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Party Preference Survey in November 2019 - Election today

Political Party Preference Survey, November 2019

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2019-12-03 9.30

The Political Party Preference Survey presents election results if a parliamentary election were held in November 2019, as well as changes since May 2019 and since the 2018 parliamentary election.

In an election in November 2019, votes would be cast as follows.

Social Democrats: 26.3 ± 0.8 percent
Sweden Democrats:
22.6 ± 0.7 percent
Moderate Party: 18.3 ± 0.8 percent
Left Party: 8.1 ± 0.4 percent
Centre Party: 7.3 ± 0.4 percent
Christian Democrats: 6.6 ± 0.4 percent
Green Party: 5.1 ± 0.5 percent
Liberal Party: 4.1 ± 0.4 percent
Other parties: 1.6 ± 0.3 percent

The proportion of those in the electorate who were undecided was about 15 percent in November 2019.

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. November 2019, and the difference compared with the 2018 parliamentary election

Diagram

The change refers to a comparison with the 2018 parliamentary election in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

The table below presents estimates of the parties in November 2019, in May 2019, and in the latest election results. The table also shows changes from the May 2019 survey results and the 2018 parliamentary election. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”. November 2019

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few days?

 Estimate
November
2019
Estimate
May
2019
  
PartyPercentMargin
of error
PercentMargin
of error
Change
since
May
2019
Election
2018
Change
since
election
2018
C 7.3 ±0.4 6.9 ±0.4 0.4 8.6 ‑1.3*
L 4.1 ±0.4 3.7 ±0.3 0.4 5.5 ‑1.4*
M 18.3 ±0.8 16.0 ±0.8 2.3* 19.8 ‑1.5*
KD 6.6 ±0.4 13.0 ±0.7 ‑6.4* 6.3 0.3
S 26.3 ±0.8 27.6 ±0.8 ‑1.3* 28.3 ‑2.0*
V 8.1 ±0.4 8.7 ±0.6 ‑0.6* 8.0 0.1
MP 5.1 ±0.5 5.6 ±0.5 ‑0.5* 4.4 0.7*
SD 22.6 ±0.7 17.1 ±0.8 5.5* 17.5 5.1*
other 1.6 ±0.3 1.3 ±0.2 0.3 1.5 0.1

* The change is statistically significant.

A table of the survey results from the current and the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database. Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database.

The parties in November 2019

Changes in all political parties compared with the May 2019 survey and the September 2018 parliamentary election are described below. The flow of voters between the parties is also described below in percent of the electorate. Only statistically significant changes in the flow of voters are presented.

Centre Party

If an election were held in November 2019, the Centre Party would receive 7.3 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. Compared with May 2019, this is not a statistically significant change, while compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, it is a statistically significant decrease.

Compared with May 2019, the Centre Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.2 percent of the electorate from the Christian Democrats. At the same time, the Centre Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent to the “do not know” group and about 0.4 percent to the Moderate Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party was noted. At the same time, the Centre Party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats and about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 4.1 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2019. This is not a statistically significant change compared with May 2019, while it is a statistically significant decrease in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Liberal Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.4 percent to the “do not know” group.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, statistically significant net losses are noted of about 0.7 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.4 percent to the Centre Party, about 0.3 percent to the Christian Democrats, and about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Moderate Party

If an election were held in November 2019, the Moderate Party would receive 18.3 ± 0.8 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared with May 2019, while it is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 1.3 percent from the Christian Democrats and about 0.4 percent from the Centre Party. At the same time, the Moderate Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 1.1 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.7 percent from the Liberal Party and about 0.3 percent from the Social Democrats. At the same time, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 2.3 percent to the Sweden Democrats and about 0.8 percent to the Christian Democrats.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 6.6 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in November 2019. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with May 2019, while it is not a statistically significant change compared with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Christian Democrats have statistically significant net losses of about 2.2. percent to the Sweden Democrats, about 1.3 percent to the Moderate Party, about 0.6 percent to the “do not know” group, and about 0.2 percent to the Centre Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, there are statistically significant net gains of about 0.8 percent from the Moderate Party and about 0.3 percent from the Liberal Party. At the same time, the Christian Democrats have a statistically significant net loss of about 0.5 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 26.3 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in November 2019. This is a statistically significant decrease, both compared with May 2019 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Social Democrats have statistically significant net losses of about 1.3 percent to the “do not know” group and about 0.8 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, a statistically significant net gain of about 0.5 percent from the Centre Party is noted. At the same time, the Social Democrats have statistically significant net losses of about 1.8 percent to the Sweden Democrats, about 0.7 percent to the Left Party, and about 0.3 percent to the Moderate Party.

Left Party

If an election were held in November 2019, the Left Party would receive 8.1 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with May 2019, but it is not a statistically significant change in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Left Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Left Party has statistically significant net gains of about 0.7 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.3 percent from the Green Party, and about 0.2 percent from “other parties”. At the same time, the Left Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Green Party

If an election were held in November 2019, the Green Party would receive 5.1 ± 0.5 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with May 2019, but a statistically significant increase in relation to the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Green Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the “do not know” group.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, the Green Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Left Party.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 22.6 ± 0.7 percent of the votes in an election in November 2019. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both May 2019 and the 2018 parliamentary election.

Compared with May 2019, the Sweden Democrats have statistically significant net gains of about 2.2. percent from the Christian Democrats, about 1.1 percent from the Moderate Party, about 0.8 percent from the Social Democrats, and about 0.3 percent from the Left Party.

Compared with the 2018 parliamentary election, there are statistically significant net gains of about 2.3 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.8 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.5 percent from the Christian Democrats, about 0.2 percent from the Centre Party, about 0.2 percent from the Liberal Party, and about 0.2 percent from the Left Party.

Other parties

The “other parties” group would receive 1.6 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in November 2019. This is not a significant change compared with May 2019 and with the 2018 parliamentary election.

In relation to the 2018 parliamentary election, the “other parties” group has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent to the Left Party.

Figure 1 Net flows from May 2019 to November 2019. Percent of the electorate*

Diagram

* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from May 2019 to November 2019 among the different parties. The figures indicate significant net gains and net losses in percent of the electorate. The flows are based on all those who submitted party answers or answered “do not know” when asked which party they would vote for in an election in each survey round. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with May 2019, because only statistically significant flows are presented and also because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 22 in the table publication published on 10 December.)

Figure 2 Net flows from the 2018 parliamentary election to November 2019. Percent of the electorate*

Diagram

* Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows in the electorate from the 2018 parliamentary election to November 2019 among the different parties. The figures indicate significant net gains and net losses in percent of the electorate. The flows are based on the answers of all the respondents in the survey who stated which party they voted for in the 2018 parliamentary election and which party they would vote for in an election in November 2019. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in parties’ proportion of voters compared with the 2018 election, because only statistically significant flows are presented and also because there are flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table publication published on 10 December.)

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. November 2019

Diagram

 

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. November 2019
PartyWomenMenTotal
 PercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of error
C 8.2 ±0.7 6.4 ±0.7 7.3 ±0.4
L 4.2 ±0.6 4.0 ±0.6 4.1 ±0.4
M 17.5 ±1.2 19.1 ±1.2 18.3 ±0.8
KD 6.8 ±0.7 6.4 ±0.7 6.6 ±0.4
S 28.7 ±1.3 23.9 ±1.2 26.3 ±0.8
V 8.8 ±0.7 7.4 ±0.6 8.1 ±0.4
MP 5.8 ±0.8 4.5 ±0.8 5.1 ±0.5
SD 18.7 ±1.1 26.5 ±1.3 22.6 ±0.7
others 1.2 ±0.4 1.9 ±0.6 1.6 ±0.3

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, by region. November 2019. Percent
Region C L M KD S V MP SD Other
  % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ±
Sydsverige 4.6 ±0.7 3.7 ±0.7 19.0 ±1.7 6.3 ±1.0 25.7 ±2.2 5.3 ±0.7 4.7 ±1.0 29.1 ±2.2 1.5 ±1.0
Småland med öarna 10.2 ±2.1 3.8 ±2.1 13.9 ±2.3 12.4 ±2.3 26.6 ±2.6 6.3 ±1.0 3.0 ±0.9 23.0 ±2.0 0.8 ±0.6
Västsverige 6.6 ±0.8 4.7 ±0.9 18.3 ±1.5 6.6 ±0.7 24.1 ±1.5 8.9 ±1.0 4.4 ±0.9 23.9 ±1.7 2.5 ±0.9
Stockholms Län. excluding Stockholm municipality 7.8 ±1.3 4.0 ±1.1 19.8 ±1.8 6.4 ±1.3 25.1 ±2.3 6.2 ±1.1 7.0 ±1.7 22.1 ±2.3 1.5 ±0.8
Stockholm municipality 11.1 ±2.4 6.1 ±1.2 21.5 ±3.3 3.7 ±1.0 23.9 ±2.9 12.2 ±1.3 7.9 ±1.7 12.9 ±2.4 0.7 ±0.6
Östra Mellansverige 6.0 ±0.7 3.9 ±1.2 21.5 ±2.4 7.0 ±1.1 25.2 ±1.8 7.8 ±0.9 6.3 ±1.7 21.5 ±1.5 0.9 ±0.9
Norra Mellansverige 8.4 ±1.8 1.8 ±0.7 14.2 ±2.0 5.7 ±1.3 29.3 ±2.8 8.3 ±1.1 4.6 ±2.2 25.7 ±2.7 2.0 ±1.3
Mellersta och övre Norrland 7.0 ±1.3 3.8 ±1.0 13.7 ±2.3 5.1 ±1.0 35.3 ±2.6 11.3 ±1.4 2.3 ±0.5 19.5 ±2.2 2.0 ±1.2
Total 7.3 ±0.4 4.1 ±0.4 18.3 ±0.8 6.6 ±0.4 26.3 ±0.8 8.1 ±0.4 5.1 ±0.5 22.6 ±0.7 1.6 ±0.3

Description of the regions

Sydsverige: Blekinge County and Skåne County
Småland med öarna: Jönköping County, Kronoberg County, Kalmar County and Gotland County
Västsverige: Halland County and Västra Götaland County
Östra Mellansverige: Uppsala County, Södermanland County, Östergötland County, Örebro County and Västmanland County
Norra Mellansverige: Värmland County, Dalarna County and Gävleborg County
Mellersta och övre Norrland: Västernorrland County, Jämtland County, Västerbotten County and Norrbotten County

A table of regional survey results from the current and the previous electoral period is available in Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database.

Statistics Sweden’s Statistical Database

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in November 2019 was conducted using a national random sample consisting of 9 149 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these persons are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

The data was collected during the period from 28 October to 26 November.

Among the sample persons, 26.8 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.0 percent were unable to participate, and 19.5 percent did not want to be participate. Total non-response rate was 49.2 percent. There were 4 645 respondents in total, which corresponds to 50.8 percent. Occasionally, persons do not want to answer certain questions. A more detailed presentation of non-response will be made available in connection with the publication on 10 December.

The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Next publishing will be

On 10 December, information about political party preferences in November 2019 will be published, in total and in different demographic groups. Statistics Sweden has opted to split up publication in order to publish “Election today estimate” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to make it clear that it concerns two different measurements. “Election today estimate” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?” while the political party preference is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.

The publication on 10 December also contains information about EU and euro preferences, in total and in different demographic groups.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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