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Party Preference Survey (PSU) , Political party preferences:

Political Party Preference Survey, May 2017

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2017-06-01 9.30

Statistics Sweden’s Party Preference Survey shows that if a Riksdag election were to be held in May then the government parties (S and MP) would receive 35.6 percent of the votes. The Alliance parties (C+L+M+KD) would receive 37.6 percent, the Sweden Democrats 18.4 percent, the Left Party 6.3 percent and other parties 2.2 percent of the votes.

A statistically significant decrease in total for the government parties is noted compared with the Riksdag election in 2014. The Social Democrats would receive 31.1 (±0.9) percent, while the Green Party would receive 4.5 (±0.4) percent if an election were to be held in May 2017.

A statistically significant decrease is noted for the Alliance parties as a block compared with the Riksdag election in 2014. The Centre Party would receive 11.3 (±0.6) percent, the Liberal Party 5.0 (±0.4) percent, the Moderate Party 18.1 (±0.7) and the Christian Democrats 3.2 (±0.4) percent.

The Sweden Democrats would receive 18.4 (±0.8) percent, the Left Party 6.3 (±0.4) percent and other parties would receive 2.2 (±0.3) percent of the votes if there were an election in May. The Feminist Initiative Party is largest among other parties.

The proportion of those in the electorate who are uncertain is about 18 percent in May 2017.

Estimates of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2017

The change refers to comparisons with the 2014 Riksdag election in percentage points. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*). The table below presents the estimations of parties from the latest surveys as well as the latest election results. Changes compared with the 2014 Riksdag election and Political Party Preference Survey in November 2016 can also be seen to the right. Statistically significant changes are marked with an asterisk (*).

Estimates of election results “if an election had been held today”. May 2017

Type of question: Which party would you vote for if an election were to be held in the next few coming days?

 Estimate May 2017Estimated percentElectionChange since
PartyPercentMargin
of error[1]
Nov
2016
May
2016
Nov
2015
May
2015
Nov
2014
May
2014
Nov
2013
May
2013
2014Election
2014
Nov
2016
C
11.3 ±0.6 7.1 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.0 4.9 4.7 4.2 6.1 5.2* 4.2*
L
5.0 ±0.4 5.0 5.4 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.4 6.0 5.4 ‑0.4 0.0
M
18.1 ±0.7 22.8 24.7 23.5 25.6 24.2 22.7 25.5 26.9 23.3 ‑5.2* ‑4.7*
KD
3.2 ±0.4 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.6 ‑1.4* 0.1
S
31.1 ±0.9 29.2 29.5 27.6 30.0 32.2 35.3 34.3 35.6 31.0 0.1 1.9*
V
6.3 ±0.4 7.7 6.8 5.5 6.2 5.7 8.0 6.7 6.4 5.7 0.6* ‑1.4*
MP
4.5 ±0.4 4.5 4.7 5.9 6.6 7.2 8.0 8.8 8.5 6.9 ‑2.4* 0.0
SD
18.4 ±0.8 17.5 17.3 19.9 14.4 12.4 8.1 9.3 7.7 12.9 5.5* 0.9*
other
2.2 ±0.3 3.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 3.2 3.9 1.3 1.1 4.1 ‑1.9* ‑1.0*

1) Margin of error applies to estimations of both percentages and changes. * The change is statistically significant.

The political parties in May 2017

Changes for all parties compared with the survey in November 2016 and with the Riksdag election are described below. The flow of voters among the parties is also described below. Only statistically significant changes in the flow of voters are reported.

Centre Party

If an election were held in May 2017, the Centre Party would receive 11.3 ± 0.6 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2016 and the 2014 Riksdag election.

In relation to November 2016, the Centre Party has statistically significant net gains of about 1.7 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.2 percent from the “do not know” group, about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party, about 0.3 percent from the Sweden Democrats, and about 0.2 percent from the Left Party.

Compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 3.6 percent from the Moderate Party, about 1.0 percent from the Green Party, about 0.9 percent from the Liberal Party, about 0.8 percent from the Christian Democrats, and about 0.6 percent from the Social Democrats.

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party would receive 5.0 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in May 2017. There has been no statistically significant change compared with November 2016 and with the 2014 Riksdag election.

In relation to November 2016, the Liberal Party has a statistically significant net gain of about 0.9 percent from the Moderate Party. At the same time, the Liberal Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.4 percent to the Centre Party.

Compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 0.2 percent from the Christian Democrats and about 0.2 percent from the Green Party. At the same time, the Liberal Party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.9 percent to the Centre Party and about 0.4 percent to the Sweden Democrats compared with the 2014 Riksdag election.

Moderate Party

If an election were held in May 2017, the Moderate Party would receive 18.1 ± 0.7 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with both November 2016 and the 2014 Riksdag election.

In relation to November 2016, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 1.8 percent to the "do not know" group, about 1.7 percent to the Centre Party, about 0.9 percent to the Liberal Party and about 0.7 percent to the Social Democrats.

In relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, the Moderate Party has statistically significant net losses of about 3.6 percent to the Centre Party and about 2.1 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats would receive 3.2 ± 0.4 percent of the votes in an election in May 2017. There is no statistically significant change compared with November. However, there is a statistically significant decrease compared with the 2014 Riksdag election.

Compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net losses are noted of about 0.8 percent to the Centre Party, about 0.5 percent to the Sweden Democrats and about 0.2 percent to the Liberal Party.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats would receive 31.1 ± 0.9 percent of the votes in an election in May 2017. Compared with November 2016, this is a statistically significant increase, while in relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, it is not a statistically significant change.

In relation to November 2016, the Social Democrats have statistically significant net gains of about 1.4 percent from the "do not know" group, about 0.7 percent from the Moderate Party, and about 0.5 percent from the Left Party.

In relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 1.1 percent from the Green Party, and about 0.4 percent from "other parties". At the same time, the Social Democrats have statistically significant net losses of about 1.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats and about 0.6 percent to the Centre Party compared with the Riksdag election.

Left Party

If an election were held in May 2017, the Left Party would receive 6.3 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with November 2016, while it is a statistically significant increase compared with the 2014 Riksdag election.

In relation to November, the Left Party has statistically significant net losses of about 0.5 percent to the Social Democrats and 0.2 percent to the Centre Party.

Compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains are noted of about 1.0 percent from “other parties” and about 0.6 percent from the Green Party. At the same time, the Left Party has a statistically significant net loss of about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats compared with the 2014 Riksdag election.

Green Party

If an election were held in May 2017, the Green Party would receive 4.5 ± 0.4 percent of the votes. This means there is no statistically significant change compared with November, while in relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, this is a statistically significant decrease.

In relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, the Green Party noted statistically significant net losses of about 1.1 percent to the Social Democrats, about 1.0 percent to the Centre Party, about 0.6 percent to the Left Party, about 0.2 percent to the Liberal Party, and about 0.2 percent to the Sweden Democrats.

Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats would receive 18.4 ± 0.8 percent of the votes in an election in May 2017. This is a statistically significant increase compared with both November 2016 and the 2014 Riksdag election.

In relation to November, the Sweden Democrats have a statistically significant net loss of about 0.3 percent to the Centre Party.

Compared with the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net gains of about 2.1 percent are noted from the Moderate Party, about 1.2 percent from the Social Democrats, about 0.5 percent from the Christian Democrats, about 0.4 percent from the Liberal Party, about 0.2 percent from the Left Party, and about 0.2 percent from the Green Party.

“Other parties”

The group “Other parties” would receive 2.2 ± 0.3 percent of the votes in an election in May 2017. This is a statistically significant decrease compared with both November and the 2014 Riksdag election.

In relation to the 2014 Riksdag election, statistically significant net losses are noted of about 1.0 percent to the Left Party and about 0.4 percent to the Social Democrats.

Net flows from November 2016 to May 2017. Percent of the electorate*

* Figure 1 illustrates statistically significant net flows from November 2016 to May 2017 for the various parties. The numbers show significant net losses and net gains in percent of all those who submitted party answers or answered “do not know” to the question on which party one would choose in an election in each survey round. (Unweighted information is available in table 22 in the table publication that is released on 7 June.)

Net flows from the 2014 Riksdag election to May 2017. Percent of the electorate*

* Figure 2 illustrates statistically significant net flows from the 2014 Riksdag election to May 2017 for the various parties. The numbers show significant net losses and net gains in percent of all those who submitted information on the party chosen in the 2014 Riksdag election and on the parties which one would vote for in May 2017. The flows cannot be used to calculate total changes in the proportion of voters for the parties from the 2014 election because there are also flows between parties and the “do not know” group. (Unweighted information is available in table 21 in the table publication that will be released on 7 June.)

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today” (women and men). May 2017

Estimate of election results “if an election had been held today”, women and men. May 2017
PartyWomenMenTotal
 PercentMargin
of error
PercentMargin
of error
PercentMargin
of error
C
12.0 ±0.9 10.7 ±0.8 11.3 ±0.6
L
5.6 ±0.7 4.4 ±0.6 5.0 ±0.4
M
18.2 ±1.1 17.9 ±1.2 18.1 ±0.7
KD
3.3 ±0.6 3.0 ±0.6 3.2 ±0.4
S
32.0 ±1.4 30.2 ±1.4 31.1 ±0.9
V
6.6 ±0.7 6.0 ±0.6 6.3 ±0.4
MP
5.5 ±0.7 3.5 ±0.6 4.5 ±0.4
SD
14.6 ±1.1 22.0 ±1.3 18.4 ±0.8
others
2.3 ±0.5 2.0 ±0.5 2.2 ±0.3

Upcoming publication

On 7 June, information about political party preferences in May 2017 will be published, in total and in different demographic groups. Statistics Sweden has opted to split up publication in order to publish “Election today estimations” as quickly as possible after completed data collection, and also to clarify that we are dealing with two different measurements. “Election today estimations” is measured using the question “Which party would you vote for if there was a Riksdag election in the next few days?” while the political party preference survey is measured using the questions “Do you prefer one of the political parties more than the others?” and “Which party do you prefer the most?”.

The publication on 7 June also contains information about EU and euro preferences, in total and in different demographic groups.

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in May 2017 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 8 973 persons entitled to vote in the Riksdag election, without an upper age limit. From the survey in May 2015 onwards, answers are collected from these persons through telephone interviews and web questionnaires. The introduction of this type of mixed collection was conducted under controlled conditions, and analyses of patterns of response were conducted prior to publication. The sample method is exactly the same as previously, with a random sample from the population register. The difference is that the sample persons were given the option to reply via a web questionnaire. If they did not reply via the web questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 23.7 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.1 percent were too ill to be interviewed and 19.6 percent did not want to be interviewed. The total non-response rate was 46.4 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 808, which corresponds to 53.6 percent. In addition, some persons did not want to answer certain questions. The data was collected during the period from 28 April to 28 May. A more detailed presentation of non-response is made available in connection with the official release on 7 June.

The results are presented in point estimations ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimation ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that with 95 percent probability includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Next publishing will be

The Political Party Preference Survey and EU and euro preferences in May 2017, in total and in different demographic groups, will be published on 7 June 2017 at 09.30.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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