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Political Party Preference Survey in May 2019 – Political party preferences:

Political party preferences in May 2019

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2019-06-11 9.30

The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to any specific level of politics and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.

On 4 June, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in May 2019. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.

The difference between the measurements is:

  • Political Party Preference does not refer to any specific level of politics, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. The results are weighted by region, sex, age, level of education and Swedish/foreign born.
  • The Election today estimate refers to the results of an election held in May. The results are weighted by how people voted in the previous parliamentary election, as well as the question of whether or not a person would vote.

Since the Election today estimate and the Political Party Preference estimate are weighted differently, caution should be applied when making comparisons.

The distribution of political party preferences among women and men in the electorate is shown below.

Estimates of party preferences, women and men. May 2019
Political party preferences in May 2019

Estimates of party preferences, women and men, incl. margin of error. May 2019
PartyWomenMenTotal
 PercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of errorPercentMargin of error
C
9.7 ±1.4 6.2 ±1.0 7.9 ±0.9
L
5.7 ±1.0 4.6 ±0.9 5.1 ±0.7
M
14.2 ±1.6 19.7 ±1.8 16.9 ±1.2
KD
9.7 ±1.3 11.4 ±1.4 10.5 ±0.9
S
33.8 ±2.1 26.8 ±1.9 30.3 ±1.4
V
10.6 ±1.4 7.8 ±1.2 9.2 ±0.9
MP
6.9 ±1.2 3.9 ±0.8 5.4 ±0.7
SD
8.2 ±1.3 17.4 ±1.7 12.8 ±1.0
Other
1.3 ±0.5 2.4 ±0.7 1.9 ±0.5

The table appendix of the Party Preference Survey May 2019 publication presents political party preference among various groups in the population of eligible voters. The sex, age, country of birth and level of education of the supporters of each political party are examined. Estimates in parentheses refer to results from the previous survey.

Political party preferences in May 2019

Centre Party

In May 2019, 7.9 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Centre Party the most. Compared with November 2018 (9.6 ± 0.9 percent), this is a statistically significant decrease.

Support for the Centre Party is greater among women than among men. Support is also greater among those aged 49 years and younger, compared with those aged 50 years and older. The Centre Party’s share of supporters is larger among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. Support for the Centre Party is greater among persons with post-secondary education than among those without post-secondary education.

Liberal Party

In May 2019, 5.1 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters report that they support the Liberal Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2018 (5.6 ± 0.7 percent).

There are no significant differences between the sexes in support for the Liberal Party in May 2019. Furthermore, there are no apparent differences between different age groups or between Swedish born persons and foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, the share of supporters is larger among those with post-secondary education compared with those with a shorter education. The largest level of support is among those with longer post-secondary education.

Moderate Party

In May 2019, 16.9 ± 1.2 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Moderate Party the most. Compared with November 2018 (20.3 ± 1.2 percent), this is a statistically significant decrease.

Support for the Moderate Party is greater among men than among women. Younger people support the Moderate Party to a greater extent than older people. There is no significant difference in support between Swedish born and foreign born persons. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in support in terms of level of education.

Christian Democrats

In May 2019, 10.5 ± 0.9 percent of the electorate report that they prefer the Christian Democrats. Compared with November 2018 (5.2 ± 0.7 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.

There are no apparent differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in May 2019. With regard to age, the largest level of support was among those aged 65 and older. The party has greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in support in terms of level of education.

Social Democrats

In May 2019, 30.3 ± 1.4 percent of the electorate reported that they prefer, or support, the Social Democrats the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2018 (31.0 ± 1.4 percent).

Support for the Social Democrats is greater among women than among men. Older people support the Social Democrats to a greater extent than younger people and the party has greater support among foreign born persons than among Swedish born persons. With regard to the level of education, there is greater support among those with compulsory education than among those with post-secondary education.

Left Party

In May 2019, 9.2 ± 0.9 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Left Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November (9.1 ± 0.9) percent.

Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. With regard to age, the share of those who support the Left Party is greater among those 49 years and younger compared with those aged 50 years and older. The party has greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, there is more support among those with post-secondary education, compared with those with compulsory education or secondary education.

Green Party

In May 2019, 5.4 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Green Party. Compared with November 2018 (4.6 ± 0.6 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.

The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. With regard to age, the share of those who support the Green Party is larger among those aged 64 years and younger compared with those aged 65 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between Swedish born and foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, support for the party is greatest among those with post-secondary education.

Sweden Democrats

In May 2019, 12.8 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2018 (13.0 ± 1.0 percent).

The Sweden Democrats have greater support, about twice as much, among men than among women. Support is greater among those aged 50-64 years, compared with those who are younger. The party has greater support among Swedish born persons than among foreign born persons. With regard to the level of education, support for the party is significantly greater among those with compulsory and upper secondary education than among those with post-secondary education.

EU and euro preferences

The proportion of those who state that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 61.9 ± 1.4 percent in May 2019. The proportion of those who are opposed to EU membership was 13.3 ± 1.0 percent, and the proportion of those who did not have an opinion was 24.7 ± 1.3 percent.

Compared with November 2018, the proportion of those who stated that they are in favour of EU membership has increased, while the proportion of those who stated that they are opposed to EU membership has decreased.

If a referendum on the euro had been held in May 2019, 19.3 ± 1.2 percent would vote “yes” to the euro and 66.0 ± 1.4 percent would vote “no”. 14.7 ± 1.1 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. Compared with November 2018, the proportion of those who state that they would vote “no” to the euro has decreased, while the proportion of those who say they do not have an opinion has increased.

EU and euro preferences, May 2019
Political party preferences in May 2019

Footnote
The following questions were asked:

1. If a referendum were held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?

2. Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?

See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socioeconomic group, sector and trade union membership.

Sweden’s Statistical Database.

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in May 2019 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 092 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these persons are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. The sample persons were first given the option to answer the questions via an online questionnaire. If they did not reply via the online questionnaire, they were contacted via telephone later in the collection period. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and home phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 25.3 percent could not be reached (including persons with unlisted telephone numbers and those without telephones), 3.7 percent were unable to participate and 21.5 percent did not want to be participate. Total non-response rate was 50.4 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 506, which corresponds to 49.6 percent. Occasionally, persons do not want to answer certain questions. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey May 2019”.

The data was collected during the period from 29 April to 28 May. The political campaigns for the European Parliament elections were taking place during the data collection period. However, the respondents were clearly informed that the question about elections referred to a hypothetical parliamentary election. The majority of the answers were collected during the first half of the data collection period.

The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of error. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of error here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Publication

In the table appendix of this publication, results are also presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, form of housing, occupation, socio-economic group, sector and trade union membership.

Political Party Preference Survey, May 2019

Next publishing will be

The November 2019 estimate of election results in parliamentary elections will be published on 3 December 2019.

Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences for November 2019 will be published on 6 December 2019.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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