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. Compared with May 2018, the proportion of those who stated that they would vote “yes” has decreased, and the proportion of those who would vote “no” has increased. Both changes are statistically significant.

The proportion of those who stated that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 58.6 ± 1.4 percent in November 2018. The proportion of those who are opposed to EU membership was 15.6 ± 1.1 percent, and the proportion of those who did not have an opinion was 25.8 ± 1.3 percent.

Compared with May 2018, the proportion of those who stated that they are in favour of EU membership has increased, while the proportion of those who stated that they are opposed to EU membership has decreased. The share of persons who stated that they do not have an opinion has also decreased. These changes are statistically significant.

Estimate of EU and euro preferences, November 2018. Percent
Political Party Preference Survey in November 2018 - Political Party Preferences

The following questions were asked:

  1. If a referendum was held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?
  2. Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?

For more information on EU and euro preferences, please refer to Sweden’s Statistical Database (see link below).

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in November 2018 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 8 966 persons eligible to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these persons are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 20 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.3 percent were unable to participate and 24.1 percent did not want to be participate. The total non-response rate was 47.3 percent. There were 4 721 respondents in total, which corresponds to 52.7 percent. Occasionally, persons do not want to answer certain questions. The data was collected during the period from 29 October to 27 November. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey November 2018”.

The results are presented in in the form of point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent confidence interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Publication

The Party Preference Survey in November 2018

In the table appendix of the publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and union membership.

Next publishing will be

The estimate of May 2019 parliamentary election results will be published on 4 June 2019.

Political party preferences and EU/euro preferences in May 2019 will be published on 11 June 2019 at 09.30.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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