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Political Party Preference Survey in May 2019 – Election Today

Political Party Preference Survey, May 2019

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2019-06-04 9.30

The Political Party Preference Survey presents election results if a parliamentary election were held in May 2019, and changes since November 2018 and since the 2018 parliamentary election.

In an election in May 2019, votes would be cast as follows.

  • Social Democrats: 27.6 ± 0.8 percent
  • Sweden Democrats: 17.1 ± 0.8 percent
  • Moderate Party: 16.0 ± 0.8 percent
  • Christian Democrats: 13.0 ± 0.7 percent
  • Left Party: 8.7 ± 0.6 percent
  • Centre Party: 6.9 ± 0.4 percent
  • Green Party: 5.6 ± 0.5 percent
  • Liberal Party: 3.7 ± 0.3 percent
  • Other parties: 1.3 ± 0.2 percent

In May 2019, about 11 percent of the electorate was uncertain.

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2019, and the difference compared with the 2018 parliamentary election

Illustration: Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2019, and the difference compared with the 2018 parliamentary election

The change refers to a comparison with the 2018 parliamentary election in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

The table below presents an estimate of the parties in May 2019, November 2018, and the latest election results. The table also shows changes from the November 2018 survey results and the 2018 parliamentary election. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2019

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few days? 

 Estimate May 2019Estimate November 2018   
PartyPercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of errorChange
since November 2018
Election 2018Change since election 2018
C 6.9 ±0.4 8.6 ±0.4 ‑1.7* 8.6 ‑1.7*
L 3.7 ±0.3 4.3 ±0.4 ‑0.6* 5.5 ‑1.8*
M 16.0 ±0.8 19.2 ±0.7 ‑3.2* 19.8 ‑3.8*
KD 13.0 ±0.7 5.4 ±0.3 7.6* 6.3 6.7*
S 27.6 ±0.8 30.5 ±0.8 ‑2.9* 28.3 ‑0.7
V 8.7 ±0.6 8.4 ±0.5 0.3 8.0 0.7*
MP 5.6 ±0.5 4.0 ±0.3 1.6* 4.4 1.2*
SD 17.1 ±0.8 18.3 ±0.6 ‑1.2* 17.5 ‑0.4
other 1.3 ±0.2 1.2 ±0.3 0.1 1.5 ‑0.2*

 

* The change is statistically significant.

Results from the current and the previous electoral period are available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database.

The political parties in May 2019

Changes for all political parties compared with the November 2018 survey and the 2018 parliamentary election are described below. The flow of voters between the parties is also described below. Only statistically significant changes in the flow of voters are presented.

Centre Party

If an election were held in May 2019, the Centre Party would receive 6.9 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with November 2018 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2018, the Centre Party had statistically significant net losses of about 0.4 percent to the Christian Democrats and about 0.3 percent to the Green Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.3 percent from the Liberal Party was noted. At the same time, the Centre Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.6 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 3.7 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in May 2019. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with November 2018 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2018, the Liberal Party noted statistically significant net losses of about 0.4 percent to the “do not know” group and about 0.2 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, statistically significant net losses were noted of about 0.7 percent to the Christian Democrats, about 0.4 percent to the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent to the Centre Party.

Moderate Party

If an election were held in May 2019, the Moderate Party would receive 16.0 ± 0.8 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with November 2018 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with November 2018, the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 3.3 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party. At the same time, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 4.2 percent to the Christian Democrats and about 0.4 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 13.0 ± 0.7 percent of the votes in an election in May 2019. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2018 and the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2018, the Christian Democrats had statistically significant net gains of about 3.3 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.9 percent from the Sweden Democrats, about 0.9 percent from the “do not know” group, about 0.4 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.2 percent from the Liberal Party, and about 0.2 percent from the Social Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 4.2 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.3 percent from the Sweden Democrats, about 0.7 percent from the Liberal Party, and about 0.6 percent from the Centre Party.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 27.6 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in May 2019. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2018, but it is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2018, the Social Democrats have statistically significant net losses of about 1.8 percent to the “do not know” group, about 1.1 percent to the Left Party, and about 0.2 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent to the Left Party is noted.

Left Party

If an election were held in May 2019, the Left Party would receive 8.7 ± 0.6 percent of the votes. Compared with November 2018, this is not a statistically significant change, while in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election, it is a statistically significant increase.

In relation to November 2018, the Left Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 1.1 percent from the Social Democrats.

In relation to the 2018 parliamentary election, the Left Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.5 percent from the Social Democrats.

Green Party

If an election were held in May 2019, the Green Party would receive 5.6 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2018 and the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2018, the Green Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.3 percent from the Centre Party.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 17.1 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in May 2019. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2018, but it is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to November 2018, the Sweden Democrats had statistically significant net losses of about 1.9 percent to the Christian Democrats and about 0.9 percent to the “do not know” group.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.4 percent from the Moderate Party is noted. At the same time, the Sweden Democrats had a statistically significant net loss of about 1.3 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Other parties

The group “Other parties” would receive 1.3 ± 0.2 percent of the votes in an election in May 2019. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2018, while it is a statistically significant decrease in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

Figure 1 Net flows from November 2018 to May 2019. Percent of the electorate *

Illustration: Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election 2018 to May 2019. Percent of the electorate*

* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from November 2018 to May 2019 for the different parties. The figures indicate significant net gains and net losses in percent of the electorate. The flows are based on all those who submitted party answers or answered “do not know” when asked which party they would vote for in an election in each survey round. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with November 2018, because only significant flows are presented. (Unweighted information is available in table 22 in the table publication published on 11 June.)

Figure 2 Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2019. Percent of the electorate*

Illustration: Figure 2 Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2019. Percent of the electorate

* Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows in the electorate from the 2018 parliamentary election to May 2019 for the different parties. The figures indicate significant net gains and net losses in percent of the electorate. The flows are based on the answers of all the respondents in the survey who stated which party they voted for in the 2018 parliamentary election and which party they would vote for in an election in May 2019. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with the 2018 election, because there are also flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table publication published on 11 June.)

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women (W) and men (M). May 2019

Illustration: Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. May 2019

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. May 2019

PartyWomenMenTotal
 PercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of error
C 7.6 ±0.7 6.3 ±0.6 6.9 ±0.4
L 3.8 ±0.5 3.7 ±0.6 3.7 ±0.3
M 14.9 ±1.1 17.0 ±1.3 16.0 ±0.8
KD 12.7 ±1.1 13.4 ±1.1 13.0 ±0.7
S 30.5 ±1.4 24.7 ±1.3 27.6 ±0.8
V 9.9 ±0.9 7.6 ±0.9 8.7 ±0.6
MP 6.2 ±0.7 5.1 ±0.8 5.6 ±0.5
SD 13.4 ±1.1 20.8 ±1.4 17.1 ±0.8
others 1.0 ±0.3 1.5 ±0.4 1.3 ±0.2

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, by region. May 2019. Percent
RegionCLMKDSVMPSDÖvr
 %±%±%±%±%±%±%±%±%±
Sydsverige 5,6 ±0,9 3,1 ±0,7 16,7 ±1,4 12,2 ±2,0 26,8 ±2,3 6,4 ±0,8 5,7 ±1,0 22,8 ±2,2 0,7 ±0,3
Småland med öarna 7,2 ±1,1 2,4 ±0,8 13,8 ±2,7 17,2 ±2,0 29,6 ±2,9 7,6 ±1,2 4,0 ±0,9 17,7 ±2,1 0,5 ±0,3
Västsverige 6,1 ±0,8 4,8 ±1,0 14,8 ±1,6 14,9 ±1,8 26,3 ±1,9 9,2 ±1,2 5,5 ±0,9 16,8 ±1,7 1,7 ±0,5
Stockholms län exkl. Stockholms kommun 7,3 ±1,0 4,4 ±0,9 18,3 ±2,4 14,7 ±2,3 23,4 ±2,5 9,2 ±2,3 7,9 ±2,3 13,7 ±1,2 1,2 ±0,6
Stockholms kommun 7,9 ±1,2 5,6 ±1,2 21,0 ±3,1 12,3 ±3,1 20,1 ±1,6 12,7 ±2,5 7,5 ±0,9 11,4 ±3,2 1,5 ±0,9
Östra Mellansverige 6,1 ±0,9 3,4 ±0,6 17,9 ±2,5 10,7 ±1,2 30,9 ±2,4 7,6 ±1,7 4,1 ±0,6 18,0 ±2,3 1,3 ±0,4
Norra Mellansverige 8,6 ±1,4 2,3 ±0,7 10,9 ±1,8 12,9 ±2,2 32,6 ±2,6 6,6 ±0,6 4,4 ±1,5 20,4 ±2,3 1,2 ±1,2
Mellersta och övre Norrland 8,9 ±1,4 2,6 ±1,0 12,1 ±2,3 9,4 ±1,9 32,9 ±2,0 11,9 ±1,7 6,0 ±1,8 14,6 ±2,0 1,7 ±0,6
Totalt 6,9 ±0,4 3,7 ±0,3 16,0 ±0,8 13,0 ±0,7 27,6 ±0,8 8,7 ±0,6 5,6 ±0,5 17,1 ±0,8 1,3 ±0,2

Description of the regions

Sydsverige: Blekinge County and Skåne County
Småland med öarna: Jönköping County, Kronoberg County, Kalmar County and Gotland County
Västsverige: Halland County and Västra Götaland County
Östra Mellansverige: Uppsala County, Södermanland County, Östergötland County, Örebro County and Västmanland County
Norra Mellansverige: Värmland County, Dalarna County and Gävleborg County
Mellersta och övre Norrland: Västernorrland County, Jämtland County, Västerbotten County and Norrbotten County

A table of regional survey results of the current and the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database.

Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database

Upcoming publication

On 11 June, information about political party preferences in May 2019 will be published, in total and in different demographic groups. Statistics Sweden has opted to split up publication in order to publish “Election today estimate” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to make it clear that it is concerns two different measurements. “Election today estimate” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?” while the political party preference is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.
The publication on 11 June also contains information about EU and euro preferences, in total and in different demographic groups.

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in May 2019 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 092 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these persons are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 25.3 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.7 percent were unable to participate and 21.5 percent did not want to participate. The total non-response rate was 50.4 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 506, which corresponds to 49.6 percent. Occasionally, persons do not want to answer certain questions. A more detailed presentation of non-response will be made available in connection with the 11 June publication.

The data was collected during the period from 29 April to 28 May. The political campaigns for the European Parliament elections were taking place during the data collection period. However, the respondents were clearly informed that the question about elections referred to a hypothetical parliamentary election. The majority of the answers were collected during the first half of the data collection period.

The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Next publishing will be

The Political Party Preference Survey and EU and euro preferences in May 2019, in total and in different demographic groups, will be published on 11 June 2019 at 09.30.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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